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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 30th June (DEB)
Crocodile - 29 Jun 2003 11:39
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S&P &Futures (Click for latest)
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Pre Market Futures (7:30) | |
| FTSE | -22 | ||
| TechMark | -2 | ||
| DAX | -+ Unch | ||
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Hang Seng -36
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Nikkei -20
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DOW | +38 |
| S&P | +5.5 | ||
| Nasdaq | +3.4 | ||
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News Headlines: UK futures down bur European markets open Flat & US futures rising so a rise is likely after a a down start. House prices were unchanged in June after falling slightly in the previous two months, property website Hometrack.co.uk says. Debenhams, says it has received a rival bid approach from another party. A takeover attempt would come up against a 1.5 billion pound approach already on the table from Permira. Debenhams said the discussions with Permira were continuing. IMI said Monday that for the six months ending 30 June 2003, on a like for like basis sales overall remain steady at similar levels to last year with volume improvements in Fluid Controls offsetting the expected reduction in Retail Dispense. Alfred McAlpine said that at this stage in the year, overall prospects for the second half remain encouraging and our order books provide a strong platform for future progress. Overall performance to date has been in line with expectations.
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Crocodile - 29 Jun 2003 11:39 - 2 of 10
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Trading Thoughts
We have a quiet week ahead with few updates for the leading FTSE shares. Economic indicators are more likely to move the markets with consumer credit and mortgage lending data topping the bill. Later in the week, manufacturing figures, house price data and trade survey results may move the index.Monday: Photo-Me International, best known for its passport photo booths release final results which are expected to show a loss of 4m. But there may be some good news about ist new minilab, which can make up to 1,500 prints an hour. If this goes as expected they expect to make profits of 10m in a year's time. The house builders will again be in the spotlight when Wilson Bowden updates the market. It stated a target of exceeding 1bn of turnover by 2003 with analysts forecasts of pre-tax profit of 196m.Tuesday HMV are expected to reveal full year profits at the top end of forecasts on Tuesday. In April they said they would have good figures despite warning that trading conditions remained challenging. Analysts are predicting profits of around 96m compared with 80m last year. But the company has yet to say how it plans to see off the challenge from digital downloading which threatens music sales. Scottish & Newcastle are expected to reveal another year of earnings decline with profits of around 500m. Analysts feel that the balance sheet will make S&N consider further acquisitions as part of a recent expansion drive. Wednesday Ex Dividends worth looking out for are BOC Group (23.5), Emap (14.6), ThursdayGreene King, producer of Old speckled Hen and Abbot Ale, reports results which are not expected to show any surprises. In a trading update in February like-for-like sales in its tenanted houses were up by 2.1%. The acquisition of Morrells of Oxford last June should boost the figures. Analysts expect pre-tax profits, before exceptional items, to fall within a tight range of 73.8m to 75.3m compared with 69.2m a year ago. Friday The sale of Hales Waste and a pick-up in the German construction market may make a takeover bid for RMC less likely, brokers say ahead of a trading statement from the building materials group on Friday. The disposal of Hales to Severn Trent earlier this month puts RMC on track to meet its target of lowering net* debt to less than 1bn by the end of the current year. Last week we extended the winning run to 17 weeks with a little bit of luck on the FTSE. The market fell back as expected then on Friday rallied back to remain above our lower limit for the week of 4060 by a mere 5 points!. This weeks 1 year chart on the FTSE shows the importance of technical analysis. Especially the red resistance lines which provide excellent sell points. The recent rally since the end of January came to an end when it met the top of the longer term channel between 4000 - 4200. Next week I am not going for a continuing sell off as I believe the FTSE may well find support at 4000 before rising back. My target therefore for next week is for the FTSE to remain within the longer time sideways channel finishing above 4025 Wishing you all the best for the week ahead and as ever looking forward to your thoughts! David |
