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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 21st July (SCTN)
Crocodile - 20 Jul 2003 13:01
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Gold
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S&P &Futures (Click for latest)
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Pre Market Futures (7:30) | |
| FTSE | +21 | ||
| TechMark | +3 | ||
| DAX | +18 | ||
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Hang Seng +41
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Nikkei +-
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DOW | -1 |
| S&P | -0.4 | ||
| Nasdaq | +0.5 | ||
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News Headlines: The FTSE 100 is expected to rise at the opening to play catch up with Wall Street, which continued to race ahead after London's close Eurotunnel said its loss was EUR22 million, compared with EUR138 million last year. As a result of the continuation of these difficult market conditions, the company is now unlikely to achieve the full year revenues needed to cover interest charges from cash-flow. However, as market conditions improve the shuttle revenue growth should pick up again as in the past. Prudential looks set to cut its dividend for the first time since 1914 in a move which is expected to save the most famous name in British insurance about 200 million each year.Smiths Group: said it was selling its polymers division for 495 million pounds to Swedish engineer Trelleborg Mitchells & Butlers Britain's biggest managed pubs company is ready to mount a joint bid with Whitbread for Scottish and Newcastle pubs and hotels business, Corus has secured the final backing of its lead banks, ABN AMRO, Credit Suisse First Boston and HSBC for a new refinancing packageBritish Airways will hold crisis talks with unions in an effort to end unplanned industrial action,
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Crocodile - 20 Jul 2003 13:01 - 2 of 9
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Trading Thoughts
A busier weak ahead with several blue-chips set to report first half figuresTuesday Despite the recent rally in its share price Reuters is likely to say that gloomy conditions continue to take their toll when it posts half-year results on Tuesday. The company hit by the economic as City institutions buy fewer of its financial information products. Analysts forecast pre-tax profits of around 54m, compared with losses of 10m last year. WednesdayGlaxoSmithKline is expected to show continued strong growth of its Advair asthma product when it reports interim results. Investors will also be looking for early trends from the diabetes drug Avandamet and possible details of a planned share buyback. Sales of menopausal treatment Paxil are expected to show little growth due to tough comparisons with last year. and sales of its antibiotic Augmentin are expected to be down about 40%. The company is expected to post pre-tax profits of 1.91bn for the six months, from 1.83bn last time. Provident Financial should unveil a solid increase in half-year profits with acquisitions and overseas sales expected to have offset tough conditions in the UK. Analysts predict pre-tax profits of between 79.3m and 82.2m, from last year's 74.6m. Capita Group, the support services company that operates London's jam-busting congestion charge has bids in the pipeline of around 2.4bn but the absence of new work could raise fears about growth for 2004. Broker Gerrard predicts half-year pre-tax profits of 53m, from 40.1m last time. Ex dividends are poor with only Misys paying 3.55p showing any valueThursdayLegal & General's new business from distribution deals with the likes of Barclays, Woolwich and Northern Rock will be the focus when it reports on Thursday. L&G's profits are forecast to have risen to about 394m for the half-year, from 365m last time. Strong first-quarter sales are likely to have continuedFridayAlliance & Leicester is expected report interim pre-tax profits of around 228m, similar to last year's figures supported by cost cutting Last week we resumed our winning trend with a forecast that the FTSE would stay above its 4020. This week we can its is becoming trapped in a wedge with the upper resistance at 4200 and the red support line currently at 4050. This leads me to feel that it will be another up week with the UK market pushing 4100. Now to enjoy the last couple of days holiday after a night of thunderstorms here in Le Touquet. Wishing you all the best for the week ahead and as ever looking forward to your thoughts! David |
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David@FTSEDOW.COM www.FTSEDOW.com All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research. |
