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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 27th October (RTR)     

Crocodile - 26 Oct 2003 12:04

Premarket Futures 27th Oct FTSE +12 DAX +25 DOW +8 S&P -0.9 Nasdaq -1

1 Day 2 Day 5 Day - UK News

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FTSE 250

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FTSE Small Cap

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FTSE TechMark

1 Day 2 Day 5 Day  Futures  US News

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Nasdaq 100

[Chart]

S&P 500

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S&P Futures

DAX / CAC    Europe News

Nikkei +118   Hang Seng -4.6  Asia News

[Chart]

10 Year Bond

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UK/US charts have 1,2 or 5 day views. and now FT NEWS & Price link to UK, US & Asian markets. The Dax/CAC and Nikkei/Hang Seng are now switchable
News: Sorry Your browser is not java capable  

Carlton insists its merger with Granada is still on despite the recent forcing out of Carlton founder Michael Green as chairman of the merged firm

Canary Wharf: may consider other ways of boosting shareholder returns if it does not receive an acceptable bidAMEC said its joint venture with U.S. engineering firm Fluor was bidding for an Iraqi water and power contract worth up to $1.5 billion.Reuters reported a 10.9 percent fall in core subscription revenues , a touch better than market estimates and its own forecasts.Cadbury said by 2007 it was looking to cut costs by 400 million pounds a year and jobs by 10 percent. They also said trading was more or less in line with expectations. Thet are getting rid of 5500 jobs and closing some factories. It says it hoped to save 400 million pounds a year by 2007 from the plan, which will cost 900 million over the period.

ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
usf.gif United States (GMT)
euro.gif Europe & World (GMT

 Reuters (Q3) PBT 771-779 exp.Cadbury Schweppes (Investor presentation) Chorion Plc Consolidation Ex date

09:30 Aug index of distribution 3m, 0.8% prev.

American Express, Proctor & Gamble, Intl Paper

15:00 Sep home sales 6.3m exp. 15:00 Sep new homes 1128k exp.

Schering, Schwarz Pharma, Statoil

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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Crocodile - 26 Oct 2003 12:04 - 2 of 12

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United Kingdom Calendar  27th - 31st Oct

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United States  (GMT)

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Europe & World (GMT)

 Reuters (Q3) PBT 771-779 exp.Cadbury Schweppes (Investor presentation) Chorion Plc Consolidation Ex date

09:30 Aug index of distribution 3m, 0.8% prev.

American Express, Proctor & Gamble, Intl Paper

15:00 Sep home sales 6.3m exp. 15:00 Sep new homes 1128k exp.

Schering, Schwarz Pharma, Statoil

BP (Q3) PBT $3bn exp. British American Tobacco (Q3) PBT 689m exp.

Whitbread (H1) PBT 120-125m exp. Friends Provident (Q3), Westbury (H1), WPP (Q3)

Lockheed Martin, King Pharm., Verizon

13:30 Sep durable goods 1.0% exp. 15:00 Oct consumer confidence 79.1 exp. 19:15 Fed rate announcement 1.0% exp.

Air Liquide, Saint Gobain, Interbrew, Merck

09:00 German Oct Ifo Index 91.5 exp. 09:00 EU Sep M3 y/y 8.4% prev.

GUnilever (Q3) 1,200m exp. BHP Billiton (Q1) PBT $606m exp.Safeway (Trading), Abbey National (Trading)

Scottish & Newcastle (EGM) to approve its 2.5bn sale of its pubs.

09.30 Sep net consumer credit 1.68 prev.

 

Halliburton, Amerada Hess, Conoco Phillips, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, Chubb,

France Telecom, Volkswagen, TeliaSonera

Ex Dividend: Air Partner Plc (9.1), Alexon Group Plc (2.33), Ashtenne Holdings Plc (3.8), Balfour Beatty Plc (2.6), Basepoint PLC (0.5), British Polythene Industries (7), Christie Group Plc (1), Collins and Hayes Group PLC (1), Dechra Pharmaceuticals Plc (2.75), Dicom Group Plc (3.22), GlaxoSmithKline plc (9), ICM Computer Group Plc (2.15), Invox PLC (16), James Halstead Plc (10), Linx Printing Technologies (6.1), Lookers Plc (3.3), Maiden Group Plc (2), Manganese Bronze Hldgs Plc (2), Mcbride Plc (2.1), Novar Plc (0.03625), Proactive Sports Group Plc (0.065), Reed Health Group PLC (1.62), RMC Group Plc (9.4), Senior Plc (0.65), Sirdar Plc (4), Sygen International PLC (0.55), Thorntons Plc (4.85), Wetherspoon (J.D.) Plc (2.33), William Sinclair Holdings PLC (4.5)

ICI (Q3) PBT 96m exp. St James Place (Q3), Ashanti Goldfields (Q3)10:30 Oct GfK survey 3.0 prev.

