Bt Teletext

WILL US LEAD RATE RISE CHARGE?
A close call at the Bank of England over this month's voting on interest rates has shortened odds that the UK will take the lead in raising them.

But before the next meeting of the monetary policy committee on November 5-6 comes this Tuesday's decision on US rates by the Federal Reserve.

The Fed lowered rates from 1.25% to a new 45-year low of 1% in late June and the economy has slowly picked up speed. But if, as seems likely, it opts to keep rates on hold this month, chances are the next change will be in 2004.

Despite Treasury Secretary John Snow's comments that US rates will eventually rise, many see a rise now as premature.

Unlike the Bank of England monetary policy committee's monthly meetings, the Fed only votes on rates eight times a year. One more meeting remains for this year, scheduled for December 9.

With the prospect of dearer mortgages and debt repayments suddenly more imminent than many of us had expected, British consumers may feel less optimistic.

The GfK consumer confidence index rose steadily after the Iraq war came to an apparently quick conclusion but slipped in August and was flat a month later.

The October measure, out on Thursday, may show many of us have become more downbeat about our financial outlook.

Path to Growth trails off

Consumer products giant Unilever has already dished up the bad news ahead of Wednesday's third-quarter figures.

The group's five-year Path to Growth strategy, unveiled in February 2000, which focuses on 400 leading brands has wandered off course as they struggle to meet 3% growth, against a 5%-6% target.

While brands such as Magnum ice cream still sell well, others such as the SlimFast range have dented performance.

City analysts expected hotels, pubs and leisure group Whitbread to snap up the 140-strong Premier Lodge business which Scottish & Newcastle sold last month.

But new owner, consortium Spirit Group has poured cold water on reports that it plans to hand over the chain.

The news may be a minor disappointment only for Whitbread, which last month was upbeat on recent sales growth ahead of Tuesday's first-half figures.

Peacock has reason to preen

Peacock Group may steer clear of the designer label end of the market, but should be entitled to fan its feathers based on Tuesday's first-half results.

The bargain fashion retailer began its year with a 10.8% jump in like-for-like sales, and analysts see pre-tax profits leaping from 3.3m in 2002 to 11.1m.

The group, also owner of the Bon Marche chain, sold out of summer ranges after a revamp and expects a good Christmas.

Chemicals giant ICI's third quarter figures on Thursday may take second place to new chief executive John McAdam's targets for the group.

BP reports for the same period Tuesday, with rival Royal Dutch/Shell having disappointed the market despite a 16% rise in earnings.

Reuters updates the market on Monday. The City is keen for signs the business information firm has turned the corner.

MONDAY October 27

Interims: Alteriam, Reuters (Q3).

Index of distribution (Aug).

TUESDAY October 28

Finals: Interregnum, Leeds United.

Interims: BAT (Q3), Bookham Technology (Q3), BP (Q3), Bristol & West Investments, Maelor, Peacock Group, Westbury, Whitbread.

Trading update: WPP Group (Q3).

US interest rate decision.

WEDNESDAY October 29

Interims: Celsis International, Unilever (Q3).

Mortgage lending (Sep).

THURSDAY October 30

Interims: Chloride Group, First Property Group, ICI (Q3), Jennings Brothers.

Consumer confidence index (Oct).

FRIDAY October 31

Interims: Ambient.

Nationwide house price index (Oct).