Calendar

All GMT

United Kingdom

F)inals (I)nterim

United States

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Europe & World

Mon 21st April

Reports / Data

Easter Holiday

3M

15.00 March leading index

Easter Holiday

Tue 22nd April

Cordiant Comms

March prov M4/M4 lending (0930) March CML mortgage (0930) March BBA/BSA  lending figures (0930) BCC quarterly economic survey (1100)

ebay

12.45 BTM/UBS sales 13.55 Redbook sales

German Apr CPI

07.00 Germany Mar PPI 08.30 Italy April consumer sentiment

Wed 23rd April

Ferraris Group Punch Tavern (I)AGM, Croda, Flomerics, Roxboro , Royal Dutch, Schroders March PSNCR (0930)

09.30 April MPC minutes (last 8-1 unch)

AOL, Dupont, Kodak, Lucent, Xerox

19.00 Fed Beige book

07.45 France Mar final CPI 07.50 France Mar consumer spending 11.30 Italy April cities CPI

Ex Dividend: Aggreko 3.35, Amersham 5.15, Bovis Homes Group 9.4, Cadbury Schweppes 8.0, Hays 1.75, Informa Group 4.94, Johnston Press 3.6 Murray International Trust 5.95, Rolls-Royce 5, Slough Estates 8.55, WM Morrison 2.25, Waste Recycling Group 3.1

Thu 24th April

Allied Domecq (I) DFS Furniture Company (I)

March prov M4/M4 lending (0930 ) March CML mortgage (0930 ) March BBA & BSA lending figures (0930) BCC quarterly economic survey (1100)

Amazon, MGM, Nortel

13.30 March durable goods orders 13.30 March durable goods orders ex transport 13.30 Initial jobless claims w/e 19/4  

08.00 Italy Feb retail sales 08.30 Italy Apr business sentiment 13.30 ECB meeting concludes

Fri 25th April

P&O Princess(I), Regus (Q4),  Autonomy (Q1) WPP Group (Q1) &  Trading StatementAGMs Alliance Trust , Anglo American Pearson

09.30 Q1 preliminary GDP

13.30 Q1 advance GDP 13.30 Q1 price index 14.45 April final Michigan sentiment 15.00 March existing home sales 15.00 March new home sales

0

Trading Thoughts Sunday 20th April

The FTSE as expected remained strong last week and stayed convincingly above its longer term downtrend. Future gains however will probably depend on the DOW which so far have failed to broken through resistance, At the moment  market sentiment remains positive and news of the capture of Saddam Hussein could give the impetus the US market requires to break its negative trend.

It may take some major bad news to remove the Bulls from the driving seat and this could well come from SARS which now appears to be getting out of control in the Far East. China today announced 12 more deaths and more than 300 new cases from the deadly virus. The new numbers raised China's total number of deaths to 79 and cases to 1,807 Already this is badly affecting the Chinese and Hong Kong economy and is starting to impact here with a reduction in tourism and falls in airline bookings.

This news makes me  feel more pessimistic for the week ahead and I expect the rise on the markets to falter with a fall on the FTSE. We have a quiet week with few companies reporting and little financial data. Over the next month I will look for a new sideways trading range to develop between 3650 and 3950 but only if the outbreak of SARS can be controlled.

Monday:  US markets are open on Easter Monday.

Tuesday:  We start the week with Allied Domecq which has also has already said that profits should be similar to the year before.Look out for negative news regarding its pension scheme

Wednesday  Ex dividend day offers some good pickings with Cadbury Schweppes paying 8p and Rolls Royce 5p. 

Punch Taverns are expected to report good 6 months profits in contrast to other companies in the sector which suffered a downturn over the Christmas season. This is due to the the concentration on more traditional pubs which should have been far more resilient to the drop in sales.

Thursday DFS Furniture may forecast difficult times ahead after a previous warning of a slowdown in sales. Profits are likely to be slightly ahead of the previous year at 27 million.

Friday  WPP is expected to report negative revenue growth due to the continuing depression in the advertising market. They will probably be cautious on the outlook for this year but to cheer shareholders will no doubt release an unrealistically optimistic forecast for 2004.

Regus recently delayed annual results so expect some really bad news. They had to sell a large stake in its profitable UK business to desperately raise 58 million pounds. They also had to seek bankruptcy protection in the US so the question now is can they stay in business ?

Autonomy could bring out better than expected results and may be worth a small punt

Now to enjoy some sunshine while it lasts and then head for Sunday lunch here in Le Touquet.

Have a good day and if you have time post your thoughts for the week ahead. (PS if your a lurker please say "Hello", we don't bite!)

David

David@FTSEDOW.COM  www.FTSEDOW.com    All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.