A lot has been written in the USA about taking into consideration historic data when trading. I have observed that this can be a useful particularly where there are blocks of up days and down days that are above 65% up or down. I mention this because we are currently in such a situation.

Trading days of the month - Monday = UK (10) USA (9)

S&P500 Futures 21 years of data:

(8) (9) (10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17)
Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu
71% 70% 70% 65% 65% 65% 65% 60% 70% 80%
Up Up Up Up Up Dn Dn Dn Dn Dn

Strangely historic data shows that the selloff starts earlier on the FTSE100

FTSE 100 Futures 20 years of data:

(9) (10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)
Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu
68% 56% 67% 72% 78% 61% 61% 56% 67% flat
Up Up Up Dn Dn Dn Up Up Up flat


Whether this means anything or not I think I shall be in cash or short prior to the end of next week and definitely before Friday. I only have seven years data on DJIA but for July USA trading day (13) shows 100% Down.

Happy hunting and regards to all.