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Mon 2nd June

Reports / Data

Christian Salvesen (F) 19m exp.Acal (F), Courts (F),

Dawson Holdings (I), Ryanair (F)

09.30 May M0 Money Supply y/y 1.9% exp. 09.30 Apr Net Consumer Credit 1.7bn exp. 09.30 May CIPS Manufacturing PMI 48.8 exp.

15.00 May Manufacturing ISM 47.0 exp. 15.00 Apr Construction Spending 0.1% exp.

Munich Re (Q1)

08.55 German May Manufacturing PMI 46.8 exp. 09.00 May Manufacturing PMI 48.2 exp. 11.00 May Economic Confidence 98.0 exp. 11.00 May Flash CPI y/y 1.9% exp.

Tue 3rd

BAA (F) 529m exp. Carphone Warehouse (F) 57m exp.FKI (F) 83m exp. British Energy (F), BSS Group (F),

Burtonwood Breweries (F), East Surrey Holdings (F),

Great PortlandEstates (F), ITE Group (I), Merchant Retail (F), South Staffordshire (F), Umeco (F), Victrex (I)

Schroders Q1 Trading Statement

Nestor Healthcare (AGM)

Laurent Perrier (F)

11.00 Apr PPI m/m 0.5% exp. Europe: 11.00 Apr Unemployment Rate 8.7% exp.

Wed 4th

AWG (F) 85m exp.Cable & Wireless (F) 394m exp. Expro International (F), Kingfisher (Q1),

Quintain Estates (F), Telecom Pl(F)

British Airways May Traffic

09.30 CIPS Services PMI 51.1 exp. 11.00 May CBI Distributive Trades

13.30 Q1 Revised Productivity +1.8% exp. 15.00 May Non-Manufacturing ISM 51.7 exp.

08.55 German May Services PMI 45.2 exp. 09.00 Apr Services PMI 48.3 exp.

11.00 Mar Retail Sales m/m 0.8% exp

AbacGroup (3.4), Aegis Group (0.75), Alexon Group (4.67), Austin Reed (5.5), Avon Rubber (3.5), Bellway (6.2), Big Yellow Group (1), Body Shop (3.8), Bodycote (3.85), Brixton (7.05),  Camellia (66), Care (0.9), City Centre Restaurants (2.75), Clarkson (9), Cobham (18), Croda International (7.59), Daily Mail & General Trust (3.15), Development Securities (3.35), Enterprise Inns (5.7), Euromoney Institute (5), Findel (9.8), Greencore Group (EUR 0.051), Hunting Plc (2), Intertek Testing (5.2), John Menzies (12.6), Linton Park (13), Luminar (8.06), Macdonald Hotels (2.62), Maclellan Group (0.5), Malcolm Group (3.3), Marshalls (6.7), Matalan (5.4), Mcbride (0.8), Mears Group (0.75), Peacock Group (3.9), Punch Taverns (2.1), RM Plc ((0.95), S&U (20), Scottish Radio (6.5), Shaftesbury (1.375), Signet (1.8), Silentnight Holdings(6), Town Centre Securities (1.65), Vodafone (0.898), WPP Group (3.67), Westbury (8.25), Wolverhampton & Dudley (10.9), Yule Catto & Co (7.4)

Thu 5th

Boots (F) 545m exp. Johnson Matthey (F) 190m exp. Kelda (F) 155m exp. Tate & Lyle (F) 166m exp. Helical BAR (F), PHS Group (F), Signet Group (Q1),

SSL International (F)

00.01 BRC Shop Price Index

12.00 BOE Rate Announcement

13.30 Initial Claims (w/e 31/5) 419k expa 15.00 Apr Factory Orders 0.9% exp.

11.00 Q1 Preliminary GDP q/q 0.0% exp. 11.00 German Apr Factory Orders m/m 0.5% exp.

12.45 ECB Rate Announcement

Fri 6th

Hardys & Hansons (I), Jarvis Hotels (F), Oxford Instruments (F), Wincanton (F), Youngs & Co Breweries (F)

