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Traders Thread - Wednesday 23rd July (CBRY)     

Crocodile - 22 Jul 2003 22:50

draw?period=1D&action=draw&startDate=10% draw?period=1D&action=draw&startDate=10%

Gold

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fpDJIA.gqplus?511 marketwatch-ss.img?symb=SP500 fpNASDAQ.gqplus?183

marketwatch-ss.img?symb=DAX

S&P &Futures (Click for latest)

globex.png

Pre Market Futures (7:30)
FTSE +19
TechMark +4
DAX +16

Hang Seng +-

Chart

Nikkei +-

Chart

DOW +23
S&P +3
Nasdaq +2

 

News Headlines:    In the US investors responded favourably to solid earnings from Texas Instruments and other companies, as well as confirmation of the demise of two of Saddam Hussein's sons. GlaxoSmithKline reports second-quarter results later on today.

Talks between BA and unions representing its workers broke down in the early hours of Wednesday, raising the threat of more strike action oCordiant: The takeover battle for the advertising firm is set to come to a head at a key shareholder meeting to decide the company's fate. Scottish & Newcastle A host of bidders will submit indicative bids in the 2.3 billion pounds sale of the brewer's pubs business, HBOS is in talks with fund manager Active Value to consider a bid for UK greyhound track and gaming group Wembley, The Times said. iSoft said late on Tuesday it was in advanced talks to take over rival Torex Rio Tinto said strong demand for iron ore saw production jump 19 percent in the second quarterLastMinute.com is once again being suggested as a possible bid target. The Guardian newspaper reported talk of a U.S. suitor for Lastminute in its market report. Sainsbury AGM holds its annual shareholder meeting and is expected to report like-for-like sales in the first quarter were near flat from a year ago.

Autonomy has posted a rise in second quarter revenues and profits and says deferred revenue has been at its highest level in three years, reflecting strong renewals

Provident Financial says its pre-tax profits rose almost 10 percent in the first half of 2003 to 82 million pounds, slightly ahead of expectations

Cadbury Later on Today.

Calendar

All GMT

ukf.gifUnited Kingdom (F)inals (I)nterim usf.gifUnited States (Click Flag) euro.gifEurope & World

Wed 23rd

 

 

 

 

ICadbury Schweppes (I) PBT 365m exp GlaxoSmithKline (Q2) PBT 1910m exp.

Provident Financial (I) PBT 82.2m exp.

Autonomy (Q2

GUS AGM & Q1 Trading Statement Sainsbury AGM & Q1 Trading Statement

BPB (AGM), Colt Telecom (Q2), Cordiant (EGM), Egg (I), FKI (AGM), Invensys (AGM)

09.30 UK Bank of England Minutes

Anheuser-Busch (Q2), AOL TimeWarner (Q2)

Computer Associates (Q2), Boeing (Q2)

Volvo (Q2)

BPB (8.9), British Land (9.3), Burberry (2), Countryside Properties (2.62), Firstgroup (7.45), Galen Holdings (1.2), Granada (1), Hornby (19), John David Group (3.64), London Stock Exchange (3), Misys (3.55), Northern Foods (5.45), PHS Group (0.38),Wyndeham Press (2.5)

Good Trading!   David@FTSEDOW.com    www.FTSEDOW.com

Bloomberg TV          

Pivot Calculator

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Bullshare - 23 Jul 2003 06:30 - 2 of 12

Morning all. happy trading.

Mike
PS Croc have a good one training today:-0

ThePlayboy - 23 Jul 2003 06:57 - 3 of 12

WED FTSE PP

R2 4103.8
R1 4091.7
PP 4067.6
S1 4055.5
S2 4031.4

Close just under Tue R1 (gained 3.9 in the auc) so above the PP and virtually on the weekly PP, fib range 4054 to 4085 still intact, further DJ gains will open up the 4117 (61.8) range, Dj below its PP at our close, all eyes on 9120 it seems, night all!

ThePlayboy - 23 Jul 2003 06:57 - 4 of 12

UP Above 9,240
DN Below 9,050

Volatile Session
Dow trades in volatile fashion, ends day near highs of session.

From prior commentary, "...the Dow has formed clear consolidation boundaries from 9,075 to 9,120, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. A break from this range will likely give us a clear indication of strength fairly quickly..."
The Dow got a downside break from the consolidation early in the session and moved lower throughout the first half of the morning. However, the index formed a v-bottom at today's lows and pushed sharply higher due to news-related information. Much of today's movement and volatility can be attributed to news-related events.

The Dow continues to trade sideways within the large triangle consolidation, seen in the Daily and 60 Minute Charts. Again, we will look for this type of behavior to continue until a solid break from the range is seen. Further volatility within the range can also be expected.

