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Mon 28th April

Reports / Data

Cordiant Communications (F),

RBOS (AGM), Scottish & Newcastle Trading Statement

11.00 UK April/Q2 CBI Industrial Trends

MacDonalds (Q1), Procter & Gamble (Q1)

13.30 March Personal Income 13.30 March Personal Consumption

Aventis (Q1), ABN AMRO (Q1)

Tue 29th April

Amvescap (Q1,  BP (Q1), BAT (Q1),   McCarthy & Stone (I) Character Group (I), , European Motor Holdings (F),

Highland Gold Mining (F),  London Securities (F),

Numis Group (I),  Oxford Glycosciences (F), Westbury (F)

BAE Systems (AGM), Bradford & Bingley (AGM)

Northern Rock (AGM),  Singer & Friedlander (AGM),

Smith & Nephew (AGM), Kidde (AGM), Corus (AGM)

HBOS (AGM)

09.30 March Retail Sales flat exp. 10.30 April Gfk Consumer Confidence 7.0 exp.

Bristol-Myers (Q1), JDS Uniphase (Q1)

13.30 Q1 Employment Cost Index q/q 0.8% exp. 13.30 April Consumer Confidence 69.4 exp.

Alcatel (Q1), Ericsson (Q1), SAP (Q1)

09.00 EMU March M3 3m

Wed 30th April

AstraZeneca (Q1)  GlaxoSmithkline (Q1) Whitbread (F), Blacks Leisure (F),

Bookham Technology (Q1), Bertam Holdings (F),

Game Group (F),  M), Rowe Evan Investments (F), TTP Communications (F)

Legal & General New Business

Aggreko (AGM), Amvescap AGM), Capita (AGM), RAC (AGM)

Jardine Lloyd Thompson (AGM), Provident Financial (AGM), 

15.00 April Chicago PMI 48.3 exp.

Deutsche Bank (Q1), Schering (Q1)

11.00 EMU April Flash CPI 2.2% y/y exp. 11.00 EMU April Economic Sentiment 98.8 exp. 11.00 EMU April Business Climate 0.58 exp.

Ex Dividend: Balfour Beatty (3.05), Barr Group (15.75), CI Traders (2), Carillion (3.3), Centrica (2.6), Computacentre (5.8), First Active (EUR 0.103), Hitachi Credit (5.9),

Independent News & Media (EUR 0.053), Intercare Group (3.2), International Energy (3.2), Keller Group (6.6), Kerry Group (EUR 0.079), Kidde (1.7),

Kiln (0.5), LA Fitness (0.44), Millennium & Copthorne (8.3), Northern Rock (13.7), Novar (6.6), Royal & Sun Alliance (2), SVB Holdings (0.25), Senior (1.35),

Singer & Friedlander (5.5), TDG (7.4), Telemetrix (2.15), Tibbett Britten (17.4), Weir Group (8.75), Wilson Bowden (20.5), Wilson Connolly (4.65), Xstrata (US$ 0.2)

Thu 1st May

ICI (Q1), Andrew Sykes (F), Laura Ashley (F),

John David Group (F), Shire Pharmaceuticals (Q1),

Silentnight (F)

09.30 April Manufacturing PMI 46.7 exp. 09.30 March Net Consumer Credit 1.6bn exp. 11.00 April Distributive Trades

Exxon Mobil (Q1), Tyco International (Q1)

13.30 Initial Claims (w/e 26/4) 428k exp. 13.30 Q1 Productivity +2.4% exp. 15.00 April Manufacturing ISM 47.0 exp. 15.00 March Construction Spending +0.1% exp.

Fri 2nd May

Shell (Q1),  Unilever (Q1), Bodyshop International (F),

Telewest Communications (Q1)

Chevron Texaco (Q1)

13.30 April Non-Farm Payrolls 55k exp. 15.00 March Factory Orders 0.5% exp.

09.00 EMU April Manufacturing PMI 48.9 exp. 11.00 EMU March PPI

Trading Thoughts Sunday 27th April

The reporting season starts with Blue Chip results from the Oil & Pharmaceutical sectors. The oil companies could rise in advance on expectations of bumper profits.

United States Next Week: We have data on personal income and spending on Monday, consumer confidence on Tuesday and the Chicago PMI on Wednesday. Also on Wednesday Alan Greenspan's testimony on U.S. monetary policy at 1400 GMT on Wednesday may offer clues on future interest rate policy and the economy's health. The markets will also brace themselves for more bad news from U.S. non-farm payrolls numbers to be published on Friday.Monday If the markets open positive the oil companies should rise in advance on expectations of bumper profits Tuesday: BP release 1st quarter results which should show profits higher as oil prices soared with the war in Iraq and problems in Nigeria. Wednesday:

Watch out for March's UK retail sales figures. Whitbread's Travel Inns and Beefeater should not have suffered from the economic slowdown but I wonder if a warning may be issued on the potential effect of SARS on their Marriott hotels ? Analysts expect full-year profits up from 213m to 222m. (Possible short) Glaxo SmithKline's first-quarter figures on Wednesday are likely to have been affected by the weakness of the US dollar and generic competition. Also a below-average flu season may have affected sales. However it is expected to improve pre-tax profits to 1.66bn from 1.59bn a year earlier.

AstraZeneca, which reports in dollars, will escape the currency problems but does have problems in the form of generic competition to its ulcer pill Prilosec.Thursday ICI will be interesting following its shock profits warning that knocked 39% off its share price last month. The company is due to issue first quarter figures but has already warned that problems at its will have reduced profits on a year earlier from 66m to 50m. Difficult to call but if they can show a plan to cut costs and remove loss making parts of the business the share could bounce.Friday: As with BP profits Shell should produce a strong set of first-quarter results although oil production growth may be limited. Unilever are expected to confirm a rise in sales by 4% to 5% in the first quarter but slightly lower profits. Usually a safe trade.

Just before I start packing to leave for Scotland some quick thoughts on the direction of the market. The last couple of few weeks we have a been lucky to guess it about right but this week we do have some conflicting signals to contend with. The chart shows that the FTSE is still above the longer term downtrend channel suggesting caution on shorting on the market. In addition looking at the companies about to report I can see most of them having results within or better than market expectations. However I feel the market will start to be more far more concerned on the outlook rather than the results. This will develop on fears that SARS will start to have a growing impact on the world economy. A good example could come on Wednesday when Whitbreads release final results which could indicate a future slowdown in bookings for the Marriotts chain of hotels. I also feel that Hedge, pension funds & mutuals may decide this recent rise in the markets is an ideal time to reduce equity holdings and will become big sellers on any signs of nervousness. From this I feel that the balance is in favour of a falling market next week with the FTSE tempted to head back home to the long-term downtrend. If I get chance on Monday I may look at shorting Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) currently at 349p.

Wishing you all the best for the week ahead

David

David@FTSEDOW.COM  www.FTSEDOW.com    All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.