ABN Amro recommending a switch into Northern Foods from Geest.
ABN argued that the bid speculation had opened up "a sizeable and seemingly
unjustified valuation gap" between Geest and Northern Foods. Northern Foods is on a 2003/4 price-earnings ratio of 8.3 against Geest's 2003 ratio of 10.6, ABN noted. It also highlighted that the former offers a 7 pct yield compared to Geest's 4.5 pct.
"To our mind the magnitude of this valuation gap is unjustified and we see a
trading opportunity here to switch out of Geest into Northern Foods," it
concluded.

Change of management here. I feel the shares should be doing better but I suppose it takes time for new brushes to sweep clean.

NFDs has just gone ex div, hence the drop in price.

If you look at the price over the last couple of years, it normally continues to drop after going ex div,
(I presume until people notice it, and think it is "cheap" in relationship to the divi return).
It then heads north again until it goes ex divi, and then down again etc. etc. etc.

I have some of these in my SIPP for the dividend return, and hope that one day others
notice the company. At the end of the day we all eat food, unfortunetly this company
is involved in "processed foods" rather than fresh.
But it has a few known brands - which includes Goodfellas and San Marco pizzas,
Ross and Dalepak burgers, the Dalepak vegetarian range, Hollands pies and
Fletchers and Kara bakery products in the food service market

Not good! Divi looks good but not covered by earnings and due, in my mind, for a hefty cut next time!

The company said today: 'Sales in the first two months of the fourth quarter
have been very disappointing with underlying sales for continuing operations
unchanged on the prior year.

'This compares with growth of over 3 pct in the first nine months of the year.'

Within the group, Northern Foods said its bakery division has been seriously
hit by a downturn in the biscuit market and widespread discounting, with biscuit sales down 12 pct year on year in January and February combined.

The group said its chilled foods division has also suffered attrition in both
its volumes and margins. Sales of pastry products down 11 pct in January and
February, 'reflecting changing eating habits in certain product areas.'

And overall, the company said it is making slow progress on passing on
increased energy costs in product price increases.

More brightly, the company said its frozen foods division is 'perform well in
very competitive trading conditions.'

As it announced the deterioration in its performance in the fourth quarter, the group said it continues to review its business model, product portfolio and cost base and will announce the results of the review with its results for the year on 31 May.

On that review, Northern Foods said that whilst it is making good progress on
addressing its underlying structural issues, 'this is not yet being reflected in an improving financial performance.'"

begining to look ripe

I've bought into these this week - a bit boring for most, but they are coming off of their lows, have recently revamped the Fox's biscuit brand and are about to re-vamp the Goodfella's Pizza range. They have also just commenced a 10 year contract with BA (maybe not so good). Also a good dividend yield.

Interim management Statement.

Overview

* Trading as expected in challenging conditions

* Q1 Group like for like sales* 1.6% lower, reflecting:

+ Chilled like for like sales* up 14.3%, with Sandwiches & Salads
continuing to perform strongly and Ready Meals performance showing
steady progress

+ Bakery like for like sales* down 5.6% as expected, as a result of our
planned reduction in promotional activity; margins remain strong

+ Frozen like for like sales* down 24.9% following the planned exit of
marginal business and of the Birds Eye contract in Frozen; and the
transition to our new Goodfella's pizza brand

* Increased investment in the current half year:

+ Automation: continued investment in technology for Fox's Biscuits

+ Brands: major relaunch for Goodfella's pizza

* With a strong financial position (net debt reduced by approximately 6% over
the prior year) the Group is well positioned going forward

Ex divi tomorrow.

Proposed Merger Between Greencore and Northern Foods


For immediate release

PROPOSED MERGER BETWEEN
GREENCORE AND NORTHERN FOODS TO CREATE ESSENTA FOODS

Highlights

* Recommended merger between Greencore and Northern Foods. Combined Group to
be called Essenta Foods

* Greencore and Northern Foods shareholders will, on a fully diluted basis,
each hold approximately 50% of the enlarged share capital

* The Merger offers substantial benefits for shareholders, customers and
employees:

+ combines two highly complementary businesses to create an operator with
an enhanced presence in the attractive private label convenience foods
category with significant branded positions in Biscuits (Fox's) and
Frozen Pizzas (Goodfella's)

+ provides the ability to drive cost efficiencies and combine
complementary customer bases and provides opportunities to deepen
relationships with key customers

+ cost synergies of approximately 40 million per annum are expected to
be realised within three years

+ provides a stronger credit profile which will help ensure greater
financial and strategic flexibility in future

* Patrick Coveney will be the Chief Executive Officer and Simon Herrick will
be the Chief Financial Officer

* Essenta Foods will have a premium listing and be traded on the main market
of the London Stock Exchange. It is anticipated that Essenta Foods will be
included in the FTSE UK Index Series on completion of the Merger

* Letters of intent in support of the Merger have been received from
shareholders currently holding 30.29% of Greencore's and 11.81% of Northern
Foods' existing issued share capital

* The Merger is expected to complete during the second quarter of 2011