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David@FTSEDOW.COM www.FTSEDOW.com All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research. |
Sunday 29th June
(Crocodile)
Financial Diary - (Crocodile)
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All Times GMT |
United Kingdom F)inals (I)nterim |
United States (Click Flag) |
Europe & World |
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Mon 30th June Reports / Data |
IMI Trading Statement, Wilson Bowden Photo-Me International (F), Regus (Q1), WPP (AGM) 09.30 May Final M4 y/y 09.30 May Net Consumer Credit 1.5bn exp. 09.30 May Net Lending Sec. On Dwellings 7.3bn exp. 09.30 June Preliminary M0 y/y 6.4% exp. |
AAR Corp. AIR -0.02 Before Market Open Finish Line FINL 0.28 After Market Close HORIZON HEALTH CORP Before Market Open 15.00 June Chicago PMI 52.0 exp. |
Gucci (Q2) 09.00 EMU April M3 3m ma 8.3% exp. 11.00 EMU June Economic Confidence 98.0 exp. 11.00 EMU June Industrial Confidence 13.0 exp. 11.00 EMU June Flash CPI y/y 2.0% exp. 11.00 EMU June Consumer Confidence 20.0 exp. |
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Tue 1st July
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Carpetright (F) PBT 53.2m exp. HMV Group (F) PBT 95.3m exp. Scottish & Newcastle (F) PBT 500m exp. BWD Securities (I), Crest Nicholson (I), Luminar (AGM)John Wood Group Trading Statement John Laing Trading Statement Taylor Woodrow H1 Trading Statment Wilson Bowden Trading Statement 06.00 Nationwide House Price Survey 09.30 May CIPS Manufacturing PMI 48.5 exp. |
CKE Restaurants CKR 0.05 Constellation Brands, Inc. STZ 0.49 Emmis Communications EMMS Merix MERX -0.25 After Market Close Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. SCHN 1.25 15.00 May Construction Spending 0.3% exp. 15.00 June Manufacturing ISM 50.8 exp. |
07.00 EMU May German Retail Sales m/m 0.1% exp. 08.55 EMU May German Manufacturing PMI 45.5 exp. 09.00 EMU May Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI 47.6 exp. 11.00 EMU May Unemployment Rate 8.8% exp. |
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Wed 2nd July
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International Greetings (F), Northgate (F), Somerfield (F)Bovis Homes Trading Statement BP Q2 Trading Statement N Brown AGM & Trading Statement Wilson Connolly Trading Statement09.30 May CIPS Construction PMI 11.00 June CBI Distributive Trades 13.0 exp. |
Biomet, Inc. BMET 0.30 Before Market Open Gucci Group NV GUC 0.35 Time Not Supplied Nu Horizons Electronic NUHC -0.09 Before Market Open PriceSmart, Inc. PSMT N/A Time Not Supplied Stolt Offshore SOSA -0.29 Time Not Supplied 15.00 May Factory Orders 0.3% exp. |
. 08.55 EMU May German Services PMI 45.0 exp. 09.00 EMU May Euro Zone Services PMI 48.4 exp. 11.00 EMU May PPI m/m 0.3% exp |
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AEA Technology (3.7), Aveva Group (3.8), BOC Group (23.5), Belhaven Group (6.6), Caledonia Investments (18), Carlton Communications (2), Carphone Warehouse (1), Chloride Group (0.8), Dyson Group (3.1), Emap (14.6), Expro International (7.1), GraingerTrust (3.51), Hardys & Hanson (6.6), Majestic Wine (8), Merchant Retail (2), Paragon Group (2.6), Wolseley (5.6), Workspace Group (20.6), iSOFT Group (1.2) |
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Thu 3rd July |
Greene King (F) PBT 74.6m exp.Cookson Trading Statement 00.00 May BRC Shop Price index 09.30 May New Construction Orders 09.30 May CIPS Services PMI 52.3 exp. |
13.30 June Non-Farm Payrolls 9k exp. 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 28/06) 415k exp. 15.00 June Non-Manufacturing ISM 55.0 exp. |
10.00 EMU April Retail Trade m/m 0.6% exp. |
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Fri 4th July |
Viridian (AGM) Manchester United Trading Statement Marshalls Trading Statement Redrow Trading Statement |
US Independence Day Holiday |
11.00 EMU May German Preliminary Factory Orders m/m flat exp. 11.00 EMU May OECD Leading Indicator |
| Provisional Calendar For The Following Week | |||
| Mon 7th July |
MITIE Group (F) Kingfisher PLC demerger Christian Salvesen AGMMay industrial/manufacturing output (0830 GMT) CBI financial services survey June National Institute for Economic and Social Research monthly GDP estimate (1200 GMT) |
