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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 4th August (HSBA)
Crocodile - 03 Aug 2003 13:14
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Pre Market Futures (7:30) | |
| FTSE | -7 | ||
| TechMark | -3 | ||
| DAX | -14 | ||
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Hang Seng -62
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Nikkei -158
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DOW | -13 |
| S&P | -2.1 | ||
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News Headlines: EMI shares may rise with takeover rumours HSBC results later on this morning British Airways: : Ebookers says it is currently seeing lower-than-expected demand for some long- and mid-haul destinations, triggered by the effects of the deadly virus SARS and the Iraq war on consumer demand Inchcape motor vehicle distributor has posted a 16.5 percent rise in first-half profit and says market trends are likely to remain similar in its seasonally weaker second half. The firm sells nearly a fifth of the world's Maserati and Ferrari luxury sports cars, reported a profit of 66.4 million pounds beating analysts forecast of 64.1 million. Ultra Electronics has posted an 14.9 percent surge in first-half pre-tax profits to 15.8 million, and says it sees full-year results in line with estimates
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Crocodile - 03 Aug 2003 13:14 - 2 of 24
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Trading Thoughts
Banks will dominate results for the week ahead. One worry for them will be the quality of credit with the number of Britons going bankrupt hitting a 10-year high suggesting record consumer debt levels may have started to take their toll Mining stocks will also feature, with Anglo American reporting first half figures on Friday, while results from auto parts maker GKN on Thursday may influence stocks such as Tomkins. The market is expected to be generally quiet with one of the busiest holiday weeks of the year. The US sees another barrage of data next week, covering manufacturing, factory orders and jobless claims.MondayHSBC are expected to report a fall in profits to 3.2bn compared with 3.4bn a year ago due to a possible deterioration in credit quality.Tuesday:Royal Bank of Scotland are expected to release a strong set of figures with profits of 2.87bn, from 2.32bn a year ago with growth coming from Direct Line insurance and Retail Direct personal finance. Future growth is assured with the recent purchase of Churchill Insurance/ Wednesday:Standard Chartered's interims may show the effects of Sars in the Far East due to its strong presence in the region. Its is bravely trying to get a foothold into emerging markets such as Afghanistan. Analysts predicts profits to increase slightly to 396m. Galen Holdings release (Q3) figures with analysts expect profits of around 16.5m. News of the takeover rumour will be of interest which pushed the share price up from 600p to 742 for a short time. Thursday:Barclays reports first-half results with profits expected to come in flat or just above the 1.75bn of last time. It was reasonably confident at the last quarter trading update when it said higher business volumes had 'more than offset' the impact of historically low interest rates The main event of the week will be the Bank of England rate decision which is expected to remain unchanged after lust months cut to a 48-year low of 3.50%Reed Elsevier posts interims with profits expected to come in up 6% around 423m helped by with a good showing from its Science and Medical business as well as its legal publications operation. Ther has been some worries recently on a small decline' in revenues in its business division due to the drop in the advertising market and fewer non-annual exhibitions. In last weeks thoughts I called a down week on the markets but with a very low confidence factor. This turned out to be correct with the the FTSE down 32 points to close on Friday at 4,098.4 points. but it was a lucky call due to the WEDGE! From the Charts we can see the last 6 months uptrend has met the 3 year downtrend and the FTSE has already bounced back from the red resistance line on 2 occasions. This has created a wedge with the blue uptrend line so the question for this week is will it be a continuation or a reversal? Historically you should always go with the longer term trend as the best bet. As can be seen above this downtrend had proved to be very strong with at least 5 failed attempts to break through it. At some point this trend will be broken but the chances are not just yet. In this type of situation you normally find that the market does not fall away fast but continually test's the resistance line for some time before falling. So my call for this week is a narrow trading range between 4060 and 4130. If the FTSE closes above 4170 by the end of the week then that would be very positive for a good run to the year end. Wishing you all the best for the week ahead and as ever looking forward to your thoughts! David (Crocodile) |
