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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 16th June (BA.)
Crocodile - 15 Jun 2003 11:19
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S&P &Futures (Click for latest)
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Pre Market Futures (7:30) | |
| FTSE | -9 | ||
| TechMark | -2 | ||
| DAX | -11 | ||
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Hang Seng -16
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Nikkei -140
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DOW | -27 |
| S&P | -2.7 | ||
| Nasdaq | -4.5 | ||
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News Headlines: BT: to make savings of 1 Billion pounds per year by 2009.BT also intends to build upon its 1 million broadband customers, targeting 5 million customers by 2006, equating to around GBP1billion of profitable revenue annually. Aggregate Industries: Says the UK outlook is strong but the US trading is lower than expected due to weather conditions in the US . A long Winter and wet Spring. The chief executive of BAE has poured cold water on speculation it is in merger talks with big defence companies in the United States. Airbus says it will pass Boeing as the Worlds largest plane maker. Xstrata has won approval from the Queensland Supreme Court to go ahead with a A$3.4 billion takeover of Australian miner MIM Holdings. ROLLS ROYCE, GKN, SMITHS GROUP The Times newspaper said aeroengine maker Rolls Royce is expected to be a contender to supply engines to Airbus, which told a newspaper it had won a multi-billion dollar order for 41 passenger jets from Dubai-based airline Emirates. Engineering groups GKN and Smiths Group are also set to benefit, the paper added. CORDIANT CRI.L France's Publicis PUBP.PA is set to take control of Cordiant, beating an offer from industry giant WPP , the Independent newspaper reported on its Web site on Sunday. Majestic Wine annual profit increased by 37.9% to 8.34m, Total sales up 20.1% to125.7m. The Final dividend of 8p net per share, bringing the total dividend to 11p net. The CEO said " I am very pleased to report that we have achieved our tenth consecutive year of record profits and successfully relaunched our French business as Wine and Beer World"
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Crocodile - 15 Jun 2003 11:19 - 2 of 5
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Diary (GMT) |
United Kingdom F)inals (I)nterim |
United States (Click Flag) |
Europe & World |
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Mon 16th June Reports / Data
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Wyndeham Press (F) PBT 7m exp. Express Dairies (F), Majestic Wine (F), Mckay Securities (F), Parkman Group (F) AWG (AWG) Return of Capital ex date, terms are 132.4p per share. AWG Consolidation ex date, terms are every 250 existing ordinary shares will be consolidated into 201 new ordinary shares (ratio 0.804:1) Chaucer Holdings (CHU) reorganisation ex date UK RICS monthly house prices (23:30) |
13.00 June Empire State Index 9.5 exp. 18.00 June NAHB Housing Market Index |
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Tue 17th
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Halma Plc (F) PBT 45m exp.Kingfisher KESA De-merger Details House of Fraser (AGM), Whitbread (AGM) 00.30 May RICS House Price Index 09.30 May RPI-X y/y 3.0% exp. |
13.30 May CPI m/m 0.1% exp. 13.30 May Housing Starts 1700k exp. 14.15 May Industrial production +0.1% exp. |
10.00 German June ZEW Expectations 19.7 exp. 11.00 April Industrial Production m/m 0.5% exp. |
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Wed 18th
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Domino Printing Sciences (I), Abbey National Trading Statement Misys Trading Statements George Wimpey Trading Statement Taylor & Francis (AGM) 09.30 Bank of England MPC Minutes Europe: Stock Option Expiry 10:00 10:30 |
Morgan Stanley (Q2) |
Hennes & Mauritz (Q2) 11.00 May Euro-Zone CPI y/y 1.9% exp. US: 11.00 April Euro-Zone Trade Balance
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Ex Dividend: 3i Group (8.6), Bank of Ireland (EUR0.238), Boots (20.2), Brown (N) Group (4.1), Character Group (1), Dawson Holdings (2.6), Electrocomponents (11.75), Fuller, Smith & Turner (11.37), Helphire (1.5), Liontrust Asset Management (3), Liontrust Asset Management Special Dividend (8.25), London Merchant Securities (4.3), London Scottish Bank (1.65), Moss Bros (0.75), Severn Trent (28.56), Uniq (3.8) |
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Thu 19th |
AEA Technology (F) PTL 5.4m exp. Belhaven Group (F), Dart Group (F), GW Pharmaceuticals (I), New Look (EGM) 09.30 May Retail Sales m/m +0.2% exp. 09.30 May PSNCR 4.7bn exp. 09.30 May M4 Money Supply y/y +8.2% exp. 11.00 June CBI Industrial Trends |
GTECH (Q1), Lehman Bothers (Q2) 13.30 Q1 Current Account Balance -$142bn exp. 13.30 Initial Claims (w/e 14/06) 425k exp. 15.00 May Leading Indicator +0.6% exp. 17.00 May Philly Fed 5.0 exp. |
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Fri 20th |
TSmith & Nephew Trading Statement Double Witching, Index Future & Option Expiry 10:00 10:30FTSE Quarterly Review After the Market Closes |
11.00 German May Producer Price Ind y/y +1.4% exp. |
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| Provisional Financial Diary For The Following Week | |||
| Mon 23rd |
