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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday July 27th (ANL)
Crocodile - 27 Jul 2003 11:31
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Gold
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S&P &Futures (Click for latest)
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Pre Market Futures (7:30) | |
| FTSE | +40 | ||
| TechMark | +4 | ||
| DAX | +35 | ||
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Hang Seng +-
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Nikkei +-
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DOW | +22 |
| S&P | +2.2 | ||
| Nasdaq | +4.5 | ||
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News Headlines: Vodaphone: said that in the quarter a higher than expected 3 million registered proportionate customers were added in the quarter, including over 0.5 million from stake changes. The total proportionate base has increased to 122.7 million, up over 18% on June last year. (2.4 million expected) Bondholders in Telewest Communications have penned an agreement for a debt-to-equity swap that will wipe 3.5 billion pound in debt off the cable group's balance sheet, according to the Financial Times Pearson which typically makes much of its profit in the second half of the year, said sales dropped to 1.665 billion pounds from 1.813 billion pounds a year ago. They cited delayed textbook sales and lower advertising at the Financial Times United Utilities says it will seek to raise up to one billion pounds through a rights issue. as it is weighed down by a maintenance and service upgrade programme BAA said that at the pretax level, profit was down, year on year, by 11.2% to 127 million impacted by the expected effects of the FRS17 accounting standard on pension costs. CEO said: "Despite the modest traffic growth during the first three months of the current year, the Company expects overall passenger traffic to grow by approximately 4% during the year. "The dry summer weather has enabled us to press ahead with Terminal 5, our largest capital project. Both bores of the tunnel connecting the site with the existing central terminal area were completed in June, and we have now started work on the main above ground structures. We continue to be slightly ahead of our program and costs remain on budget. Aggregate Industries "broadly in line" with expectations, with dividend increase only surprise in typically optimistic sounding statement,
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Crocodile - 27 Jul 2003 11:31 - 2 of 12
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Trading Thoughts
We have a very busy week ahead, here are some of the highlights. Monday:BAA (is expected to unveil a fall in first quarter profit but the market will be looking for the outlook on passenger growth and an update on the building of Heathrow Terminal 5. Exel profits may have been hit with the fall in the US dollar expected to impact on earnings. Amersham is forecast to report a fall in interim profit due to adverse currency movements and a slower-than-expected improvement at its Drug Discovery unit. Aggregate Industries interims will probably be hit by wet weather and a lower demand in the US market .The group recently warned that first half profits are likely to be lower than last year. BG Group (Energy) should confirm increased growth as higher commodity prices continue to lift the group. Tuesday:BP reports Q2 results which are expected to come in high following Shells strong results last week. The main interest will be the $6bn investment in Russia. Wednesday:Unilever is expected to report a fall in Q2 after it was forced to revise down current year forecasts following difficult trading conditions in recent months. Abbey National: may disclose a massive drop in half-time profits after taking a near 600m hit for sour corporate loans. George Wimpey One of my trading favourites is expected to post a staggering 35 per cent rise in pre-tax profits to about 116 million this week. show higher Interim profits and its forward order book is still expected to be strong.Thursday: BT is likely to continue its recent trend for weak top-line growth but strong profits when it reports first quarter figures on Thursday. Shire Pharmaceuticals should report a rise in pre-tax profits helped by its attention deficit disorder drug Adderall. However, analysts have warned that approval for kidney drug Fosrenol could be delayed until 2004. ICI