Profit warnings and bid interest .... that's what we like :-))

Currently just sub 70p


There are always bid rumours and this one seems to havre substance - do not see them falling too far from here and will buy against the trade chart - possibly in two tranches


ains

April 23, 2003

Chubb's hopes hit by profit warning
By Mark Court



CHUBB, the security services group, which last week reported a bid approach, gave a heavy profits warning yesterday that sent its shares sharply lower, dashing hopes of a generous offer for the firm.

Last Wednesday Chubb topped the list of FTSE 250 risers after revealing that it was in bid talks. Yesterday it headed the list of FTSE 250 fallers, with a 10 per cent drop, after reporting a raft of setbacks across its businesses that prompted analysts to slash their forecasts.

One analyst said: It looks like theyre running up the white flag and surrendering in the hope of attracting other bidders.

WestLB Panmure cut its profit forecast for the year to next December from 92 million pre-tax to just 70 million to reflect the slowdown at Chubb, whose Asian business has been hit by severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars).

Jonathan Findler, Chubbs chief executive, said: The trading position in Hong Kong in recent weeks has become absolutely dire.

He added that in Hong Kong shops and restaurants are closed, which means they dont need cash picking up, or guards in shopping malls if no one is shopping in them.

Chubb shares fell 8p to 73p, a premium to the 67p at which they traded before talks were announced.

Chubb confirmed that the talks, thought to be with US conglomerate United Technologies Corporation (UTC), are continuing.

Analysts said the profit warning meant UTCs offer would fall short of the 90p-100p a share originally rumoured.

Sounds like the bid rumours are underpinning the share price at the current levels ains. Could be a downdraft if the bid doesn't materialise.

exactly

40 or 50p ains?

Like I say snappy I am tracking them with the intraday trading chart together with alerts on volumes as well as prices + news alerts .... i will let you know after I buy - not before :-))



ains

going for a longski then ains!

order book on the buy side doesn't look to special.

no .... it looks like it will slip a little further

yes that's what I meant, very little support there

even less since i last looked as well

CHB dipping to the southside.

that sparse support in the 68p region on the order book is getting eaten away slowly.

vwap @ 69.24

FRM now hold 53 million shares or 6.43%


intraday graph has levalled off for now - watching for next move


ains

volumes are huge at 21 million traded - US open has helped push them down again .... now off nearly 10% on the day at around 67p

it must still be too early for you to dip your toe ains

yes ..... still tracking ..... no rush at the moment



ains

Chubb

Neutral at 82p says Merrill Lynch (22nd April 2003).

Chubb has warned that profits this year will fall short of expectations as conditions continue to deteriorate in Asia and Onity (US hotel locks) and difficulties remain in the UK and Australia markets.

This has prompted Merrill to lower its forecasts to expect PBT of 83m and EPS of 6.8p this year. The broker has dropped its recommendation to "neutral" in light of these conditions and also to reflect that the shares currently trade above its price objective of 80p.

The sudden climb in the share price follows a recent bid approach for the group. Merrill admits a bidding situation could offer upside, but warns that the shares now factor in a premium and if a deal is not achieved the shares could fall significantly.

LOL !

Twice as nice have you anything to say on any thread other than LOL?

sharp move up this morning stsarting immediately after the bell - plus 6.11% and has been a tad higher with 11 million traded .... not unexpected bounce after the original hot money exitted


ains

Looks like we have seen the high for the day