Calendar

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United Kingdom

F)inals (I)nterim

United States

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Europe & World

Mon 26th

Reports / Data

Holiday

Holiday

09.00 EMU May West German IFO Expectations 94.8 exp.

Tue 27th

Vodafone Group (F), 10.7m exp. Macdonald Hotels (I), RM Plc (I)

Intermediate Capital (AGM)

15.00 US May Consumer Confidence 84.0 exp. 15.00 US April Existing Home Sales 5.7m exp. 15.00 US April New Home Sales 983k exp.

Wed 28th

British Land (F) PBT 168m exp.Emap (F). PBT 128m exp.GUS (F) PBT 635m exp. Northern Foods (F) PBT 99m exp. De La Rue (F), ICAP (F),  Peacock Group (F), Premier Farnell (Q1), Shanks Group (F),  Skyepharma (AGM), Marshalls (AGM), Aegis (AGM), Bodycote (AGM)

13.30 US April Durable Goods Orders 1.1% exp.

09.00 EMU April M3 3m ma 7.8% exp. 11.00 EMU May Flash CPI y/y 1.9% exp.

Ex Dividend: A&J Mucklow (5.03), Brammer (3), Connaught (2.6), Corin Group (0.6), DCC (EUR 0.18), Debenhams (5.3), Geest (11.75), Gleeson (6.75), Highbury House (0.5), J Sainsbury (11.36), MFI Furniture Group (1.6), Marks & Spencer (6.5), National Grid Transco (10.34), Next (21), Premier Farnell (5), Taylor Woodrow (5.2), Topps Tiles (3), United Drug (EUR 0.08), WH Smith (6)

Thu 29th

Daily Mail & General Trust (I) PBT 81m exp.Electrocomponents (F) PBT 99m exp.Invensys (F) PBT 134m exp. Pennon Group (F) PBT 75.4m exp.Pilkington (F) PBT 152m exp, Wagon (F) PBT 12.7m exp. Big Food Group (F), Brewin Dolphin (I), Bristol Water (F), BTG (F), Caledonia Investments (F), Chloride Group (F), Lonmin (I), Marconi (F), Merant (F), MyTravel Group (I), New Look Group (I),

Plasmon(F), Securicor (I), William Hill (AGM), Rentokill AGM & Trading Statement, Collins Stewart (AGM), Rolls Royce (AGM)

10.30 UK May GfK Consumer Confidence 3.0 exp.

13.30 US Q1 Preliminary GDP 1.8% exp. 13.30 US Initial Claims (w/e 24/5) 420k exp.

Ascension Day Holiday in Parts of the EU

Fri 30th

Synstar (I) PBT 9.55m exp. Airsprung Furniture (F), Fuller Smith & Turner (F),

Proteome Sciences (F)

13.30 US April Personal Income flat exp. 13.30 US April Personal Consumption 0.1% exp. 14.45 US May Final Michigan Sentiment 93.0 exp. 15.00 US May Chicago PMI 49.0 exp.

G8 Meeting Saturday - Monday

Trading Thoughts Sunday 25th May

In last weeks thoughts we decided to guess on a FTSE rise based on the current short term (Blue line).  Again we managed to get away with it by the skin of our teeth after a sharp early fall on Friday left the UK market up only a couple of points on the week.

Looking at next week we have a busy calendar with several interesting companies reporting.

Tuesday: The weeks starts with a bang when Vodaphone release final results! The previous interims surprised the city with a 41% jump in underlying half-year profits to 4.25bn and forcing the City to raise full-year profit forecasts. Look for expected figures of around 8.2bn (compared with 6.2bn last year) with increasing revenues per user, currently the industry's key measure of success. Wednesday:Emap publisher and radio station operator are trying to offset the effects of the advertising slowdown by growing its magazine circulation revenues. The company said in its Interim results in March that while revenues were down in its radio stations, its consumer media division had seen solid growth with circulation and advertising holding up well. Analysts predict final profits of around 128m against last years 151m but I would not be surprised for them to announce a more optimistic future outlook on advertising revenues. This could give a boost to Pearson & WPPGus also release finals and are expected to show a healthy boost in annual profits to 635m from 522m last time. They do have a majority stake in Burberry and Argos is expected to show growth above 7%. The city will be looking for news on how well it has integrated its latest acquisition Homebase DIY.

Premier Farnell release interims and this could give a good pairs trade on ex FTSE100 company Electro components who release results the day after!

MyTravel Interim results will be closely examined for signs of progress in refinancing the debt-ridden company. A significant move, particularly a deal on its 250m worth of convertible* bonds*, would give the shares a boost. They could report a slightly rosier outlook with bookings slightly up over the last couple of weeks. The question is whether this comes to late for the company. MyTravel remains a high-risk play, despite closing at just 18p.Northern Foods indicated in January that results would be broadly in line with those last year after tough competition hit biscuit sales. Higher cocoa prices because of the war in the Ivory Coast have also hurt its margins and they are expected to show profits down on last year's 101m to 99m. Thursday:Invensys shares are likely to show a massive fall in profits from last years 549 million. Estimates are wide between 124m up to 250m but the lower end of that range is more likely. To try and salvage the situation it has been selling off parts of the business and will go forward into the new year only half the size. Once a company starts a series of bad news it usually continues. But a report in today's Sunday Observer talks of a shock 1bn loss!Pilkington is set to post a fall in full-year profits down to 152m from 183m a year earlier. This follows problems with its German building products and a weak US construction market.

This weeks FTSE chart shows the recent uptrend is still intact although resistance at 4000 is proving difficult to break and may be just to difficult. The ghost image is an overlay of the S&P 500 and shows that surprisingly it seems to have been trading strangely behind the FTSE by 2 to 4 weeks over the past year. This could have been used during periods of divergence for a very good profit with the cross over occurring about 6 times and a very good spread.

Well its decision time on next weeks market direction and its far from easy!  Of course its more likely to trade sideways but if pressed I would favour a gain with the 4000 under threat.  Also I will be looking for a bounce in Media stocks especially Pearson also possibly Granada, Carlton & Sky.

Hope you all enjoy your holiday weekend and have a profitable week ahead

David

David@FTSEDOW.COM  www.FTSEDOW.com    All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.