Comcast, Duke Energy, Exxon Mobil,

13:30 Q3 Employment costs 0.9% exp. 13:30 Initial jobless claims 385k exp. 13:30 Q3 personal consumption 6.4% exp. 15:00 Sep Chicago Fed 19:00 FOMC minutes

Europe: Ericsson, Deutsche Bank, Alcatel, Aventis

Autonomy (Q3)BHP Billiton (AGM)

ChevronTexaco, JDS Uniphase, CIGNA

13:30 Sep consumer spending 0.1% exp. 13:30 Sep personal income 0.2% exp. 14:00 Oct NAPM-NY 14:45 Oct final Michigan sentiment 89.6 exp. 15:00 Oct Chicago PMI 55.0 exp.

Metro, Fiat

11:00 EU Oct business climate 0.42 prev. 11:00 EU Oct business sentimen-9.0 prev. 11:00 EU Oct consumer sentiment 17.0 prev. 11:00 EU Oct economic sentiment 95.4 prev. 11:00 EU Oct flash HICP

 

Provisional Calendar For The Following Week   3rd - 7th Nov

ebookers (Q3), Ryanair (I), Thus Group (I)

Pz Cussons (AGM)

Manufacturing sector PMI (09:30)

CBI monthly distributive trades (11:00)

15:00 Construction Spending 15:00 ISM Index 17:00 Auto Sales 17:00 Truck Sales  

Carphone Warehouse (I), Kewill Systems (I) Marks & Spencer (I), Scottish Power (Q2) Tyco International (Q4), Minorplanet (F)Henderson Euro Trust (AGM), McBride (AGM) A&J Mucklow (AGM), Redrow (AGM), Clinton Cards (EGM)

24th Oil and Money Conference

 

 

AVEVA Group (I) Big Yellow Group (I), Electrocomponents (I) FirstGroup (I), MFI Furniture (I), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (Q3) Pilkington (I), Shire Pharmaceuticals (Q3), Volex (I), Yates (I), Fenner (F)Goodwin (AGM), Redrow (AGM), Sygen International (AGM) JP Morgan Fleming Mid (AGM)

Sept industrial/manufacturing (0930 GMT) CBI Small and medium enterprises survey (1100 GMT) NIESR GDP estimate (1300 GMT)

Bank of England MPC meeting

15:00 AM EST Factory Orders 15:00 AM EST ISM Services

 

Ex Dividend: AGA Foodservice Group (2.2), Abbot Group (1.4), Collins Stewart Tullett (2.5), DFS Furniture Company (17.0), Intertek Group (2.9), Laird Group (3.0), Marshalls (3.65), Matalan (2.7), St Ives (12.15), Taylor Nelson Sofres (0.95), William Hill (3.5)

BAA (I), Big Food Group (I) Boots Group (I), London Stock Exchange (I) Man Group (I), Scottish & Southern Energy (I), Signet (Q3), Sondex (I), Synergy Healthcare (I), Tate & Lyle (I), Telewest Communications (Q3) Punch Taverns (F), Sun Alliance Insurance (Q3)FW Thorpe (AGM), West Bromwich Albion (AGM)BoE interest rate decision (12:00) UK BRC shop price index

13:30 Initial Claims 13:30 Productivity-Prel

 

QXL Ricardo (I), BT Group (Tentative) (Q2) Shire Pharmaceuticals (Tentative) (Q3)Invox (AGM), Pochin's (AGM) Quayle Munro (AGM), Thomas Walker (AGM)Q3 insolvency statistics (09:30)

13:30 Average Workweek 13:30 Hourly Earnings 13:30 Nonfarm Payrolls 13:30 Unemployment Rate 15:00 Wholesale Inventories 20:00 Consumer Credit

 

 

