Futures @ 7:30am 16th Oct

FTSE -6

DAX -10

DOW -12

S&P -0.5

Nasdaq -3.5

				S&P Futures
DAX	Nikkei +125		Hang Seng-13

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In the U.S. Big IBM sales grew 9%, below Wall Street forecasts, while earnings rose 5%. But despite a strong earnings report and forecast from Intel the major indexes were unable to sustain the opening surge as some felt stocks had risen far enough. WH Smith recently said sales had been flat in recent weeks as it announced a drop in year profits.to 102 million pounds compared with analysts' downgraded forecasts of 100-104 million pounds following a year-end profit warning. In the six weeks to October 11sales at the main store chain were flat in "extremely testing" conditions Morning news will be posted at approx 7:35 N. Brown Group home shopping company through catalogues posted a 7.4-percent fall in first-half profits as its core market remained challenging, although it added it saw signs of recovery. Profits were 25.1 million pounds down from 27.1 million pounds in the year-ago period. Prudential reported a 10 percent fall in insurance sales in the first nine months but said it saw positive trends emerging. Group insurance sales were 1.2 billion pounds in line with analysts' consensus estimate of 1.224 billion pounds. Wolfson Microelectronics WLF_w said it will have a market value of 214 million pounds when its shares start trading on the London Stock Exchange

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States  (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT)
Mouchel Parkman (F), N Brown Group (I), WH Smith (F) Prudential Q3 Group Sales 11.00 BCC Quarterly Economic Survey	eBay (Q3), Honeywell (Q3), MBNA (Q3), Office Depot (Q3), Sears Roebuck (Q3), Sun Micro (Q3), Ford (Q3), Hershey Foods (Q3), Mattel (Q3), 13.30 Sep CPI m/m 0.2% exp. 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 11/110) 385k exp. 13.30 Aug Business Inventories 0.1% 14.45 Sep Industrial Production 0.4% exp. 14.15 Sep Capacity Utilization 74.8% exp. 17.00 Oct Philly Fed 16.0 exp. 18.00 Oct NAHB Housing Market Index 67.0 exp.	Danone (Q3), Gucci (Q2), Nokia (Q3), Roche (Q3), SAP (Q3), Thales (Q3), Printemps (Q3) 11.00 Sep CPI y/y

David@FTSEDOW.com     www.FTSEDOW.com

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Updated 10/15 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 10/16
UP Above 9,850
DN Below 9,750

Still Trending
Dow pulls back slightly, still holding above key lower trend line.

From prior commentary, "...The index has held up quite well without any major pull-backs throughout the upmove. We expect this behavior to continue until the lower boundary of the uptrend is crossed..."
The Dow popped up this morning, but eventually filled the gap en route to a slow downtrend the remainder of the session, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. However, the index only lost 10 points on the day and continues to trade above the major lower trend line, seen in both the 15 and 60 Minute Charts.

The Dow pulled back precisely to the lower trend line today and rallied off it to the Close, further defining this 'line in the sand' or 'fulcrum' level. As we continue to mention, the index will likely continue to trend slowly higher until the key trend line is crossed. A downside break of the line at 9,750 will likely spark a swift and sharp decline in the index. Watch it closely.

Also, looking at the Daily Chat shows that the index continues to linger near the upper boundary of the major upward-sloping trading range. If the index cannot hold above 9,800, look for the Dow to make a move back down within the range.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line across the highs of today's downtrend, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. The index ended the day reversing down off the upper line, which implies weakness tomorrow morning. Look for continued weakness if the market crosses below 9,810.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still Long the Dow from 9,381 and will continue to hold stops at 9,750, locking in 369 points of profit on the current move. Tomorrow, we will add to Longs above 9,850, and will look to Short below 9,750, with 10 point stops on any new positions.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each popped and dropped today, leading to a day-long downtrend throughout the session. Each index continues to hold above their respective lower trend lines, which we will watch carefully. *

Summary

The Dow pulled back to the major lower trend line, but continues to trade within the overall uptrend. Look for the uptrend to continue until the lower trend line is crossed at 9,750. Such a break would indicate a likely sharp decline.




THU FTSE PP

R2 4425
r1 4397
pp 4365.5
s1 4337.3
s2 4305.8

Ftse closed above Wed r1 after gaining 3pts in the auction (which recently imho has given good signs to next days direction), however moves are more news based atm, Fed beige book tonight aswell! Still no long term Ftse/dow sell signal, still watching for uptrend to be broken at 9750 and a close sub 9700 as first signs! DJsignalwatch very good imho atm, no bias

Thanks TP, morning all

Smiths results terrible - though a lot of it in the price maybe? Good yield and cash generation though?

brian, agree with you not good at all but after the ptofit warning perhaps a sense of relief?

Closed a small Lloyds long from yetersday -8 but just took 10 from a PRU short in the auction.

Morning all,

I just realised that I actually undestood 95% of playboys post. Todays r1 is 1 point below yesterdays r2. It hit it yesterday and went back down, will it do the same today?

Before I forget Congrats Druid2. No1 again in the FTSE co, so today you get to bask in the glory!

I notice yesterday you were asking about Eurotunnel. I must admit I find the news from France quite disturbing. If it's not over I can see eurotunnel going as low as 40p, but if it is it could go back up. The majority of the deals going through seem to be small investers so I'm waiting to see what the big boys are doing for deciding to plunge in or not.

Little women-I only understood 50% maybe you could help me out;0)

Very funny playboy. Does this mean that you just copy the whole thing from someone else and don't contribute anything to it? (:-))

lol :-)

PRU pivotal around 460

LW:the PP section myself and other is DJsignalwatch, u can sign up to have them email u the report every morning and its FREE, i like it due to no real bias, just clear and concise levels, throw in your indicators, switch off the emotion and sit back!

Buy Bots switched on at the PRU 460

it's Ok playboy, I prefer to read your version - so keep it comming

I'm off out for the rest of the day now, but am looking forward to see what happens to the chart you posted croc by the end of the day, when I get back. (I presume it'll update as the day goes on?)

Just to let everyone know - Autonomy (AU.) is now available on Level2 again.
Felix

Good morning here :-) Thanks PRU!

Thats really good croc - LOL

little woman - Noticed just now that I've slipped back to 5th but you are consistent at No. 3 again. Regarding Eurotunnel - I am a holder since the start and used my concession last week to go to France for 2. (Allowed to go twice a year). Makes up for not getting a divy - yet!!?? Tempted to add to my holding but holding back for a lower price. Also hold 100 MyTravel shares (for 10% discount on holidays) bought for 328p !! and have been tempted to add here as well. Price did go to about 500p AFTER I purchased - should have sold then and re purchased now at 16p !!

Ahhhhh, but it would be nicer to be no 1! Being consistent is no consolation prize. (It was once, but after a while it loses its attractions!)

I have some eurotunnel, but in a nominee account so no perks. (I don't even get to vote!)I notice the price went up yesterday afternoon, and today. But will it continue up or go back down? Hindsight is such a wonderful thing........