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David@FTSEDOW.COM www.FTSEDOW.com All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research. |
Sunday 3rd August
Financial Diary - (Crocodile)
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All Times GMT |
United Kingdom F)inals (I)nterim |
United States (Click Flag) |
Europe & World |
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Mon 4th Augt Reporting Company Updates Financial Data |
HSBC (I) PBT 3,200m exp. Chubb (I), ebookers (I), Inchcape (I), Mayflower (I), Ultra Electronics (I) British Airways July Traffic Figures 09.30 July CIPS Construction Indtry PMI Europe: 09.30 July Preliminary M0 Money Supply y/y 7.3% exp. |
15.00 June Factory Orders 1.5% exp. |
Altana (Q2), Singul (Q2), Statoil (Q2) 11.00 June PPI m/m 0.1% exp. |
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Tue 5th
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BOC Group (Q3) PBT 105m exp.Royal Bank of Scotland (I) PBT 3,400m exp, Ryanair (Q1), Enodis (Q3), Lastminute.com (Q3), nCipher (I), Sherwood International (I) 09.30 July CIPS Services PMI 55.0 exp. : Cisco Systems (Q2) 09.30 June Indtrial Production m/m 0.1% exp. 09.30 June Manufacturing Production m/m 0.2% exp. |
15.00 July Non-Manufacturing ISM 58.0 exp. |
Clariant (I), Pernod Ricard (Q2) 09.00 July BME Services PMI 48.7 11.00 May Retail Trade m/m 0.5% exp. |
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Wed 6th
Ex Dividend |
Standard Chartered (I) PBT 486m exp. Rotork (I), Spirent (I), Galen Holdings (Q3)10.30 NTC, Deloitte & REC Report on Jobs Europe: |
Polo Ralph Lauren (Q2), AON (Q2), |
Bayer (Q2), Comerzbank (Q2), Total SA (I) 11.00 Q1 Final GDP q/q 0.1% exp. : 11.00 June Preliminary German Factory Orders |
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Allied Irish Bank (EUR 0.19), BG Group (1.6), BT Group (4.25), Berkeley Group (14.4), Blick (5), British American Tobacco (11.8), Crest Nicholson (3.5), Dominos Pizza (1.32), European Motor Holdings (4.3), Fenner (1.975), ISIS Asset Management (4),Lawrence Plc (3.95), Northgate (11.1), Pearson (9.4), RAC (9.7), Robert Wiseman (4.1), SSL International (8.4), St Jamess Place (1.25), WS Atkins (3) |
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Thu 7th |
Barclays (I) PBT 1,750m exp.GKN (I) PBT 124m exp.Reed Elsevier (I) PBT 423m exp. Signet Q2, Greggs (I), London Bridge Software (I), Millennium & Copthorne (I), Old Mutual (I), Senior Plc (I), WembleyPlc (I) EasyJet July Traffic Figures 00.01 July BRC Shop Price Index 09.30 June New Construction Orders 12.00 BOE Rate Announcement |
Barr Laboratories (Q2) 13.30 Q2 Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity 2.2% exp.13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 02/08) 394k exp. 15.00 June Wholesale Inventories flat exp. 20.00 June Consumer Credit $6.9bn exp. |
ABN Amro (Q2), BASF (Q2) BMW (Q2) 07.00 July Final German CPI m/m 11.00 June Preliminary German Industrial Prod |
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Fri 8th |
Anglo American (I) PBT $814m exp.Bradford & Bingley (I) PBT 139m exp. Q2 Land registry House Price Report |
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Deutsche Boerse (Q2), Ericsson (Q2) 11.00 June OECD Leading Indicator |
| Provisional Calendar For The Following Week | |||
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Mon 11th August Reporting Company Updates Financial Data |
Management Consulting (I), Morgan Sindall (I) Workspace Group (Q1), NWF Group (F) CeNeS Pharmaceuticals AGMJuly PPI (0830 GMT), June trade report (0830 GMT) CBI small and medium enterprises survey July BRC retail sales report (1700 GMT) |
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| Tue 12th |
British Sky Broadcasting Finals Rok Properties (I), Zotefoams (I) Carpetright (AGM), Castings (AGM) Designer Vision - IPO trading date. UK July Retail Price Indices (0830 GMT) BRC Retail Sales July, HICP M/M Y/Y July PPI Output, RPI July figures |
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| Wed 13th |
Balfour Beatty (I), Torex Average Earnings 3 Month Y/Y June, Claimant Count July |