should once again show declining profits however the market will react to news on how the restructuring programme is progressing at the group, especially at the Quest and Starch divisions. Centrica could announce a big increase in its dividends when it reports that interim results have been boosted by a strong US performance. HBOS the UK's largest mortgage lender should release strong first half results as it has attempted to lessen its reliance on the remortgage market compared to other banks. Friday:Lloyds releases interim figures and should outline and make its position on its New Zealand subsidiary clearer. They could be considering a shock cut in its interim dividend by up to a third due to the need to pump cash into its troubled Scottish Widows
Last week thoughts went for a positive FTSE with the UK market pushing back up through 4100. This easy call went according to plan but it is not so clear for the week ahead. The current trading model is to buy the FTSE (Or trackers) around 4020 and sell above 4160 while it remains in the horizontal trading channel. We do have a packed week of positive looking results ahead which may move the UK market independently of the US indices. So a rather weak spread call for me with the FTSE finishing in the 4040 - 4170 range providing a good long or short if the market approaches either of these figures. Looking at the chart the horizontal trading channel is now to starting to form a wedge with the more important 3 year downtrend. Interesting times ahead! Wishing you all the best for the new week and as ever I am looking forward to reading your thoughts! David |
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David@FTSEDOW.COM www.FTSEDOW.com All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research. |
Sunday 27th July
(Crocodile)
Financial Diary - (Crocodile)
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All Times GMT |
United Kingdom F)inals (I)nterim |
United States (Click Flag) |
Europe & World |
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Mon 28th July Reports / Data |
BG Group (Q2) PBT 549m exp., Exel (I)PBT 100m exp. Pearson (I) PTL 9m exp, Vodafone Q1, Aggregate Industries (I), Alizyme (I), BAA (Q1), Datamonitor (I), Domino's Pizza (I), Filtronic (F), Isis Asset Management (I), Jardine Lloyd Thompson (I), Monsoon (F), Royalblue Group (I) |
Nothrop Gruman (Q2), Xerox (Q2) |
EADS (I), Olivetti (Q2) 09.00 May M3 3m ma 8.5% exp. Europe: 09.00 July German IFO Expectations 100.0 exp. |
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Tue 29th
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Amersham (I) PBT 144.5m exp. BP (Q2) PBT US$3,628m, BAT (Q2) PBT 649m exp. Prudential (I) PBT 466m exp.(& New Business) Cookson Group (I), Elementis (I), Games Workshop (F), Genetix Group (I), Halma (AGM), Novar (I), RPS Group (I) St James's Place (I), United Business Media (I) 09.30 June Final M4 Money Supply 09.30 June Net Consumer Credit 1.6bn exp. |
RJ Reynolds (Q2), Tyco Intl (Q2), Verizon (Q2) 15.00 July Consumer Confidence 85.0 exp. |
Alcatel (Q2), Aventis (Q2) 09.00 May Current Account - E2.8bn exp. |
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Wed 30th
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Abbey National (I) PBT 102m exp. Alliance Unichem (I) PBT 90.1m exp. Unilever (Q2) PBT 925m exp, TDG (I), Arc International (Q2), Ashanti GoldFields (Q2), Bookham Technology (Q2), Croda International (I), Friends Provident (I), Homestyle Group (F), RAC (I), mmO2 (AGM), Severn Trent (AGM), United Utilities (AGM), Vodafone (AGM), AWG (AGM), British Energy (AGM) 10.30 July Gfk Consumer Confidence 1.0 exp. Europe: 11.00 June CBI Distributive Trades |
19.00 Fed Beige Book |
Credit Lyonnais (I), Hugo Boss (Q2) |
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Associated British Foods (4.75), Burndene Investments (1.25), Cranswick (8), Domino Printing (1.66), Gen(5.5), GlaxoSmithKline (9), Greene King (21.3), ICAP (23), RPC (4.25), Reuters (3.85), Scottish Power (4.75), Speedy Hire (5.7), Warner Estates (8.25), Whitehead Mann (2.5) |
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Thu 31st |
Aviva (I) PBT 760m exp. BT Group (Q1) PBT 513m exp. Centrica (I) PBT 633m exp, HBOS (I) PBT 1,928m exp. Chubb (I) PBT 46.1m exp, Hanson (I) PBT 184.7m exp. Imperial Chemical Industries (Q2) PBT 82m exp. Rio Tinto (I) PBT US$715m exp. Rolls-Royce (I) PBT 105m exp. Shire Pharmaceuticals (Q2) US$84m exp. Smith & Nephew (I) PBT 112m exp. Trinity Mirror (I) PBT 80m exp. Mcalpine (I), British Airways (Q1), Hanson (I), Laird Group (I), Telewest (I) Pennon (AGM), Tate & Lyle (AGM), Carphone Warehouse AGM/Trading Statement |