Sunday 20th July
(Crocodile)
Financial Diary - (Crocodile)
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All Times GMT |
United Kingdom F)inals (I)nterim |
United States (Click Flag) |
Europe & World |
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Mon 21st July Reports / Data |
Eurotunnel (I), St Modwen Properties (I) 11.00 UK BCC Q2 Economic Survey |
Texas Instruments (Q2) 15.00 US June Leading Indicator 0.1% exp. |
11.00 EMU May Euro-Zone Trade Balance |
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Tue 22nd
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ARM Holdings (Q2) PBT 7.7m exp. Reuters (I) PBT 54m exp. IG Group (F)Debenhams Trading Statement easyJet Trading Statement mmO2 Trading Statement 00.30 UK June RICS Housing Survey US: 11.00 UK CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey |
Amazon (Q2), Amgen (Q2), Sun Micro (Q2)
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Wed 23rd
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ICadbury Schweppes (I) PBT 365m exp GlaxoSmithKline (Q2) PBT 1910m exp. Provident Financial (I) PBT 82.2m exp. Autonomy (Q2 GUS AGM & Q1 Trading Statement Sainsbury AGM & Q1 Trading Statement BPB (AGM), Colt Telecom (Q2), Cordiant (EGM), Egg (I), FKI (AGM), Invensys (AGM) 09.30 UK Bank of England Minutes |
Anheuser-Busch (Q2), AOL TimeWarner (Q2) Computer Associates (Q2), Boeing (Q2) |
Volvo (Q2) |
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BPB (8.9), British Land (9.3), Burberry (2), Countryside Properties (2.62), Firstgroup (7.45), Galen Holdings (1.2), Granada (1), Hornby (19), John David Group (3.64), London Stock Exchange (3), Misys (3.55), Northern Foods (5.45), PHS Group (0.38),Wyndeham Press (2.5) |
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Thu 24th |
AstraZeneca (Q2) PBT $806m exp. Capita Group (I) PBT 53m exp. Legal & General (I) PBT 394m exp. Royal Dutch/Shell (Q2) $2928m exp Scottish Power (Q1) PBT 168.9m exp. Daejan Holdings (F), MFI Furniture (I), Renishaw (F) Cable & Wireless Trading Statement Boots Trading Statement 09.30 UK June Retail Sales |
US: Lockheed Martin (Q2), Nortel (Q2) 13.30 US Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 19/07) 415k exp
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Merck (Q2), Siemens (Q3), KLM (Q1) |
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Fri 25th |
Alliance & Leicester (I) PBT 227m exp. Telemetrix (I) 09.30 UK Q2 Preliminary GDP 0.45 q/q 1.9% y/y exp |
13.30 US June Durable Goods Orders 1.1% exp. 15.00 US June New Home Sales 1100k exp. 15.00 US June Existing Homes Sales 6.0m exp. |
Europe: Pirelli (Q2) |
| Provisional Calendar For The Following Week | |||
| Mon 28th |
BAA (Q1), Datamonitor J(I) Exel July 28 (I), Filtronic (F) Monsoon (F), Pearson (I) Royalblue Group (I) Aggregate Industries PLC FY2003 BG Group Q2 Jardine Lloyd Thompson (I) Pearson PLC FY2003 (I) Vodafone Group PLC Q1 |
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| Tue 29th |
Prudential (I), Allied Irish Bank (I) Elementis (I), Games Workshop (F) Novar (I) Amersham (I) Aquarius Platinum (F) BP PLC Q2 British American Tobacco Q2 Novar PLC FY2003 preliminary (I) RPS Group PLC (I) St James's Place Capital (I) United Business Media (I) Prudential PLC new business |
Consumer Confidence |
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| Wed 30th |
Friends Provident (I), Unilever (I) George Wimpey (I), TDG (I) Osmetech (F), Abbey National (I) Alliance Unichem preliminary (I) Anglo American (I) Croda International (I), RAC (I) Unilever Q2 AWG AGM, British Energy AGM Severn Trent AGM, United Utilities AGM Vodafone Group AGM, mmO2 AGM |
Fed's Beige Book | |
| Ex Dividend: Bankers' Investment Trust (1.7), Greene King (21.3), ICAP (23) | |||
| Thur 31st |
Alfred Mcalpine (I), Centrica (I) Chubb (I), HBOS (I), Smith & Nephew (I) Alfred McAlpine (I), Aviva (I) BT Group Q1, British Airways Q1 Centrica (I), Chubb (I), HBOS (I), Hanson (I) ICI (I), Laird Group (I), Rio Tinto (I), Rolls-Royce (I) Smith & Nephew (I), Trinity Mirror (I) Aviva new business figures Carphone Warehouse Group trading statement |
Chain Deflator-Adv. Employment Cost Index GDP-Adv, Initial Claims Chicago PMI | |
| Fri 25th |
Amvescap H1 earnings results Lloyds TSB Group H1 earnings results United Kingdom CIPS/Reuters UK PMI July |
Auto Sales & Truck Sales Average Workweek & Hourly Earnings Nonfarm Payrolls Personal Income & Spending Unemployment Rate Mich Sentiment-Rev. Construction Spending, ISM Index |
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| david@ftsedow.com www.ftsedow.com | |||
Crocodile - 20 Jul 2003 13:02 - 3 of 9