Business Inventories, Export & Import Prices Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex-auto | |
| Quintain Estates and Development (5.25p), Scottish and Newcastle (20), Shell Transport & Trading (6.1), Smith (DS) (6p) | |||
| Thur 14th |
Countryside Assured (I) Pendragon Aug (I) |
Core PPI, Initial Claims Trade Balance, FOMC Minutes | |
| Fri 15th |
T Clarke (I) |
NY Empire State Index CPI figures, Capacity Utilization Industrial Production, Mich Sentiment-Prel. | |
Crocodile - 03 Aug 2003 13:15 - 3 of 24
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Sunday News 3 August Big City investors in BT are supporting an audacious plan for the former state-run telecommunications group to re-acquire its mobile arm, MMO2, in a deal that could be worth 5 billion. Cordiant Communications shares plunged 65pc to an all-time low Friday after the crisis-hit advertising group revealed it had been sacked by Allied |
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Scottish and Newcastle Independent News and Media Johnson goes for growth Windfall pays for Debenhams teams bid Debenhams Business Digest Buisness Digest: MyTravel Group Old Mutual takes its pick in buyers market WH Smith Bilderberg seeks supremo lizards need not apply Shareholder doubts over United Utilities 1bn rights issue Top Reed Elsevier executive defects MyTravel Group Betting made us 1m Business Digest AWG # Prize fruit too high to pick for Fyffes On the right track FirstGroup Scottish Business Digest MyTravel Group Unilever faces thin pickings as the Atkins diet bites Feature: Going Dutch boosts CRH balance sheet Macdonald eyes foreign resorts |
Blackstone serenades EMI with 2.5bn buyout approach Bank of Ireland to spend 142m doubling size of UK arm MyTravel denies Deutsche conflict BAE Systems Whitehall at war over contract for 2,000 new tanks Monsoon boss in job U-turn New Look founder may take fashion chain private BAE Systems Why Brown battled against the Hawk National Grid Transco has 5bn sale in pipeline Only 26 staff join British Airways new pension scheme BP American Account: Irwin Stelzer: Bush abandons plans to weaken Opecs power On Wall Street: Dominic Rushe: EMI should learn from Iron Maiden British Energy hires help to ride out crisis BA flies into fresh trouble with its pension deficits Trinity Mirror jobs to be axed in the birth pangs of Sly plc Directors' Deals: Ex-Colt boss sells 500,000 shares |
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| Monterrico Metals is expected to announce a substantial increase in the size of its key investment - a potential copper mine in Brazil. Bigger companies are thought to be keen to get involved, leaving Monterrico a speculative buy at 81p. | ||||||||
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Dixons ditches Freeserve for AOL British Energy Brussels condemns 3.3bn BE rescue LSE sets about ditching London Clearing House ICI Spot the bandwagon and resume sneering Petra Diamonds Debenhams defends the inducements |
Vodafone set to swallow 145m Project Telecom Aberdeen to pull plug on British Land deal BAA Terminal 5 rises in a Yorkshire field BT Group Danon's call to arms BAE Systems How the Hawk fought off an Italian predator | |||||||
| Sainsbury just lost second spot in the supermarket rankings but is rated a buy at 264p after a tour of the City by chief executive Sir Peter Davis revealed 'grounds for optimism'. Petra Diamonds is on a shortlist of two bidding for the privatisation of South Africa's Alexkor diamond mine, which produces 15% of the country's gem stones. Should Petra win, the shares - at 39 1/2p - are likely to be revalued. Industrial property specialist Ashtenne Holdings should soon announce a new 10-year lease for 570 homes at a Suffolk US airbase. Considered one of the smartest operators in the sector, shares have risen steadily and are a buy at 282 1/2p. | ||||||||
| Observer |
Now BT is urged to buy back MMO2 Blair lobbies Taiwan for Rolls-Royce BA faces new union battles New EC red card for BSkyB Carlton,Granada At risk: the only hacks people trust British Airways Touchdown at BA British American Tobacco BAT's way to do it |
Standard Chartered bids to manage new Iraq bank Bidders circle Trinity's Irish titles in 40m sale Corus to sell Alabama mill in streamline drive Could BAE be sold to the Americans? Trinity Mirror Sly's new Mirror image British Airways may yet be heading for a bumpy landing |
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| Sunday Mail |