Exxon Mobil (Q2), Walt Disney (Q2) 13.30 Q2 GDP 1.7% exp. 13.30 Q2 Personal Consumption 301% exp. 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 26/07) 400k exp. 15.00 July Chicago PMI 53.7 exp. |
ENI (Q2), Fiat (Q2), Schering (Q2) 11.00 July Industrial Confidence 11.0 exp. 11.00 July Flash CPI y/y 2.0% exp. US: 11.00 July Consumer Confidence 18.0 exp. |
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Fri 1st August |
Lloyds TSB (I) PBT 1,146m exp. Amvescap (Q2) 09.30 UK July CIPS manufacturing PMI |
Chevron Texaco (Q2) 13.30 July Non-farm Payrolls 5k exp. 13.30 June Personal Income 0.3% exp. 14.50 July Final Michigan Sentiment 90.5 exp. 15.00 June Construction Spending 0.4% exp. 15.00 July Manufacturing ISM 51.5 exp. |
Societe Generale (Q2) |
| Provisional Calendar For The Following Week | |||
| Mon August 4th |
HSBC (Q2), Inchcape (I) CIPS/Reuters UK Services July |
Existing Home Sales | |
| Tue 5th |
BOC Group (Q3), Torex (I) Industrial Production M/M June Y/Y Manufacturing Production M/M June Official Reserves July |
BTM-UBSW Store Sales Durable Goods Orders Redbook Consumer Confidence New Home Sales |
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| Wed 6th |
Rotork (I), Spirent (I), Standard Chartered (I) Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting |
MBA Purchase Applications | |
| Aberforth Smaller Companies 3.5p, BT Group 4.25p, Berkeley Group 14.4p, Crest Nicholson 3.5p, Northgate 11.1p, SSL International 8.4p, Tate & Lyle 12.8, WS Atkins 3p | |||
| Thur 7th |
Barclays (I), GKN (I), Greggs (I) Millennium & Copthorne Hotles (I) Old Mutual (I), Reed Elsevier Half year Royal & Sun Alliance Insurance Group (I) |
Corporate Profits GDP Jobless Claims Money Supply |
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| Fri 8th |
Bradford & Bingley (I) |
Personal Income and Outlays Consumer Sentiment NAPM-Chicago Farm Prices | |
Crocodile - 27 Jul 2003 11:31 - 3 of 12
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Sunday News 27th July Abbey National will this week disclose a massive drop in half-time profits after taking a near 600m hit for sour corporate loans. Lloyds TSB is considering cutting its interim dividend by up to a third due to the need to pump cash into its troubled Scottish Widows life and pensions business. The UK economy put in a sluggish performance in the second quarter of the year, casting fresh doubt over the Chancellor's growth forecasts. Debenhams, is on the brink of recommending a 1.54m bid from the venture capital group Permira |
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| Shock exit for Horlick from SocGen British Airways bosses launch attack on time theft strikers Embattled MyTravel in US sell-off Cordiant battle was a mistake - Myerson Schwab takes Davos to the Middle East Rolls demands staff help plug pension deficit Russian oil giant forced to delay its $1bn bond (Yukos) Abbey National set for more big losses Debenhams will foot 5m bid bill Cantor sued by billionaire Swiss family Centrica to boost dividend by one third Price war bites into United Biscuits Leisurewear helps Boss to fight back Kingfisher attracts American interest | Pearson caught in high-living scandal Fund shuns blame for Cordiant loss Sharewatch: A&Ls figures far from boring A Share in the Boardroom: CaffNero Share of the Week: J Sainsbury Indicator of the Week: Retail sales volume Enterprise Network: Linen firm is a bed of thorns What the experts say about Damask Sharewatch: A stock that may have lost its fizz (Heineken) Indicator of the week: Growth Rates Enterprise Network: Wiping away the competition British Land goes cold on Aberdeens Nordic sale Digital Animations directors bill rises | |||||||
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ABBEY NATIONAL will this week struggle to convince investors that it is on the road to recovery as it unveils heavy losses in its personal financial-services division, as well as its embattled wholesale bank ROLLS-ROYCE,has asked its staff to delay retirement by five years and accept a reduction in benefits as part of plan to plug a 1.2 billion pension-fund deficit US Home Depot is a natural suitor for the owner of Britains B&Q |
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| Philip Aldrick examines Glaxo SmithKline, GKN and Autonomy | Shell skids while miners tap rich vein | |||||||