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| Tue 8th July |
Kensington Group (I) (Tentative) Luminar PLC AGM Safeway PLC AGM & Q1 trading statement Signet Group PLC AGM Vosper Thornycroft Holdings PLC AGM Alphameric (I) Albany AGM, DCC AGM |
ALCOA AA 0.25 Century Bancorp Consumer Credit |
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| Wed 9th July |
Reg Vardy (F) 3i Group AGM, Man Group AGM, Thus Group AGM Liontrust Asset Management AGM Murray Vct 4 AGM, Northern Petroleum AGM Christian Salvesen AGMTreasury chief economist Ed Balls speaks on economy to Merrill Lynch conference (0330 GMT) Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting Trade Balance May, Trade Balance Non-EU May Trade Balance X Oil May |
Wholesale Inventories | |
| Dairy Crest Group 12.5p, De La Rue 9.2p, GUS 16.4p, GWR Group 3.5p, Pillar Property 5.7p, SABMiller 18.5p, Tate & Lyle 12.8p | |||
| Thur 10th July |
Stanley Leisure (F) Securities Trust of Scotland PLC AGM Emap PLC Annual Shareholders meeting MPC Rate Decision |
Export Prices Import Prices ex-oil Initial Claims | |
| Fri 11th July |
Glotel July 15 (F) Cable and Wireless PLC AGM PHS Group PLC AGM |
Core PPI PPI Jun Trade Balance May | |
Crocodile - 29 Jun 2003 11:40 - 3 of 10
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British American Tobacco is thought to be considering a 5bn takeover of Altadis, the Spanish-French rival that makes Gauloises and Gitanes cigarettes The BBC plans to team up with BSkyB in a joint bid for the rights to Premier League football matches. If successful, BBC's Match of the Day would show live, top-flight league games for the first time. Standard Life mortgage bombshell, the biggest provider of mortgage endowments*, has admitted it faces a timebomb caused by shortfalls on hundreds of thousands of policies. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group should maintain output cuts at Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine, through the end of the year because of sagging metal demand, a partner at the Chilean venture said. Leading shares are expected to trade in a narrow range next week as results dry up and investors wait for brighter economic news, though a quarter-end rally could give a boost. The chairman of the country's biggest newsagent and bookseller, WH Smith, plans to quit before the end of the year Private equity groups CVC Capital Partners and Texas Pacific Group are preparing a joint bid for retail group Debenhams, Sunday newspapers have reported Central bank governors from around the world say they expect a slow and sluggish recovery in the global economy. The London Stock Exchange has confirmed its in-coming chairman Chris Gibson-Smith is seeking early meetings with his counterparts at rival bourses Deutsche Boerse and Euronext. |
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| 12m Burberry boss faces investor revolt Faroe Petroleum Oil explorer defends chiefs pay-off deal British American Tobacco boss to fly in at BA WPP UK Active agrees to Cordiant disposals Allied Irish Bank seeks 400m for buyout fund Rival bid planned for Debenhams Allied Irish Bank SMG Goodbody woos Montgomery star Scottish and Southern Energy End of the fat cats pensions bonanza Aberdeen Asset Management fails to meet deadline for 80m deal Cazenove is worth less than Lastminute.com BAE to win 1.5bn Hawk deal AOL beats Freeserve to first net profits British Energy chiefs 3.6m pension pot WH Smith chairman Taylor in shock decision to resign Dana Petroleum Oil explorer defends chiefs pay-off deal |
Smith and Nephew, GWR Group, Legal & General Success for our stockpickers BT Group Yell and Belgacom plan megafloats Is Sir Peter losing control of his Sainsbury trolley? Whitehead Mann: Recruitment agents dismiss their own shares British Airways, Alliance and Leicester Success for our stockpickers Enterprise Inns, Cordiant Communications Success for our stockpickers AWG, Marks & Spencer Success for our stockpickers Nestor Healthcare, Serco Success for our stockpickers Taxing reason why Orange faces takeover City finds WH Smith lacking in magic Scottish Sharewatch: PPL Therapeutics Dixons John Clare: Shy cheerleader for the high street UK Active agrees to Cordiant disposals EasyJet: No profit in coming to Dublin' |
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| Galen Holdings Tchenguiz puts money down for Selfridges WPP, Cordiant go-ahead for disposals Ennstone faces 130m auction Kingfisher faces new revolt CVC and TPG prepare joint Debenhams bid |
