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Monday News Headlines:

   The FTSE could drop further than the forecast 53 points futures after a bad night in the Far East and falling US futures following news that the Iraq war may take longer than expected.

Royal & Sun Alliance said it would offer stock in a A$2 billion ($1.2 billion) float of its Australian and New Zealand operations.

Powderject now expected to win the contract to supply a smallpox vaccine to be announced tomorrow.

Canary Wharf said that London Underground Limited had served one year's notice to exercise a break clause relating to one of its properties.EMI could be affected by gloomy comments from Andy Lack, the new chief executive of Sony Music , who expects global music sales to fall by up to 15 percent this year, (Financial Times)Austin Reed The Times and Sunday Times reported that there are three potential bidders for the clothes retailer. Thistle Hotels CEO under pressure to quit.  -  ICAP, the world's largest inter-dealer broker, said it expected annual pre-tax profit ahead of  analysts market expectations.

Six continents now expected to get bid in excess of 3 billion pounds for its pubs unit.

Trading Thoughts

A quiet week ahead with little UK corporate or financial data to be released. Fortunately the ex dividends on Wednesday will provide some opportunity to scalp a few points with Legal & General being my preferred target with a 5% dividend.

Monday Cable operator NTL, which is in Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after agreeing a 6.8bn debt-for-equity swap releases annual results. The market will be interested in its chances of a merger with rival TelewestTuesday: Manchester United's season has not been up to its usual standard but they are still expected to report a 9% rise in half-year turnover to 89.3m and a 14% increase in underlying earnings to 36.5m/ Nike has helped with a lucrative merchandising tie-up. The retail sector which has supported the UK economy during the recession may be shown to be weakening with data from the CBI. Also on Tuesday March Manufacturing figures are expected to show a further fall to add to the problems in the badly hit engineering sector. Last month we had a 13 month low and this purchasing managers report may well depress the FTSE.Wednesday Arena Leisure, which has six racecourses will give a progress report on its joint venture with BSkyB and Channel 4 for interactive betting. Broker Baird Equities forecasts a 14% rise in annual sales to 30.2m However, Arena should soon benefit from rules allowing gaming at its racecourses. Full-year figures from Ukbetting on Wednesday are likely to be distorted by the impact of a string of acquisitions which mean it now owns and operates four sports content sites and two betting sites. Thursday: Half-year figures from flooring specialist James Halstead are expected to show a small improvement in profits through cost saving.

Thoughts:

The financial bulletin boards including our own were very quiet last week reflecting the difficult trading conditions. The suddenly changing market sentiment combined with low market volumes reflected the positive and negative news flow from Iraq and caught many traders out. This nervousness meant that profits were often taken to quickly and large losses were easy to make as markets suddenly reversed in direction. On Wednesday at the MoneyAm Level2 meeting I heard from a couple of brokers that many clients had made losses over 50% during the last 2 weeks. It was a very good evening at the London Stock exchange and I really enjoyed meeting old friends and also to put faces to names from some of our newer traders on the BB.  I am already looking forward to our next April meeting in Edinburgh so if you can try & join us!

Next week no doubt the war will once again dominate the market so I will be trading light looking only for the occasional near certainty. The best time for me will be between 8am to 9:30 when direction is more easy to predict and early analysis from results gives good opportunities. For the rest of the day I must learn to try and keep my profits by sitting on my hands and not trade for the sake of it..

Looking at our weekly chart it looks like business as usual with the FTSE back into the long-term downtrend with more chance of falls rather than gains.

Well I'm off to do my Mothers day duties so I hope you all have a pleasant Sunday  and a profitable week ahead.

David

 David (Croc).   David@FTSEDOW,COM  www.FTSEDOW.com   www.traderpc.com

All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.

Sunday News  30th March

Headlines 

Six Continents the owner of All Bar One pubs and InterContinental hotels, may get more than 3 billion pounds for its bar unit as more suitors come forward before next month's spinoff, four analysts said European stocks fell in the first quarter, sending benchmark indexes to the lowest levels in more than six years, as investors anticipated a U.S.-led war with Iraq would stifle spending by companies and consumers U.K. 10-year bonds had their best week in nine months, recovering two-thirds of last week's losses, as concern the war in Iraq may be prolonged prompted investors to seek the relative safety of government debt.