13.30 May Non-Farm Payrolls 26k exp. 20.00 Apr Consumer Credit +$1.9bn exp.

Trading Thoughts

Sunday1st June

Next week the recent gains on the FTSE and its ability to hold above the pivotal 4,000 level will be tested by interest rate decisions and the release of figures form Cable & Wireless which started this year's rally on UK markets. Clues to the recent state of the retail sector will be highlighted by results form Boot's, Courts furniture the perfume retailer Merchant Retail

Monday:

April manufacturing/industrial production (0830 GMT) will be eagerly awaited and could show a glimmer of hope after previous bad figures.

TuesdayBAA: airports operator will show the impact over the war in Iraq and the Sars virus will have an impact on full-year results.  However the damage is likely to have been cushioned from the slump in travel by a rise in budget airline travel. As a guide the city expects it to post about a three percent rise in annual profit

Carphone Warehouse reports annual figures on Tuesday and no surprises are expected as it released a trading update in March where it said trading had been in line with expectations. This would suggest pre-tax profits for the year of 55m to 58m. It also said it intends to pay its first dividend.

FKI engineering report full-year results which are expected to show Trading has been tough and analysts expect pre-tax profits before exceptional items to show a sharp fall from 135m to 80m. The group announced in February that it was closing its London-based Hawker Siddeley power stations transformer business, and a trading statement last month told investors to expect an exceptional charge of 18m from the closure.

Wednesday:

Cable & Wireless is this year's best-performing blue chip stock with a 120 percent rally. It is due to deliver a strategic review alongside full-year results. Investors expect to hear some very good news to justify this leap in its share price. This could include a boost in revenue from its profitable divisions and news could be  announce of a wide ranging restructuring and disposals of underperforming units and the sale or closure of its problem divisions. Shares this week leapt to over 100 pence to their best level since November so taking into account most of the good news to be released. This will definitely be on my potential short list!

AWG Shares in the water company have fallen in recent weeks as hopes faded that German bank West LB might take over the firm. Earnings suffered after a takeover of Scottish construction firm Morrison failed to meet forecasts. The hope for the company is that the government may release some of its control on pricing and increase the profitability of the water sector making them an attractive target.

Kingfisher reports first-quarter figures where the results are expected to show a strong performance by DIY chain B&Q as the quarter, which covers February to April, contains the key Easter period. However the electrical division including comet which is to be demerged could show further pressure on sales.

Thursday:

Boots slashed 700 jobs and announced the closure of its wellbeing services operation in March when it predicted profits for the full year to March 31 would come in at the lower end of expectations with a pre-tax profits slip from 639m a year ago to 545m. The expected drop in year earnings will highlight the struggle it has to meet competition from major UK supermarkets as they expand into healthcare. Recent price cuts aimed at boosting sales will have eroded profit margins and I can see little to justify the recent rise in the share price unless someone wants to buy the retail side of the business.

SSL International also reports on Thursday and it has previously stated it wants to concentrate on condoms and corn plasters and to get rid of its rubber gloves businesses which does raise some rather bizarre thoughts..

Most economists expect UK rates to be left on hold, but there is an outside chance of a 25-point cut. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points.

Thoughts: Last week we went for a rise on the markets with the FTSE perhaps possibly closing above 4000.  This week the question is can it stay there?  Our recent run of good calls is based on the most basic of fundamentals which is not to go against the trend. The charts above show clearly that for the short term the longer downtrend has been broken. In the absence of  any probable bad news and continuing better than expected company results I will look for further gains towards 4200. There does appear to be a strong resistance level at this point which may halt further progress.

Day trading can be dangerous not only to your pocket but also to your health as we sit for extended periods in front of our screens. Traders we know such as Learjet have become seriously ill due to sitting in cramped conditions for long periods.  Click here for further information on Deep Vein Thrombosis  

So its off to the gym for me and a new decision  to do far more exercise!

Looking forward to your market thoughts & wishing you all the best for the week ahead

David

David@FTSEDOW.COM  www.FTSEDOW.com    All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.