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Sunday News
20th July
Sunday Express S&N to raise Centerpulse bid -- paper - M&B seen bidding for rival pub business - RBS reported considering offer for U.S. bank - Reuters BT said to be rejected for government contract - BT Group has been struck off the list of firms competing for a government IT project worth 4 billion pounds, Interest rates have now bottomed unless house prices collapse, according to a study by The Ernst and Young - Reuters Prime Minister Tony Blair has told Japanese business leaders that euro entry is essential to Britain's future and that he is working hard to ensure the economics were right to go in. |
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Ireland: Eircom plans new assault on mobile market HBOS expansion plans behind $1bn buyout Centrica, Business Digest Royal Bank of Scotland, Meridien's survival in the balance Scottish and Newcastle, Pub company reneges on 400m pledge Glocer sweeps away the gloom from Reuters Royal Bank of Scotland, Permira poised to pounce Mitchells & Butlers Pub company reneges on 400m pledge BAE 'told MoD about shortfall' Royal Bank of Scotland considers move for 3bn Philadelphia bank Sharewatch: HBOS |
Granada, Carlton 'Quiet assassin' who has his finger on ITV merger trigger A Share in the Boardroom: Anite Group Directors' Deals: Next boss makes 3m in his summer sale WH Smith Former Our Price stores put up for sale again Rank Group Welcome to the There Is Something Going On column British American Tobacco, BOC Group, Dixons Shareholders go back to dividends Waterford Wedgewood bosses who failed to read crystal ball must pay price Easyjet battles rivals with new 'time and money' strategy Share of the week: Marks & Spencer Volex, Irish Business Digest Manchester United,W elcome to the There Is Something Going On column | |||||||
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Britain's biggest managed pubs company, Mitchells & Butlers, is poised to mount a joint bid with Whitbread for Scottish and Newcastle's pubs and hotels business The Royal Bank of Scotland is considering an offer for Philadelphia-based Sovereign Bancorp as it continues on its U.S. acquisition spree High Street retail bellwether Marks & Spencer rudely awakened shareholders last week when a downbeat trading statement reduced the shares 7.1% in a day to 311 1/4p. News that first-quarter clothing sales were not growing as quickly as hoped spooked the City and M&S's 'bull-in-chief', Deutsche Bank, downgraded its rating to 'hold'. M&S still trades on a fairly hefty valuation, with a price/earnings ratio of 15.3 not far behind sector darling Tesco at 15.4. |
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| Royal Bank of Scotland, Meridien on brink as rescue falters BT, Mobile groups try to wriggle out of price cut Smiths close to 500m disposal Pru cuts its dividend for first time since 1914 Smith and Nephew to raise Centerpulse bid |
Northern Rock, Rocky times ahead Cadbury eschews the fat Safe way for Sainsbury London Stock Exchange 'Our customers will end up paying for this' MyTravel nears deal Wildcat strikes cost BA 20m |
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Medical devices firm Smith & Nephew is poised to raise its bid for Swiss orthopaedics group, Centerpulse AG, to trump a rival offer from Zimmer Hotel and gaming business Hilton Group is an excellent recovery play. It has a widely-respected management and can look forward to continued growth from its Ladbrokes unit, which could be worth up to 1.9bn on its own. A way forward for the group could be to merge with rival Intercontinental, while Hilton's existing hotels will benefit from any business travel recovery as the US and European economies improve. The shares are significantly undervalued and the group trades on a forward earnings multiple of 13 times, compared to 17 times for Intercontinental. Buy. Small but well-run rail operator GB Railways, which runs Anglia Railways, Hull Trains and GB Railfreight, is shortlisted to win several rail franchises. Last week, FirstGroup offered 250p a share for GB, an extra 200p if GB wins Greater Anglia and 50p more if it wins a further franchise. Investors who bought shares in June would now sit on a 67% profit. Sell. |
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| Observer |
National Grid faces corruption inquiry BSkyB Transco EC calls foul on Sky's 1bn live football deal Sainsbury a nation of shopkeepers, meet the first family Sainsbury's strategy just won't check out Manchester United, Sir Alex sees the bigger picture |
