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News: 14th October

Debenhams reported year profits and current sales in line with forecasts despite the time & costs associated with the bid battle and hot summer weather. Profits were up 9.6 percent to 168.4 million pounds compared with a forecast range of 163-170 million pounds. outperforming rivals Marks & Spencer Group and NextBunzl food packaging to carrier bags, said it expected its year results to be within the range of market estimates. of between 211 million pounds to 214 million pounds.Invensys engineering said its first-half trading was in line with expectations and added that a disposal programme to lower its debts, was also on track. The news will be posted approx 7:35 in the morningBurberry said total revenues for the first half had risen by 17 percent compared to its poor 2002 figures. Revenues rose 16 percent on an underlying basis, calculated at constant exchange rates and excluding Korean acquisitions and retail sales increased 20 percent to 274 million.Bellway housebuilder posted a 35.1 percent surge in year profits to 169.3 million pounds beating estimates of between 155-166 million pounds. They posted a final dividend of 13.8 pence per share, raising the year dividend by 27 percent to 20 pence per share.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States  (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT)
Debenhams (F) PBT 169m exp. Fibernet Group (F) PTL 11m exp. St Ives Group (F) PBT 34.8m exp. Bellway (F), MJ Gleeson (F) GUS,Burberry  H1 Trading Statement 09.30 Sep RPIX y/y 2.8% exp.	Bank of America (Q3), Dow Jones (Q3), Motorola (Q3), Delta(Q3), Intel(Q3), Johnson & Johnson (Q3)	Philips (Q3), SKF (Q3), Synthes Stratec (Q3) 10.00 Oct German ZEW Sentiment 63.0 exp.

David@FTSEDOW.com     www.FTSEDOW.com

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tue ftse pp

r2 4397.1
r1 4379.1
pp 4344.9
s1 4327.5
s2 4292.1

Close was above Mon R2 after gaining 2.3 pts in the auction, close on the ftse was still above my 60 min and long term sig lines so still in bull mode!



Updated 10/13 for Tuesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 10/14
UP Above 9,850
DN Below 9,650

Uptrending
Dow continues higher within uptrend.

From prior commentary, "...The Dow continues to trend slowly higher above a clear lower trend line...further upside will likely be seen, especially if the Dow can break and hold above 9,700, sparking an upside reversal off the lower trend line..."
The Dow opened the session strongly this morning, rallying sharply the first hour of trading en route to a 90 point gain for the session, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index held on to its gains throughout the session and continues to trend higher above the clear lower trend line that has formed over the course of the last week and a half.

As we mentioned Friday, the Dow will likely continue to trend higher above this line in the medium term. However, once a break of the line occurs, rest assurred the index will likely experience a steep selloff. Look for a downside break through 9,700 to trigger such a move. Otherwise, further upside within the channel is likely.

Looking at the Daily Chart shows that the index is right at the upper boundary of the wide channel that has formed over the course of the last four months - precisely at 9,800. Therefore, the 9,800 level is the key level to watch in this timeframe, as this level could ultimately push the index back down within the channel. A downside reversal off the upper boundary of the channel could lead to a steep sell-off.

So, our stance at this point is to tighten up stops under the run, and look to enter Short quickly once the stop is hit. We expect the stop we have placed, at 9,650, to be hit tomorrow. If that happens, we have good potential for a retracement within the channel.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day right at short term resistance at 9,764, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Use this level as a fulcrum for tomorrow's Open; Long above and Short below.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still Long the Dow from 9,381 and will hold stops at 9,650 to lock in 269 points of profit on the current trade. We will add to Longs above 9,850, and will look to Short below 9,650, with 10 point stops on any new positions.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ gapped up this morning, while the S&P rallied in the first hour of trading. Each continue to trend higher within their respective uptrends. Look for similar behavior until the lower boundary of the uptrend is crossed. *

Summary

The Dow rallied at the Open today, making for another move higher within the current uptrend. Look for the index to continue trending higher until a downside break from the major lower trend line occurs. A break below 9,700 could initiate a sharp decline in this index


stockcharts

10/13: Still no clear ending pattern here on the dow, but continued divergence with price on the RSI and PPO.
Marginal new high says we are not done yet given the less than impulsive looking decline from the early pop up.
So, aggressive long with a stop at 9650 or so, or stand aside and wait for something clear to trade from.
Still an ugly looking advance that is more consistent with an ending diagonal than part of a larger pattern up.
If this is a wave 3 of an extension up we need to rally like the move up from 9200-9600 from here.
Sideways/sloppy action is a warning that something else is going on..

Morning all

Morning all,

Long LLOY & VOD
Short HBOS & ANL

Not the most inspiring deals, but not around today so just aiming for a small profit

I really must go to work! Short BB.

Wondering if anybody has any suggestions for best time frames and associated charts / indicators for someone who is unable to constantly monitor intra-day price movements. Interested initially in FTSE_100 and DJIA spread bets / CFD.

Be very grateful for any pointers at good sites and TA stuff.
In advance, thank you.

Gwenalt
By far the most important are the longer term time frames. Especially 1 year and 3 year. Also its important to draw your support and resistance through the main trading points within the channel and not the spikes.
Chart pacakages in which you can draw your own trend lines can are excellent. Hope AM have this facilty shortly,

croc-could u post ur 2day chart as a comparison to see where you,ve drawn those trendlines thx!

Again the previous days resistance is carried forward to the new day.

Croc-they are sup-res lines rather than trendlines:) I have 4355 as the lower trendline of the upwards move on the 2 day! i,m bearish below

Looks a bit like the Gateshead angel of the north ..