Don't bet on a BAE takeover Persimmon White in the pink Lord Robertson to join Cable & Wireless board BT Group Yell judges time ripe for flotation Invensys seeks $850m for US arm |
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| Just 15 months ago shares in construction group Alfred McAlpine were trading above 490p, last week they closed at 272 1/2p. Shareholders have been disappointed that McAlpine has not returned as much cash from last year's sale of its housebuilding arm as many had hoped. This looks harsh. Its decision to invest in a move into capital projects and PFI schemes has been successful. Buy. Ports shares have hardly been in favour with investors over the past year. However, the sector is worth considering. Some companies such as Mersey Docks & Harbour have produced respectable earnings in a difficult economic environment. The group, led by Peter Jones, has taken advantage of the economic downturn to invest in infrastructure and is now better placed than it rivals to benefit from a recovery. At 553 1/2p the shares trade at a discount to other ports groups which seems unjustified. Cardpoint, the operator of convenience cash machines (60 1/2p) pulled off a bold acquisition last month buying a rival network from Securicor. The move increased its network from 450 to 1,700 including machines in prime locations such as motorway service stations. Valuing such businesses can be tricky but some brokers believe the price could rise through 80p. Worth a punt. | ||||||||
| Observer | Exel UK transport crisis deterring investors Candover plans 1bn move for Auto Trader Energis accounts bore 'no relationship to reality | Safeway, JJB Sports 100bn industry is desperate for deals Marks & Spencer Corporate tax avoidance is costing us all billions mmO2 Is that your mobile ringing or a deep human need? | ||||||
| Independent |
WPP, Cordiant Communications Scrutiny for Sorrell after AGM rebuke Granada, Carlton urged to seek better deal on merger RBOS Shareholders say bulls to the bond markets and the management buyouts |
Dixons ready to recharge itself as profit is corroded JJB Sports Shareholders say bulls to the bond markets and the management buyouts Going, going, gone? QXL ricardo once excelled, now it's getting hammered | ||||||
| Jove considers taking legal action over Aberdeen Asset Management Bidders line up to take over Scottish and Newcastle pubs empire Magnum Force to be reckoned with? Faroe Petroleum floating in a sea of hope HBOS Scots directors profit 200,000 through share dealings Digital Animations Black back in swim with new agency Pentland exapnsion drive after US contract |
The puck stops here for Orange ICI Beguiling battle for Hamleys does not look like child's play SNG Can Chris Evans ever make the grade again? KPN Beguiling battle for Hamleys does not look like child's play Scottish & Newcastle expects to toast strong results Businessmen up stakes in John Swan but deny bid interest Do not ask Diageo for a drink |
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| Sunday Express | A trading statement from banking group HBOS said margins, credit quality, costs and capital were healthy, it also reported rising investment sales. Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein says it expects to see higher trading in 12 months and has raised its target. Buy at 793p. A new management team at the gearbox technology company Torotrak is finally on track. Tests by Ford show the company's technology can improve fuel efficiency by 20%, so it looks well placed to capitalise on demand for reduced fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Buy at 35p. | |||||||
| Capital Radio, Cobra Bio-Manufacturing, Gallaher, Havelock Europa, Palmaris Capital, Shell Transport | ||||||||
| Buy Ncipher at 133p - Surfcontrol at 635p - Venture Production at 174p - Ultimate Leisure at 223.5p. Wiggins - Courts - JJB Sports - Tomkins - UK Coal - easyJet - Marconi - Ashtead - Corus - MyTravel Group, Celtic Resources, Close short positions in Dixons (DXNS.L). Take profits in Amec (AMEC.L). | ||||||||
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Crocodile - 29 Jun 2003 21:04 - 4 of 10
You have sent an Email regarding next Thursday's training day. Unfortunately you have not given me your EMail to reply. There are 3 places left so please Email me at david@ftsedow.com
Nick - 29 Jun 2003 21:33 - 5 of 10
Thankyou.
Crocodile - 30 Jun 2003 07:43 - 6 of 10
farmboy - 30 Jun 2003 07:59 - 7 of 10
washlander
- 30 Jun 2003 09:04
- 8 of 10
Crocodile - 30 Jun 2003 11:15 - 9 of 10
little woman
- 30 Jun 2003 16:30
- 10 of 10
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