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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 14th July (PIC)
Crocodile - 13 Jul 2003 16:44
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S&P &Futures (Click for latest)
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Pre Market Futures (7:30) | |
| FTSE | +15 | ||
| TechMark | +6 | ||
| DAX | +11 | ||
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Hang Seng +167
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Nikkei +120
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DOW | +46 |
| S&P | +4.5 | ||
| Nasdaq | +7.5 | ||
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News Headlines: The FTSE is expected to open positive following a strong rise in US futures. At the moment it is up 15 points but I would not be surprised to see a higher figure by 8:30 Burberry says total revenues increased by 18 percent during the three months ended June 30 as trading improved during the quarter. They said in May trading conditions were exceptionally difficult as it battled the travel paralysis in Asia caused by a fear of attacks and the deadly SARS virus. But on Monday it said results to date were in line with its full-year expectations. BAE Systems has warned the UK's Ministry of Defence it can not build the designs of its two new aircraft carriers to budget, the Financial Times reported. Reckitt Benckiser is considering making a 566 million pound bid for condom maker SSL International according to the Business on Sunday. Stagecoach has secured a three-year deal to continue running the UK's busiest regional rail franchise, though the regulator has set tough new terms Pace Loss 16.2 million but the Group move close to break-even for the second half, following trading losses in the previous two half year periods. Dividends have been cancelled.
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Crocodile - 13 Jul 2003 16:45 - 2 of 18
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Trading Thoughts
Few highlights on a quiet week ahead for UK marketsMondayPace Micro Technology will show the impact of a difficult year on Monday as its annual results will bear the brunt of the ITV Digital collapse and the financial turmoil affecting NTL and Telewest. Tturnover is expected to have halved to 180m with pre-tax losses of 16m compared with profits of 13.1m last time. Tuesday Reckitt Benckiser should match first-quarter sales growth of 6% when it reports figures for the next three months although the Sars outbreak may have affected trading in Asia. Updated versions of existing brands such as Airwick air freshener and Dettol disinfectant have helped progress so far this year, although the bottom-line sales figure will again be hit by negative currency exchange movements. UK inflation figures for June are published. Fears that inflation may dip below target in the medium-term was cited by the Bank of England as among for reasons for cutting rates, although analysts are not expecting any sharp drop just yet. Wednesday First quarter figures from retailer Marks & Spencer are expected to struugle against last years strong performance when the company's recovery was in full swing. Broker Gerrard expects a strong like-for-like sales performance from the food division, with better weather in June likely to have lifted clothing demand after a difficult May. The figures will be released ahead of the company's annual general meeting later in the day. ThursdayMisys annual results on Thursday will be keenly watched for the outlook statement, with the recent movement of the company's share price suggesting the market is already confident about prospects. The Misys statement said trading had been in line with guidance set out in January so Gerrard is forecasting pre-tax profits of 117m compared with 94m a year earlier. Northern Rock should keep up its recent record of beating the earnings growth enjoyed by rival UK banks when it reports interim results. The mortgage market is still buoyant and lending so far in 2003 suggests another bumper year so Gerrard is forecasting a 14% improvement to 175m. Lat week I used historical data to show that the FTSE often falls at the start of July. After a good start on Monday it did fall back but a rally on Monday ruined the prediction. Next week I will go with the status quo and say the markets will remain in the 4020 and 4180 trend which now seems to be firmly established for the summer season. After that quick posting I am going to continue with my hols! Wishing you all the best for the week ahead and as ever looking forward to your thoughts. David |
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David@FTSEDOW.COM www.FTSEDOW.com All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research. |
Sunday 6th July
(Crocodile)
Financial Diary - (Crocodile)
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All Times GMT |
United Kingdom F)inals (I)nterim |
United States (Click Flag) |
ope & World |