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BAE Systems is threatening to sack 470 highly skilled employees in Brough, close to the constituency of the deputy prime minister, having rejected an offer from the Government to buy a scaled-down version of its Hawk trainer jets. Debenhams is paying 1 million a week to CVC and Texas Pacific Group to persuade them to continue working on a possible joint bid for the department store group |
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| Observer | Swipe strike costs BA 50m Abbey National will disclose a near 600m hit Standard cuts bonuses as 'carpetbagger' fails 'Supergrass' sues JP Morgan Builder heads for big rise in profits (Wimpey) Trent engines to give Rolls lift-off Mystery of Chelsea bid before Russian deal | Royal Bank of Scotland RBS: a difficult act to sustain? Besieged BA left with strike baggage Union rivalries are exacerbating the swipe cards standoff, but it's the airline that's getting it in the neck. Addressing the state of the unions The cost of recruiting new members has caused problems for the GMB BAA Airport operator plans pre-emptive split | ||||||
| Independent | Branson deal heralds 1bn Virgin mobile float Sir John Harvey-Jones attacks the "fat cat" Dividend cut on Lloyds' agenda Ladbrokes fights backs. Energis chief claims BT is holding back broadband The Thing Is: Lloyds TSB BT promote competition? 'It's like training a lion not to roar' | FSA inquiry into Chelsea sparked by FBI charges Sluggish growth puts Brown's forecasts at risk Cable & Wireless shareholders revolt on pay Equitable Life cleared to sue Ernst & Young for 2.6bn S&N chairman drinks to 190,000 bonus Debenhams to back 1.5bn Permira bid | ||||||
| Buy AB Foods (ABF) at 531p - Kier (KIE) at 545p - Independent Media Distribution (IMD) at 36p - Ask Central (AKC) at 144p - Stagecoach Theatre Arts (STA) at 65p.Sell British Biotech (BBG) at 68p. Tip Updates: Buy Tullow Oil (TLW) and hold Debenhams (DEB) and Galen Holdings (GAL) - Synergy (SYR) and Belgravium (BVM) are both fairly valued. Further news: Corus (CS) the sick man of Europe. Company Results: Sell Arm Holdings (ARM) and Eurotunnel (ETL). | ||||||||
| The Plays of the Week: Buy Superscape (SPS) at 22p - Fibernet (FIB) at 64p - Theo Fennell (TFL) at 23.5p. Sell Arm Holdings (ARM) at 76.75p. Updates:Hold GB Railways (GBR). Close positions at Kensington Group (KGN). Profiles: Urbium (URM) - ASOS Holdings - Oasis Healthcare (OSH) - Chrysalis (CHS) - Carpetright (CPR). Meet the Chief:Nick Brayshaw of Wagon (WAGN). 2003 Blue Sky Portfolio: Medical Marketing (MMG) - Turbo Genset (TGN) - Oxford Biomedica (OXB) - Virotec (VTI) - JKX Oil & Gas (JKX) - Brewin Dolphin (BRW) - ITIS Holdings (ITH) - Ffastfill (FFA) - Torotrak (TRK) - Pursuit Dynamics (PDX) - Zoo Digital (ZOO) - iTouch (ITU). | ||||||||
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ThePlayboy
- 27 Jul 2003 11:41
- 4 of 12
R2 4165.6
R1 4148.4
PP 4132.3
S1 4115.1
S2 4099
Close on Fridays PP and above weekly R1, FIB range still intact from 4117 (61.8) to 4161 (78.6), Gained 1.2 in the auction!
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4221
R1 4065.1
PP 4110
S1 4065.1
S2 3999
hijeff - 28 Jul 2003 07:38 - 5 of 12
Crocodile - 28 Jul 2003 07:44 - 6 of 12
Will check jeff, Thank you
little woman
- 28 Jul 2003 07:51
- 7 of 12
Croc - traders thread & Thoughts Monday 27th? Isn't today the 28th!
Been away 2 weeks and now understand why many people just don't go away! Got a lot of catching up to do.................
Druid2
- 28 Jul 2003 08:38
- 8 of 12
little woman
- 28 Jul 2003 08:50
- 9 of 12
I know what you mean! I seem to have a lot of cash at the moment as many of my limit sell orders went through whilst I was away, and finding anything to buy at the moment is quite difficult!
I've been ploughing through my recent sales to see if anything has dropped since then and the only two possiblilities are ACM & MCA! - not particulary good choices to choose from. I've got a lot of work to do today so don't have much time for research. Maybe I should just sit tight for a while and see what develops!
Iain
- 28 Jul 2003 16:37
- 10 of 12
Crocodile - 28 Jul 2003 16:45 - 11 of 12
little woman
- 28 Jul 2003 17:12
- 12 of 12
So now I now work on the following: I invest the maximum I'm prepared to have wiped out, on the gounds that the overall profits will far outstrip the losses if I screw up!!!!!!!
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