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Mon 19th May

Reports / Data

BCC((F), British Airways(F), Detica Group(F), Imagination Technology(F), Luminar (F), Mice Group(F)

Cambridge Antibody Technology (I), Torotrak AGMs, GlaxoSmithKline, Prezzo,

Sirius Financial Solutions, Marlborough Stirling

Hewlett Packard, Home Depot, Staples

May 19 01:00 AM Leading Indicators

Tue 20th May

Care UK (I), Granada(I), Paragon Group(I), Shaftesbury(I), Telewest Communications (i) Aviva (F), Business Post Group(F), EMI Group(F), Glenmorangie (F), Marks & Spencer(F)

Cranswick(F), EMI (I), Marks & Spencer (F) VT (I), Connaught, iTouch (Q1), Glenmorangie AGMs Glanbia, Hill & Smith, Metalrax, Spirent

ICI AGM, Intermediate Capital Group AGM

UK HICP, RPI

2:00 PM EST Treasury Budget 11:45 Weekly US retail chain store sales index

Wed 21st May

Compass Group May 21 (I), Enterprise Inns May 21 (I) International Power May 21 (Q1), MMO2 (F), National Grid Transco (F), Carlton Communications (I),

Countryside Properties (I), Enterprise Inns (I),

International Power (I), ScS Upholstery (I), Investec (I) Land Securities (F), Deutsche Equity Income Trust, Medisys

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels AGM Coats PLC AGM

UK PSNCR April, BOE Minutes

Ex Dividend: Awaiting Data

Thu 22nd May

AGM

BPB (F), Burberry (F), Land Securities (F) Royal & Sun Alliance (Q1), InterContinental Hotels (I) Mitchells & Butler (I), Royal & Sun Alliance  - Q1 BT (F), Findel(F) Kingston Communications(F), Pillar Property (I) Scottish & Southern (F), United Utilities (F) Uniq(F), Merrydown, Celsis International, Genus

Brake Brothers, Informa Group Marshalls, Michael Page Group Yule & Catto Company, Alfred McAlpine Alliance Unichem, Amlin, Geest, ICI, Meggit, Michael Page Group, Novar, Tomkins, Yule & Catto Company

Retail sales April

CBI Industrial Trends May RICS House Price Survey

8:30 AM EST Initial Claims

Fri 23rd May

AGM

Man Group (F), Scottish & Southern Energy (F) Six Continents (I), United Utilities (F)

Scottish Radio (I), Castings(F) Wolves & Dudley (F)

AGM Celltech Group Colt Telecom Group, Fleming Mercantile Investment Trust International Power, Meggit WM Morrison Supermarkets, Rotork Scottish Radio Holdings FY2003 interim earnings results Shell, WM Morrison Supermarkets

UK GDP

Trading Thoughts Sunday 18th May

In last week's thought we looked for a break above 4000 for the FTSE with Bank shares tracking the markets higher. Despite a few shaky moments this went according to plan with gains on Barclays & Lloyds as the blue chip index closed above the psychologically important 4K level for the first time since 6 January. 

This correlation with tracker stocks can be very useful for spotting buy & sell opportunities. Tracker stocks do get out of sync with the main index on occasion as can be seen on the HSBC 1 year chart overlaid on to the 1 year FTSE chart. The yellow blobs indicate where the stock had moved away from the main index sufficient to attract buyers who quickly brought it back into line.

MondayBritish Airways start the week with a bang when they show the damage caused by the double whammy of the war in Iraq and, more recently SARS. This combined with ever increasing competition leading to lower margins has led to substantial cost cutting. The forecasts for tomorrow vary widely with markets looking for year end profits anywhere form 56m to 225m. The longer term forecast will be of great interest and it may be a good idea to fasten your seatbelts! TuesdayMarks & Spencer are expected to announce full-year profits at the top end of expectations - which ranged from 710m to 720m up from 646 million on the previous year. Marks & Spencer will join the ranks of the credit card giants this week when it unveils details of its nationwide loyalty scheme. Wednesday

MM02: The mobile-phone company spun off from BT, is expected this week to announce a multi-billion pound loss. Analysts are not expecting too many surprises when National Grid Transco reports with pre-tax profits to come in at 1.23bn - compared to 797m last year. The figure is expected to reflect progress on cost savings with the merger with Lattice. ThursdayBT releases final results which are expected to show profits of 1.86bn, up from last year's 1.46bn. But there could also be grim news on the state of the pension fund which could knock a big hole in the profits. It is hoping to persuade credit agency Moody's to improve its rating, which would save it more than 30 million a year. This is because interest rates on much of BT's borrowings depend on its credit rating. The company must announce the FRS-17 standard valuation of the fund measured on March 31 which is expected to show a massive deficit as high as 12.5 billion. BT is paying hundreds of millions a year - including 600 million last year - to make good the shortfall. This time, there will be a sizeable drop in the fund value because of the collapse in global stock markets since 1999, but the actuary's report is expected to argue that such swings tend to even out over the long term. BT is hoping this argument will help convince Moody's that it is due for a credit upgrade.

InterContinental Hotels interims are certain to reflect the downturn in the industry caused by the lead up to war in Iraq and the outbreak of the SARS virus in Asia. These are the first results since the demerger with six continents and the are expected to show a substantial fall in profitability with figures of around 80m. The other half of the former SixContinents - Mitchells & Butlers announce maiden interim results . Since March better weather and the end of major fighting in Iraq have eased pressure on the firm and sales should show some pick-up at the end of the period with pre-tax profits of 110m.

Its going to be difficult to keep to keep our recent run of good luck running when forecasting the week ahead. At some point this rally will fail and we will probably start to see a period of sideways trading unless there is very bad geo-political news.  However I must go with the trend and bias my trades to LONGS where I see greater upside potential greater at the present time with 4200 a realistic target.

Looking forward to reading your views and wishing you good fortune for the week ahead

David

David@FTSEDOW.COM  www.FTSEDOW.com    All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.