Canary Wharf is set to lose about 10 million pounds  in annual rental revenue from London Underground, as the transport firm plans to move, the Sunday Times reported

Sunday

Times:

Click on the paper name for link.

Cable and Wireless, Sainsbury goes head to head with BT over cheap phone calls Gresham Hotel Group investor leaves bourse London Underground to give up its Canary Wharf headquarters Chorus of failure sets the tone for iTouch silence Associated British Ports Energy experts line up to head Ofgem JJB Sports Tough times for a fashion victim IG Group Electra gambles Arsenal to team up with Wilson Connolly Scotland: Forth Ports chief 'keeping an eye out' for European acquisitions War to push British Airways back into the red BG Group Gas giant plunges into 1bn expansion

Cable and Wireless dials into BT's market Share of the week: Pizza Express Abbey National Bol buys time to lift its UK stock Tullow tops bargain poll Sharewatch: Macfarlane slides Cable and Wireless Charles Dunstone's working day A Share in the Boardroom: French Connection

Directors' Deals: Dairy duo milk profit from Wiseman shares

Sainsbury goes head to head with BT over cheap phone calls Allied Irish Bank Permanent TSB leads mortgage shake-up Taylor Nelson Interpublic division nets buyer Investors want ICI chief painted out as profits fall Paul Durman: ICI's O'Neill faces up to the C&W solution Ryanair cuts Buzz deal by 25%, Personal View: Decision time for airport funding Scots firm is Austin Reed suitor United Business Media Interpublic division nets buyer OFT fears Asda-Tesco price pact over Safeway British Airways: Scramble for the spoils of war

Sharewatch: Independent News and Media still in the mood to expand Kingfisher Red tape holds back the next generation of giants Sharewatch: Lastminute.com

Cable and Wireless Vital statistics BG Group Chapman rides the high seas National Grid Transco On Wall Street: Dominic Rushe: Wall Street's blunder over Arab TV ban BP Suds washes hands of European Taskforce

TIPS: TT Electronics, Woolworths Group, Aberdeen Asset Management, Next, Pilkington, Tate & Lyle

Sunday

Telegraph

Marconi Simpson and Hurn face censure Thistle in white knight talks Oxford Glycosciences: Evans to top Celltech offer

ICI A sorry picture, Don't buy into this myth of stable blue chips Prudential City Comment Safeway Offtrolley haunts Supermarkets

BSkyB Battle for the button British Airways: Blue chips in the junk yard

TIPS: Wolverhampton and Dudley, Compass Group , First Quantum Newport Holdings, Filtonic, Next, Ottakar's, Premier Oil United Business Media, Collins Stewart, Cox Insurance

Vodafone Cheapside Safeway, Arcadia Group It's all clear as mud from the OFT Barclays: Terms of engagement at the AGM Reuters: Terms of engagement at the AGM Cable and Wireless: Will 'stunts not grunts' blow a hole in markets? Reed Elsevier Terms of engagement at the AGM

Six Continents CVC eyes 500m Britvic tonic

Herald

GlaxoSmithKline: Pressure mounts on industry to relinquish its grip on patent rights

Investor

Chronicle

Buy BG Group at 253p - Biocompatibles at 117p - Inter Link Foods at 288p - Systems Union at 58p. Securicor - DRS Data - William Morrison - Compass Group - Hold Celsis  Selfridges - Premier Oil - Goshawk Insurance - Paladin Resources

Sell Charter at 39p - Cyberes at 23p - .Baltimore Technologies - The Bearbull Column: Clinton Cards (CC.L) - putting a value on cash.

Shares Mag 

Sell BP at 417p. Buy iTouch at 16.5p - Landround at 136.5p. Corporate Profiles: Elementis (ELM.L) - Body Shop International (BOS.L).

Nothing Ventured:  GNI:   Bloomberg:   Digital Look:   Citiwire:  The Register News Review:  ShareCrazy:  CNN