Trifast(F), UBC Media (F) Workspace Group (F), Berkeley Group (F) Unilever PLC trading statement UK leading indicators (0830 GMT) |
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| Tue 24th |
Cosalt (I), Goldshield Group (F) Grainger Trust (I), Numerica Group (F) Telecom Plus(F), First Property Online (F) (Tentative) WPP Group AGM Woolworths Group PLC AGM UK May CML mortgage lending survey (08:30) UK May motor vehicle production (08:30) |
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| Wed 25th | Dixons (F), Stagecoach (F), VTech (F) Tribal (F), Xansa (F) | ||
| Allied Domecq (5.3), Land Securities Group (26), Man Group (14.1), New Look Group(6), TR Property Investment Trust (1.15), United Utilities (32.1), VT Group(6), Victrex (2.2) | |||
| Thur 26th |
Berkeley Group (F), Computerland (F) Leopold Joseph Holdings (F) DS Smith (F), Dyson Group (F), iSOFT Group(F) Leopold Joseph (F) Northgate Information Solutions (F) WS Atkins (F) Cordiant Communications AGM
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| Fri 27th |
James Latham (F), Railtrack Group (F) Somerfield (F) N Brown Group PLC AGM |
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Trading Thoughts
In last weeks thoughts we went against this years uptrend and decided on a small fall on the FTSE based on the strong resistance line at 4200. It certainly looked as if this call was going to be a bad one right up to the bell when a late fall pushed the market negative for the week. So our long run of good calls was saved by the bell but next weeks guess is going to be a toughie! This weeks chart shows the strong correlation between the S&P500 index and the FTSE over the last 3 years. Although many analysts have said the S&P has broken the longer term downtrend I would say it is a very marginal claim. A lot depends exactly where you draw the resistance line (in purple) and I feel the one shown is as good as any! Looking at the chart both markets could be establishing a sideways trading channel as can seen by the horizontal line in pink. They are both at the very top of this channel and I feel if the FTSE manages further gains towards 4250 then 4500 will be the next target. However I believe that currently we have a nice balance between the Bulls & Bears and UK markets will be more inclined to trade sideways remaining below the resistance line. So for next week I will be looking for a tight trading range between 4060 to 4180 especially as we have no blue-chip companies scheduled to report figures. However we do have some economic news with the most important being the inflation figures due on Tuesday. Monday: Express Dairies is expected to post increased pre-tax profits, to 28.4m from 20.8m last time benefiting from an upward trend in milk and the recent merger Majestic Wine should report another good year successful year on Monday after seeing strong growth on both sides of the Channel. They are expected to post pre-tax profits of around 8m, up from the 6m seen a year earlier with turnover rising from 104m to 120m. Tuesday: Analysts expect the underlying rate of inflation to rise to its highest level since May 1998 at 3.1% reflecting higher food prices. Wednesday: Clues on the future direction of interest rates will also be gauged on Wednesday when the minutes of the Bank of England's no change vote on interest rates earlier this month are released. Some excellent Ex dividend stocks to play with include Boots 20.2p, Electrocomponents 11.75p and Severn Trent (28.56), As always I wish you all the best for the week ahead and look forward to reading your thoughts David |
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David@FTSEDOW.COM www.FTSEDOW.com All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research. |
Sunday 15th June
Crocodile - 15 Jun 2003 11:20 - 3 of 5
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Sunday News 15th June McCarthy & Stone rose 42p to 495p after it confirmed that it has received a preliminary approach from a third party. This one was mentioned on the MoneyAm BB 4 weeks ago with the takeover company believed to be Persimmon at 500p.I will now close my long on MCTY but watch out for a possible strong rise on Persimmon! ROSE MARIE BRAVO, the American chief of British fashion house Burberry, picked up a staggering 19m in pay, perks, bonuses and share awards last year. Sunday Express Mobile group Vodafone has the potential to increase profits in Europe, while Asian business accounts for 15% of earnings and other global markets are also delivering. The company is also successfully cost-cutting through centralising back-office staff functions. Buy at 122 1/4p. Online bookmaker UK Betting raised 4.35 million last week through a share placing to fund new games on its websites. At 33p the stock is a buy after WestLB Panmure lifted its price target from 35p to 45p. Merchant Retail has benefited from huge growth at The Perfume Shop, which has a 14% share of its market, while the skincare business has also thrived. Despite a though market for stores Jolings and de Gruchy, the group should prosper from further expansion. Buy at 148 1/2p. |
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| Mexican stand-off for WPPs Cordiant bid Boots to set foot in America What does Freeserve Wanadoo? Petrel to move into Baghdad at dawn under armed guard BAE woos new partner in US merger plan Smith and Nephew Bank of Ireland's claim on TSB card Bonuses soar for Wiseman brothers New York firm plans 1bn bid for AWG WH Smith boss fights over 7m pension Largo Foods to supply Boots with low-fat crisps Body Shop Roddick to launch ethical fashion chain |