Manchester United Who's bigger than Becks out east? Trinity MirrorMemo to Sir Victor: What about Piers? Prudential, How man from the Pru stored up a load of trouble Royal Bank of Scotland Luxury Meridien chain on brink of collapse SSL InternationalI, Nasty taste in the mouth :-) | ||||||
| Independent |
BT snubbed over 4bn IT project Reuters GroupThe Week Ahead: BT Group Pink elephants can't halt the jobs stampede as UK plc outsources to India The Week Ahead: Cable and Wireless, Shell Transport |
Limping down the runway, a BAE-Boeing merger may just get off the ground Yoof appeal comes too late at Sainsbury's, the supermarket that was left on the shelf Advair helps Glaxo to breathe easily | ||||||
| BT Group has been struck off the list of firms competing for a government IT project worth 4 billion poundsLast week's heatwave pulled the public into the boozer and investors are sizing up listed pub players. While Wolverhampton & Dudley and Mitchells & Butlers are fairly priced, Scottish & Newcastle presents a more risky, but potentially more rewarding, way into the sector. S&N's brewing operations are not enormously attractive from an investment perspective, but the group has 1,500 British pubs and is in the process of selling them. The sale is a big potential draw for investors because there is believed to be much interest in the estate. The group's fundamentals are also appealing. | ||||||||
| BAA's commercial thrust makes sense for airports EasyJet Business news in brief Debenhams shareholders angry at bosses' takeover bonus Wiggins Group Property firm to land 80m airport group Belhaven rolls out the barrels ScottishPower back on track as its earnings per share rise by 1.8p Branson offers hope to Alstom |
Drugs giants find generic competition a bitter pill to swallow GlaxoSmithKline find generic competition a bitter pill to swallow Legal & General Celtic Resources to launch credit card for US fans Stagecoach Group Havelock Europa has high hopes of gaining contracts Manchester United, Celtic to launch credit card for US fans MyTravel Group Business news in brief |
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| Sunday Express | Northern Rock's strong interims last week provided an excellent start to the bank reporting season. The former building society's half-year pre-tax profits were 179m, a 3.1% increase on the second half last year and 17.2% on the first half, after stripping out the 7.3m credit card book sale. Northern Rock reported record first half net* mortgage lending of 3.8bn, representing a market share of about 9.5% - just over twice its natural market share - and forecast another good year for mortgage volumes. Buy at 689p | |||||||
| Buy - WPP - DTZ - North Midland Construction - Dobbies Garden Centre - Wealth Management SoftwareSell - Cambridge Antibody .BioCompatibles (good value) - Smiths (good value) - Tikit (fairly priced) - Air Partner (hold) - United Utilities (good value). | ||||||||
| Buy ICI at 138p - Proteome Sciences at 156p - Pursuit Dynamics at 40p (Speculative) Innobox at 4.625p. Buy Dyson Group , Pilat Global Media, Hold GB Railways Domino's Pizza - Richmond Foods - Excel Airways - Northgate - PHS Group Buy Software at 485p - Metalrax at 78.5p - Guiton Group at 215p - Coda SciSys at 280p - AB Foods at 533.5p - PZ Cussons at 865p - BAT at 669p - Rentokil Initial at 194.5p - Game Group at 52.5p - HMV Group at 154p. | ||||||||
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Teddy Bear - 20 Jul 2003 13:15 - 4 of 9
grateful teddy
ThePlayboy
- 21 Jul 2003 07:21
- 5 of 9
R2 4107
R1 4090.1
PP 4073.3
S1 4056.4
S2 4039.6
Close above Fridays PP, lost only 0.3 in the auction, close still below 4085 (50% fib) to 4054 (38.2% fib) trading range.
DJ AT OUR CLOSE 9083/S&P 983
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4184.4
R1 4128.8
PP 4080.4
S1 4024.8
S2 3976.4
Close above this weeks PP.
Crocodile - 21 Jul 2003 07:43 - 6 of 9
Blow to BT this morning with it being ordered to cut internet charges by 17% and backdated to 2000
Druid2
- 21 Jul 2003 08:34
- 7 of 9
ThePlayboy
- 21 Jul 2003 12:32
- 8 of 9
Da Bear - 21 Jul 2003 13:47 - 9 of 9
The S&P 500 has an important layer of support (stacked) at 988-974. A move under 973 50% Fib # which does not reverse immediately would increase odds that the next small area of support at 970-964 will ultimately fail, increasing the chances for a trip down to 949-912 with 925 the 38.2% #.
Immediate Nasdaq resistance is 1707-1720.The Nasdaq's band was 1722-1758 and that now represents big resistance. During Thursday's intraday activity, the Nasdaq established a layer of resistance at 1709.73-1715.79, so this represents a focus of resistance. The Nasdaq's support is 1686-1653
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