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Mon 13th July Reports / Data |
Pace Micro (F) PTL 19.4m exp. Also Reporting: Homestyle Group (F) Burberry Trading Statement Interserve Trading Statement 00.00 June BRC Retail sales Monitor US: Citigroup (Q2) 09.30 June PPI Input m/m 0.4% exp. 09.30 June PPI Output m/m 0.1% exp. |
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Tue 14th
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Reckitt Benckiser Trading StatementBritish Airways (AGM), Premier Oil (AGM), SSL International (AGM) 08.55 BOEs King & Lomax Testify to Parliamentary Treasury Committee ope: Philips (Q2) 09.30 June RPIX y/y 3.0% exp. |
Intel (Q2), Motorola (Q2) 13.00 US July Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.65 exp. 13.30 US June Advance Retail Sales 0.4% exp. 15.00 US Greenspan Testimony to Congress |
10.00 July German ZEW Index 25.0 exp. |
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Wed 15th
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IMarks & Spencer AGM & Q1 Trading StatementPeacocks AGM & Q1 Trading Statement BT Group (AGM)09.30 June Unemployment +5k exp. ope: OM AB (Q2) 09.30 May Average Earnings 3m y/y 3.4% exp. |
US: Apple (Q2), Ford (Q2), IBM (Q2) 13.30 US June CPI y/y 0.2% exp. 13.30 US May Business Inventories 0.1% exp. 13.30 US June Industrial Production 0.1% exp. 14.15 US June Capacity Utilization 74.4% exp. 18.00 US July NAHB housing Market Index 63.0 exp. |
11.00 June o-Zone CPI y/y 2.0% exp. |
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Alphameric (0.65), Bristol Water (49.8), Castings (5.87), Christian Salvesen (1), Halma (3.527), Henlys Group (1), Investec (28), Jarvis Hotels (3.8), Kensington Group (3), Lonmin (US$ 0.3), Mountview Estates (52), Shanks Group (3.8), Wincanton (6.75), Yates Group (3.3) |
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Thu 16th |
Misys (F) PBT 117m exp. ,Bespak (F) Northern Rock (I) PBT 175m exp.New Look AGM & Q1 Trading Statement Dairy Crest (AGM), De La Rue (AGM), Northern Foods (AGM) |
Honeywell (Q2), Microsoft (Q2),Coca Cola (Q2), GM (Q2), 13.30 US June Housing Starts 1745k exp. US: 13.30 US Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 12/07) 425k exp. 17.00 US July Philly Fed 7.0 exp. |
Nokia (Q2), SAP (Q2) 11.00 May o-Zone Industrial Production m/m 0.4% exp. |
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Fri 17th |
Marconi Q1 Trading UpdateBAA (AGM) 09.30 June Preliminary M4 y/y 8.1% exp. ope: Ericsson (Q2) 09.30 June PSNCR 9.2bn exp. 09.30 June CML, BBA & BSA Lending Figures |
14.50 US July Preliminary Michigan Sentiment 91.0 exp. |
11.00 May o-Zone Trade Balance 11.00 Labour Costs y/y 2.8% exp. |
| Provisional Calendar For The Following Week | |||
| Mon 21st |
Alterian AGM Bristol Water AGM Forminster AGM Forth Ports AGM Mercury Recycling AGM Whitehead Mann AGM BCC quarterly economic survey (1000 GMT) RICS monthly house prices (2330 GMT) |
10:00 AM EST Leading Indicators 2:00 PM EST Treasury Budget | |
| Tue 22nd |
Arm Holdings (I), Epic Group (F) Wyndeham Press AGM Liontrust First AGM Economics leading indicators (0830 GMT) CBI Quarterly industrial trends survey (1000 GMT) DMO announces size on gilt |
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| Wed 23rd |
RGlaxoSmithKline July 23 (Q2) Provident Financial July 23 (I) Aberforth Split Level Trust July 23 (F) |
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| Thur 24th |
Homestyle July 24 (F) Legal & General July 24 (I) Royal Dutch/Shell July 24 (Q2) X |
8:30 AM EST Initial Claims | |
| Fri 25th |
Alliance & Leicester July 25 (I) |
8:30 AM EST Durable Orders 10:00 AM EST Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM EST New Home Sales | |
Crocodile - 13 Jul 2003 16:45 - 3 of 18
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Sunday News 13th July Sunday Express Consolidated Minerals, the Australian mining company, has a 5% stake in the world's high-grade manganese ore market. Demand for the commodity has grown in China and Europe. Broker Numis says increasing production should lift profits in the second half of the year. Buy at 26p. Despite a bad year behind it, photobooth operator Photo-Me International looks back on track with a big cut in borrowings. Hardman & Co is cautious with forecasts of pre-tax profits of 10 million this year and 16 million next. Overseas operations have held up well. Buy at 70 1/4p. |
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| Aston Villa Hotel group puts itself on market Cordiant Communications, WPP Publicis angered by bid smear Eircoms backers to pocket millions Chelsfield to the superstars leads 2bn Chelsfield buyout BT, Esat BT bank job springs 160m BAT aims for showdown with the Marlboro man HBOS Banker to the superstars leads 2bn Chelsfield buyout Ronson fired up by hairspray tycoons |
Iron Mountain seals 200m deal with Hays Carlton City assassin targets ITVs Green and Allen Bloomberg hits back at Reuters lawsuit Spurs launch 15m rights issue Powderject Biotech boy wonder shares his secrets BAT in bid for Italys tobacco giant Granada City assassin targets ITVs Green and Allen Gresham staff press for bonus |