Nestle SA Enterprise Network: Food firm hungry for growth Centrica boss vows: Ill stay five more years Independent News and Media figures prove success is all just a matter of timing GlaxoSmithKline Bush turns back on big drug companies BP Paper maker outraged at water bill hike Centrica chief woos investors after burning his fingers Eircom The Campaign: Geoff Percival: Hot summer soccer deals Sharewatch: Royal & Sun Alliance Royal Bank of Scotland Savoy owner in talks to buy Le Meridien assets Fred the Shred facing biggest test yet at Royal Bank of Scotland Irish Business Digest Ryanair Holdings |
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| Rolls-Royce will this week unveil plans to build high-tech engines for Boeing's new 7E7 airliner. Its share price has almost doubled from 64p in March to 124p last week. But it still faces a tough time in its main commercial aerospace market. Wait for an airline recovery before buying. Aviation firm Dart Group is extremely sensitive about its future links with Royal Mail. It recently bought six second-hand Boeing 737s which it is thought could be used on a new Royal Mail contract. Since April shares have climbed from 135p to close last week at 215p. Looks like Dart may soon have a red letter day. Buy. The only reason to buy shares in Britain's largest estate agency chain Countrywide Assured (102p) is the hope it will carry out a management buy-out, but the share price could have further to fall before this becomes feasible. Last week the group issued a profits warning saying demand was weak and it was being hit by the cost of compensating underperforming endowments*. Household electronics group Alba reported a 19% jump in pre-tax profits to 27.4 million last week. The shares have had a good run climbing from 313p in September to finish last week at 492.5p, but there could be more to come. Investec securities says that if Alba were to trade on the same kind of income multiples as its peers, its shares would be worth 637p. | ||||||||
| Venture capital groups eye AWG Xenova in $100m talks with Wilex Cordiant Communications Publicis scuppers takeover by WPP WPP to back 3-year contracts Scottish and Newcastle Clarke on a 2.3bn pub crawl |
Vodafone Shareholders pay a heavy price for Gent's glory Moss Bros suits Hamill Spencer scoops 3.7m from ICAP BT in web porn blitz Xansa scales pay to pensions |
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| Financial Times owner Pearson (593p) may have put the worst of its three year crisis behind it. Shares have bounced 22% since March and its exposure to any advertising recovery makes it a good recovery play. The company's performance is heavily weighted to the second half of the year and now could be a good time to buy. The proposal by the management of Chelsfield to take the property company private has pushed the share price up sharply to 316p. Canny investors should bail out now, since the current price may be as good as it will get. Sell. | ||||||||
| Observer | Barclays, Tomkins, Vodaphone Options bonanza for bosses AWG The blonde bombshell caught in a minefield Carlton, Granada ITV firms wheel out big guns to quell City unrest | ARM HoldingsThe formula for fat cat cream BNFL set to disclose losses of 1 billion Canary Wharf Power behind the tower | ||||||
| Independent | HSBC, Barclays UK banks in bid to rebuild Iraqi financial system Express Dairies Doorstep Delivery | BAE Systems wants to fly the Stars and Stripes | ||||||
| Diageo How to get ahead in marketing whiskey Vellacott appeal: 'For good of IndigoVision surrender your share options' US group linked to bid for AWG Carlton-Granada marriage on rocks Delayed ScotX dealt blow by Ofex proposal Scottish Power Holdings Power transfer to media firm Belhaven brewing up plan to fund growth in pub estate Thus Group Allan lays down law again | RBOS Faroe Petroleum drills for shareholder funding with 45m flotation Ofex,Tesco raises its game in attempt to get the Scottish market moving Allied Irish Bank No excuses for losing money through over-exposure to currency fluctuations | |||||||
| Tips: Buy Moss Bros (MOSB) at 54p - Eleco (ELCO) at 30p - Hyder Consulting (HYC) at 89p.Sell Invensys (ISYS) at 20p - Vernalis (VER) at 55p - Macfarlane (MACF) at 32p.Tip Updates: Buy Fusion Oil & Gas (FOG) and Gyrus (GYG), Mears (MER) and Surfcontrol (SRF) - fairly priced, Persimmon (PSN) - good value. Company Results: Buy Hornby (HRN) - Regal Petroleum (RPT). | ||||||||
| The Plays of the Week:Buy Chapelthorpe (CPL) at 10.625p - Rathbone Bros (RAT) at 608p - Northumbrian Water (NWG) at 108p - Creston (CRE) at 72.5p.Tip Updates:Buy Ideal Shopping Direct (IDS), Buy/hold GB Railways (GBR), Hold/buy Hamleys (HYL).The Sitting Ducks for a Take Over:Buy Meggitt (MGGT) - Luminar (LMR) - Geest (GET) - mmO2 (OOM) - Pennon Group (PNN). Add Bloomsbury Publishing (BMY).Sell RMC (RMC) - Eidos (EID) - Stagecoach (SGC) - SMG (SMG). Avoid Elan Corporation (ELA), Take Profits in First Technology (FRS). | ||||||||
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Crocodile - 16 Jun 2003 07:37 - 4 of 5
little woman
- 16 Jun 2003 09:17
- 5 of 5
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