BA ready to axe more jobs MyTravel Group Travel boss sues broker over losses 3.5bn price as Orange goes private Bid fever pressures Man Utd bosses Johnston Group Activists come a cropper as WPP snares Cordiant Hanover International come a cropper as WPP snares Cordiant Novar Activists come a cropper as WPP snares Cordiant |
Vodafone closes in on Project Prudential Dividend cuts: protecting your returns Rolls-Royce eyes 1bn Navy order New Sainsbury blow over 'sell-off' Midas: Cordiant Communications British Land Activists come a cropper as WPP snares Cordiant |
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| Independent | British Airways Companies fear 'red' brigade revival as unions fight among themselves Sly 'sexes up' old news and draws a Blank at Trinity Mirror LastMinute.com Will the City have B&B for breakfast? |
BAE to enjoy Indian summer with 1bn order for Hawk jets Expert View: A crisis of control on BA's flight deck Royal Bank of Scotland Will the City have B&B for breakfast? |
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| The hatchet man from the Prudential Aberdeen Asset Management property sale to British Land on brink of collapse Unhappy shareholders threaten to thwart HBOS move Tough talk on working practices from the BA boardroom CEO of Macdonald Hotels, will turn his attention towards buying... Macdonald Hotels Fear not, Macdonald investors |
Smith & Nephew ready to up the stakes in battle for Centerpulse Staff cut plan but no sale at Trinity Mirror Ryanair faces turbulence as challenger launches 'with-frills' service US expansion on agenda as RBS considers options BT Wireless revolution to propel home technology into 21st century HBOS Business news in brief |
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| Sunday Express | Half-year figures from Lloyds TSB last week were sufficiently strong with 11% growth in loans and advances to customers. Lloyds also repeated its promise that costs will grow at less than the rate of inflation. Shares are a buy at 459p. Aviva, the UK's biggest insurer, delivered strong interim results last week with operating profits at 828 million, a balance sheet ahead of expectations and cost reductions of around 16 million. Buy at 500 3/4p. Supply chain manager Kewill Systems recently extended its relationship with Sainsbury on the back of deals with JD Williams and Littlewoods. The group is also well placed for further growth overseas. Buy at 46p. Bookshop chain Ottakar's is on track with sales boosted by the latest Harry Potter book while the recent acquisition of Hammicks stores adds further scale. With a market share of 7%, there is plenty of scope. Buy at 295p. | |||||||
| Tips: Buy Diageo (DGE) at 633p - WS Atkins (ATK) at 290p - William Ransom (RNSM) at 39p - Firestone Diamonds (FDI) at 42p - Qualceram (QLC) at 84p.Sell FKI (FKI) at 96p.Tip Updates: Buy BAA (BAA) and Cairn Energy (CNE).Hold Whatman (WHM) and Hornby (HRN).Vantis (VTS) is good value. Company Results: Buy Alliance & Leicester (AL) - BAT (BATS) - GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) - Shell (SHEL) - BG Group (BG) - Cookson (CKSN).Sell AstraZeneca (AZN) - RoyalBlue (RYB) - Autonomy (AU) - Monsoon (MSN). | ||||||||
| The Plays of the Week: Buy Filtronic (FTC) at 134p - GTL Resources (GTL) at 11.5p - Inveresk (IVS) at 17p - TradingSports Exchange Systems (TES) at 135p. Updates:Sell Venture Production (VPC). Hold Chapelthorpe (CPL) and Caledon Resources (CDN).Company profiles:London Clubs International (LCI), Entertainment Rights (ERT). BAE Systems (BA). | ||||||||
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little woman
- 03 Aug 2003 14:57
- 4 of 24
I always thought August was a quiet month - wonder what gave me that idea!
Hope you're enjoying the weather, a least more than me - as I need to get away from this computer!!!
ThePlayboy
- 04 Aug 2003 06:57
- 5 of 24
r2 4177.6
r1 4138
pp 4117 (recent fib level)
s1 4077.7
s2 4057
lost 8.2 pts in the auction to close below Fridays S1 level, also closed below the previous strong Fib level of 4117, new FIB range therefore 4085/4117! DJ at our close was just above s1, needs to hold 9150.
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4212
R1 4155.3
PP 4126
S1 4069
S2 4039.7
Close below weekly pp not bullish, high of this week was Monday and low of the week was on Friday!
ThePlayboy
- 04 Aug 2003 06:58
- 6 of 24
Key DOW Levels for 8/4
UP Above 9,200
DN Below 9,135
Consolidating
Dow pushes lower, consolidates at the lows. Watch boundaries Monday.
From prior commentary, "...As has typically been the case as of late, the index continues to trade in a volatile fashion within the wide trading range...Look for further range movement within the boundaries of 9,150 and 9,360..."