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| Hardy Underwriting has been a stellar performer in the past year, its shares have risen from 150p to 218 1/2p. Like its peers, it has benefited from a booming insurance market and soaring premiums. But some analysts believe that insurance rates in London have reached the top of the cycle. While there is no evidence yet that they are falling, some will start to take profits. Nevertheless investors should hold. | ||||||||
| BAE poised for 1bn Hawks sale WPP Publicis wants deal with Active over Cordiant Hays to sell its storage business | Publicis wants deal with Active over Cordiant Icap next to face shareholder rebellion BSkyB Sky makes all-out bid | |||||||
| Sunday Telegraph Reed Elsevier, the publishing group, held a presentation last week to highlight its online sales which are now approaching 25% of turnover. Internet sales may well account for as much as much as 50% of its sales in around five years. This is not simply a case of transferring existing customers from print versions, there is also significant potential to generate additional sales. Buy at 492 3/4p. Shares in Stanelco rose 1p last week on news that the company has developed a technology that will enable shoppers to buy their vegetables in biodegradable trays made from potato starch. But this might not be the only development on the horizon. Shares look attractive at 3 1/4p. Kingston Communications, the Hull-based telecoms company, has rallied strongly since its year low of around 32p but we believe there is still a long way to go. The company has focused on cash generation and winning new customers. At 61 1/2p, shares are trading at a substantial discount to rivals - worth buying. | ||||||||
| Daily Mail | Hays sell-off to raise 160m WPP, Call for Cordiant shares inquiry 6m for failure at Big Food group Diageo 'Burger King wrecked my empire' | Call for Cordiant shares inquiry 250m currency windfall for HSBC Another MyTravel director quits Group Insider likely to get Whitbread top job | ||||||
| Observer |
RBS Meridien rescue collapses BP Pipe dreams of Iraqi oil GlaxoSmithKline 'Overpaid' Garnier set to win a rise HSBC homes in on Muslims |
Active Value plots swoop for control of Cordiant GUS News in brief WPP Active Value plots swoop for control of Cordiant Corus News in brief |
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| Independent | BAA urges Government to charge airlines for pollution Tesco Cabinet in chaos over chemists BAT under pressure to quit 'dire' Uzbekistan | |||||||
| You might not think that the shores of Loch Ness could produce a return for investors but thanks to utility company Scottish & Southern Energy, which has hydroelectric plants there, the area may have more than just beautiful scenery to offer. The benefits of its focus on renewable energy have been highlighted in a recent research note from Deutsche Bank. The Government's current policy is to reward companies building renewable power generators. With a dividend* of 24 1/2p it is also attractive to investors in light of last week's interest rate cut. Worth a look at 636p. | ||||||||
| HBoS is pushing the envelope Granada Wealthy widow's surprise gambit HBOS and investors form joint venture Northern Rock steady in buoyant mortgage market as Scottish stocks rise Macdonald Hotels asks Christie's to revalue assets | Future looks healthy for BAT as tobacco giant considers buying Camel HBOS Split cap trust takes gamble on debts Old Firm rivalry revisited as chef and Celtic appear together Carlton Wealthy widow's surprise gambit Thistle Mining launches another attack on rand | |||||||
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Tips:*Hanson (sell) - Aquarius Platinum (buy) - Reliance Security (buy) - Enterprise (buy) - Millfield (sell) - Stadium (buy). Tip Updates:*Findel (fairly priced) - Clarkson (buy) - CA Coutts (good value) - Fairplace (hold) - Goshawk Insurance (keep buying). |
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| The Plays of the Week:*Ramco - Jarvis, - XKO - Invox - Staffware Stocks to Watch: *Cyprotex - BT (BTA.L) - De La Rue - Global Group - Homestyle - Bellway - Edinburgh Oil & Gas - Peacocks | ||||||||
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Crocodile - 14 Jul 2003 07:46 - 4 of 18
Druid2
- 14 Jul 2003 08:10
- 5 of 18
IanT(MoneyAM)
- 14 Jul 2003 09:18
- 6 of 18
This should now be resolved, but if you are still experiencing problems, please e mail me ian@moneyam.com
IAn
Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 11:14 - 7 of 18
"We believe that the street has underestimated the improvement in gross margin that Intel should realize over the coming six to eight quarters. Better than average selling prices should continue to flow from the shift toward mobile machines, where Intel sees better pricing," Merrill said in a note to clients.
NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC - News), the No. 3 U.S. bank, on Monday said second-quarter net profit rose, helped by mortgage banking and rising deposits.
The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank reported profit of $2.74 billion, or $1.80 per share, compared with $2.22 billion, or $1.40 per share, a year earlier.
NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C - News), the world's largest financial services company, on Monday said second-quarter net profit rose, helped by gains in its securities and consumer operations.
The New York-based bank reported profit of $4.3 billion, or 83 cents per share, compared with $4.08 billion, or 78 cents per share, a year earlier. The year-earlier total included operating income from Travelers Property Casualty.
capt M - 14 Jul 2003 11:49 - 8 of 18
Croc, thanks for the info as usual. Hope u are having a great hol.
Da Bear, interesting comment on Intel above. Looks like its possible that chipmakers may see an uptuirn at last - time for a punt on soma ARMs?
Frtom todays ZDnet news: Chipmakers are pumping money into plants and equipment, in a dramatic reversal of previous years' budgets, says a new report
After years of cutting budgets, chipmakers will spend more on building facilities in 2003 -- an increase that could benefit chip-gear manufacturers, according to a new report.
Worldwide semiconductor capital spending will reach $29.9bn (18.36bn) in 2003, an increase of 7.9 percent from $27.7bn the previous year, research firm Gartner forecast in a report released Wednesday. The predicted rise follows two years of declines.
Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 13:03 - 9 of 18
1.2 billion shares traded Friday on the NYSE. Weak volume. The up volume amounted to 815 millions, the down volume 361 millions shares.So the up volume reached 70% of the total volume.Upward should ideally be accompanied with strong volume.We did not see that on Friday.I would like to see the recent highs on the SPX DOW re-visited but they are now lagging the NDX, usually when a top is building the NDX shows weakness first but this time its reversed it would seem, as the other indices put in there highs weeks ago, time for them is running out, what with the declining volume picture on there respective up days.I think they have no more than about 10 days to get to there 61.8% #s if they are going to get there DOW 9355 area, 9474 possible if we get a blow up, SPX 1019/20 if it gets over 1015.33. Recent high on NDX is 1307.Options expiration is this week so they were buying calls on friday for there expected this time of month payday rally.We shall see.
The Vix put in a 52 week low on friday down 3.8% to 20.72. I am watching this closely as its telling me a top is near.
The Nasdaq closed at 1733.90 points 1.1% higher; the semiconductors ended up 0.1% thereby showing relative weakness.
Druid2
- 14 Jul 2003 13:56
- 10 of 18
I hope you're right that the top is near as my shorts are hurting at the moment.
Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 15:06 - 11 of 18
Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 15:11 - 12 of 18
Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 15:14 - 13 of 18
Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 15:37 - 14 of 18
Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 15:48 - 15 of 18
strange considering Six Dow stocks reach 52-week highs ($INDU, INTC, HPQ, CAT, JPM, C, AXP)
Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 15:51 - 16 of 18
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9E666B1A%2D10D1%2D4DB9%2D9762%2D7690C1B9709A%7D&siteid=mktw
Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 16:12 - 17 of 18
Total dollar value of all insider purchases and sales provides an aggregated measure of how insiders may feel about the market's short-term prospects. A low sell/buy ratio indicates bullish Insider Sentiment. A high sell/buy ratio indicates bearish Insider Sentiment.
http://insider.thomsonfn.com/tfn/insider.asp?imodule=mktTearsheet
Da Bear - 14 Jul 2003 21:29 - 18 of 18
options expiration week sometimes the Tuesdays and Wednesdays in these weeks can jam prices in opposite directions. Tomorrow all eyes on INTC and greenspan as he's on Capitol Hill (3pm BST) tomorrow chatting about the eco picture, he will do his utmost to spin the economy in a positive light, hmmm wonder if the term "falling inflation" gets a mention in there somewhere
Off to look at some charts to see whats the story.
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