Looking at the 15 Minute Chart, you see that the index has formed a tight consolidation at the highs of the 15 Minute Chart. An upside break through the top of the patten at 9,180 will likely spark a move higher toward the upper boundary of the wide range at 9,240. A break through 9,240 will indicate even greater strength. Otherwise, a strong push through 9,050 will indicate weakness.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear short term resistance level at 9,175, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Use this level as a fulcrum for tomorrow's Open; going Long above and Short below.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Short this morning at 9,065, but closed the position at the entry due to the Breakeven Rule. We later entered the market Long at 9,120, but also closed the position for zero gain. Again, we are out of the market and will watch 9,050 down, and 9,240 up, with 10 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each moved higher today and ended the session within the boundaries of their respective consolidations. Watch the range boundaries for a break tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow traded in volatile fashion today, as news events created peaks and valleys throughout the session. The index ended the day near the highs of the session and could continue higher should a break through 9,180 occur. Watch 9,050 down, and 9,240 up for medium term trades.

Diego - 23 Jul 2003 07:02 - 5 of 12

Playboy,

How can I use those numbers, pp, r1 etc you provide to trade with?

Diego

ThePlayboy - 23 Jul 2003 07:21 - 6 of 12

diego-I post regularly on the traders BB and am an active trader, On the TB there is more of an explanation on how they work + figs for the 350! At the moment I have,nt got time to fully explain them (no offence), go on to google and type in pivot points and have a read up on them, if you watch the action of the ftse today you may seem where these figs come in handy, obviously we will gap up this morning and may near resistance at R2, see if it can get past this level, if not you may see selling starting! Really I cannot explain it all in one paragraph but they are great for daytrading, they must be used in conjuction with other indicators otherwise they cary a "wealth warning", have a read up on the net and get back to me, hopefully they will wet you appetite!

Crocodile - 23 Jul 2003 07:44 - 7 of 12

Morning all
Thanks Bullshare.

Crocodile - 23 Jul 2003 07:55 - 8 of 12

Cadbury Schweppes has posted a four percent drop in first-half earnings and forecast a similar performance for the full year amid tough U.S. drinks markets. They made underlying earnings per share (EPS) of 12.4 pence for the 24 weeks to June 15, down from 12.9p the year before and compared with a consensus forecast of 12.3p. In June the firm CBRY.L said poor weather, a slowdown in consumer spending growth and strong innovation from rivals such as Coca Cola Co KO.N were hurting its U.S. drinks business.

Druid2 - 23 Jul 2003 07:58 - 9 of 12

Morning all. PB gap up this morning. The big question is will they stay up? Thanks for your pivots.

ThePlayboy - 23 Jul 2003 08:01 - 10 of 12

Driud2-looking to 9am for the longer daily direction!

ThePlayboy - 23 Jul 2003 10:10 - 11 of 12

Diego- failure at R2, found small sup at R1, low the fib at 4085, working well today!

Da Bear - 23 Jul 2003 12:08 - 12 of 12

The VIX (market volatility index) continues to see-saw above and below its 10-day exponential moving average. Generally, a move above the 10-day is coincident with declining equity prices and a move below it is coincidental with rising equity prices. Near the close on Tuesday, the VIX's 10 day exponential moving average was 21.71.

The markets are still just moving sideways.

Most indicators I reference are at neutral readings, offering nothing convincing about the direction for prices over the short run.

The VIX will probably have to stay below 21.50 (which is under its 10-day exponential moving average) to suggest higher prices.The (VIX) fell around 5.2% to 20.98. The potential for sideways markets is increasing as the thickest part of the summer vacation period is only a week or so away and that might mean a lack of buying interest.

Relatively high put/call ratios near the end of the session on Tuesday suggest that there could be at least some upside in the morning on Wednesday, but these markets probably need a huge headline to inspire buying. The PUT/CALL ended at 0.77 points

Resistance: For the Nasdaq, 1722-1758 now represents big resistance.

Immediate Nasdaq resistance is 1707-1720, with a focus of resistance at 1709.73-1715.79.

The S&P 500's former trading band is now big resistance at 988-1015.41. Its focuses of resistance are 993-1000 and 1010-1015.

Support: The S&P 500 has an important layer of support (stacked) at 988-974. In Monday's session, the S&P 500 printed an intraday low of 975.63. The S&P 500 has an important support level at 974; if it were to spend more than just a few minutes below this level without attracting buyers, I think that would be a sign that the buyers are not interested at current levels and they are probably going to stand back, waiting for lower prices. This means that if prices spend time (more than 10 minutes) below 974, then I would expect the thin shelf of support at 970-964 to fail and that prices will probably have to test 949-912 support. This scenario would not have to unfold one trade day after another, short-term oversold rebounds in price are a natural phenomenon.

The Nasdaq has supports which run from 1699 to 1653. The layers inside this broad band of support are 1699-1697, 1686-1653, with a focus of support at 1682-1664. Due to the nature of the rise since the March lows, Nasdaq supports are stacked; the next support is 1648-1598.

March through June and July saw big stock market gains. The .382 Fibonacci retracement level for the S&P 500 is 930, for the NASDAQ it is roughly 1583. A 50% retracement of the March intraday low to the July intraday high would be about 902. If you looked at a 50% retracement of the worst close to the highest close, it would be about 904. For the Nasdaq, a 50% retracement from the lowest low to the highest high prints would be roughly 1515.

OEX $-weighted put/call @ Tue Jul 22 16:10:00 2003: 0.61 (calls: $15924700; puts: $9713950).

QQQ $-weighted put/call @ Tue Jul 22 16:10:00 2003: 1.81 (calls: $4885200; puts: $8843790).



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