The Dow moved lower right from the Open this morning and pushed down to the major lower trend line at 9,150, seen in the Daily and 60 Minute Charts. The index spent the rest of the session consolidating at the lows right at the lower line. The index has formed a tight range at the lows from 9,140 to 9,200, seen in the 15 Minute Chart.
The index is right at a key decision point, as the Dow is currently holding at the major lower trend line. A break either way from the tight consolidation will indicate whether the index will rally back within the range or finally get a major downside break of the long term lower line.
Since the consolidation has formed at the lows of the current move, a downside break is the most likely scenario. Therefore, watch for a break at 9,140, as this level could lead to a much further retracement. Otherwise, an upside break from the range at 9,200 could send the index back up toward the 9,360 area of the wide range.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a tight range from 9,140 to 9,200, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch for a break from this range to indicate direction for Monday's Open.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Short this morning at 9,150, but covered the position for a 10 point loss. No other trades were triggered and we are now out of the market. We will watch the consolidation boundaries for Monday's market. Watch 9,135 down, and 9,200 up, with 10 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each mirrored the Dow today, as each pushed lower from the outset followed by the formation of a consolidation. The consolidation boundaries will be our main focus for Monday's Open. *
Summary
The Dow trended lower at the Open, then formed a tight consolidation at the lows, which we will watch carefully for Monday's market. A downside break will indicate a steeper retracement, while an upside break will push the index back into the wide trading range. Watch 9,135 down, and 9,200 up Monday.
Crocodile - 04 Aug 2003 07:40 - 7 of 24
Looks like a weak start for the FTSE with Far East markets down and negative US futures.
little woman
- 04 Aug 2003 09:33
- 8 of 24
ThePlayboy
- 04 Aug 2003 10:46
- 9 of 24
Druid2
- 04 Aug 2003 10:47
- 10 of 24
Druid2
- 04 Aug 2003 10:49
- 11 of 24
ThePlayboy
- 04 Aug 2003 10:52
- 12 of 24
General consensus is down, up and then down later, easy day then:)
Druid2
- 04 Aug 2003 12:05
- 13 of 24
I think that trebblewide was going to set up an e-mail letter covering a few of the "guru's" and sent him my address but haven't heard since - perhaps he has not set it up yet?
little woman
- 04 Aug 2003 12:08
- 14 of 24
ThePlayboy
- 04 Aug 2003 12:11
- 15 of 24
Druid2
- 04 Aug 2003 14:10
- 16 of 24
ThePlayboy
- 04 Aug 2003 14:19
- 17 of 24
Da Bear - 04 Aug 2003 15:42 - 18 of 24
Here's a link to a German site which some may or may not know about which has TA and Ewave from several different quality German contributors. It's especially good for those of you who may follow the Dax, also has lots of NDX and SPX, DOW updates etc. Have been using it for quite a while now and like it, have put the URL through a translator for those who's German isnt up to scratch (lol).
Site will appear in English through this one:
http://babelfish.altavista.com/babelfish/urltrurl?lp=de_en&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wallstreet-online.de%2Fws%2Fnews%2Fnews%2Fmain.php%3Faction%3Dviewautor%26m%3D3.22.3.0.0%26
In German through this one:
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/
For words, which the automatic translator misses, figure out where the word should be broken, put a space there and put in this:
http://translation1.paralink.com/
ThePlayboy
- 04 Aug 2003 16:43
- 19 of 24
R2 4172.4
R1 4136.2
PP 4111.2
S1 4075
S2 4050
Closed below Mon PP after gaining 2.9pts in the auction, close was below weekly pp! Still close in the FIB 4085/4117 trading range after earlier decisive break past daily r1 to 4147.4 high. Dj just above s2 at our close, mohan looking for a rally now with a pos pullback later, 5min Dj buy sig at 9087, Dj really needs to regain the 9150 imho, opportunites for bull and bear, especially today, buying the morning dip and selling the rally,have a good evening!
Crocodile - 04 Aug 2003 18:24 - 20 of 24
It moves down to posting 2 to allow for todays news.
If you click on all mesages it shows you all the news.
Or as Druid kindly said above you can go to www.ftsedow.com
Regards
David
Trawler - 05 Aug 2003 00:20 - 21 of 24
croc, now I'm here, sorry I missed your phone call. Anytime Tuesday will be OK.
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