Trading Thoughts & Week Ahead  -  Sunday 26th Oct

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We have a quieter week ahead with the main news coming from BP, Reuters, Unilever and ICI .MondayReuters reports Q3 figures which are likely to show a steep fall in quarterly revenues. Back in July they reckoned full-year sales would be down around 11% but they are desperately trying to cut costs to offset falling revenues. Its electronic brokerage subsidiary Instinet previously reported its first quarterly profit in two years after reducing overheads.Hometrack releases data on the latest house price figures on Monday.TuesdayBP reporting Q3 will have investors nervous after disappointing profits from rival Shell last week. Analysts still expect a 34% rise in pre-tax profits to about 1.81bn with production slightly ahead of last year. However currency movements and refinery downtime are likely to affect figures.Whitbread are expected to have a 5.6% rise in interims to 132m when it reports. The group is expected to confirm that its Beefeater, David Lloyd Leisure and Brewers Fayre performed well to offset a difficult time for the group's Marriott and Travel Inn hotel chains. There is a question whether they plan to acquire the Premier Lodges recently sold by Scottish & Newcastle. British American Tobacco is expected to post a small fall in Q3 to around 689m due to a reduction in US sales. This could possibly be offset by growth in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. They will also add figures from ETI, Italy's former state owned tobacco group which BAT bought over the summer.Bookham Technology also reports Q3 results which are expected to come in at around 30m. It has been expanding its non-telecom business which it hopes to contribute more than 20% of its business by this time next year. For the time being the Telecoms part of the company is expected to have mixed results. Peacock Group reports interims after recently saying that trading at both its Peacock and Bon Marche chain with a sales growth of over 8% and improved margins. Westbury house builder said in September that there were encouraging signs of a recovery in the South East but forecasts may now be influenced by the fears that the Bank of England may raise interest rates. In the US the FED meets with the market awaiting news on Interest rates and an assessment of the economy. No change in rates are expected at the moment.WednesdaySafeway is expected to report a slight improvement in sales but the market is going to be more interested in news on the takeover by William Morrison.Unilever recent profits warning will leave the market looking for a positive outlook when it unveils third quarter figures. Despite the slowdown they should still show a growth in profits to 1.2bn from 1.1bn despite its sales of SlimFast being hit by alternative diet plans. Other brands, such as Dove and Birds Eye are expected to have improved. BHP Billiton will give a further insight into conditions in the mining industry.ThursdayICI reports third-quarter results with profits around 96m expected down by more than a quarter on last year. There should be an improvement on its National Starch business but Quest's performance could prove to be a problem. Future profitability is expected to be improved by removing another 1400 jobs, reducing capital spending and a further disposal of assets. As nothing but excellent results lead to a rise in share price at the moment this could be a faller.GfK UK Consumer Confidence report is published on Thursday.

Thoughts

Last week I posted that the rally may have gone too far and too fast and we could have a test of its resistance point during the week. Looking at the chart above it is interesting to see that the 1 year uptrend has now split into 2 distinct 6 month channels. The FTSE testing support at this level is at a crucial point with any further falls suggesting a new floor of 4000 and a possible return to the  3 year downtrend. If so we could be looking at a fairly quick 20% fall on the markets with the possibility of a 'black' day.

My own view is that we may have another rally on the markets but is definitely running out of steam with most good results at the moment leading to a fall in share price.

As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on the week ahead!  David (Crocodile) David@SnappyTrader.com  www.SnappyTrader.com

All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.

 

Crocodile - 26 Oct 2003 12:05 - 3 of 12

Sunday News Headlines 26th October

Another Russian billionaire could take control of a Premiership football team, just months after Chelsea was brought by Roman Abramovich.The Independent on Sunday said Vladmir Potanin, an oil and mining magnate, is planning to buy into London rivals Arsenal. - Sky and Independant

Cadbury Schweppes says it will outline a four-year plan for cutting costs and driving growth next week after admitting its cost base is "out of line". Reuters Russia's richest man arrested, ReutersWal-Mart Stores says it will review the status of its 1.1 million U.S. employees and fire any illegal immigrants on the payroll if U.S. law requires it. Canary Wharf will refinance its property portfolio to raise at least 1 billion pounds to return to shareholders if it receives no acceptable bids Police have snatched Russia's richest man, YUKOS oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, from his jet in Siberia and have hauled him before a Moscow court, charging him with massive fraud and tax evasion. An interest rate rise is looking nearer as the latest figures on the British economy show continuing growth in sales. The economy grew 0.6% in the third quarter of the year, as expected.

SUNDAY TIMES Chelsfield offers funds a stake in buyout Quintain Estate FirstGroup vows to win train deal Wembley to kick off 1bn development AstraZeneca Lancet hit in drugs row BP, Shell Scottish business digest Manchester United How Magnier raced to his fortune Carlton Now City assassin knifes Allen Gresham consortium wins backing of UK bank British Airways Cassani throws a book at men who failed Go British Airways, BAA Ditch Stansted, airline chiefs tell Darling Granada Now City assassin knifes Allen Eircom staff to be offered 120,000 golden goodbye Tesco Scottish business digest

Sharewatch: Glaxo Smith Kline Paramount Directors' Deals: Restaurant boss serves up a share sale Secrets of the shareholder coup that ousted Carlton's Green Carlton, Granad How ITV's big drama unfolded Bank of Ireland Sharewatch: Airlines still grounded but get ready for take-off Granada, Carlton Its only a matter of time before Allen goes Profile: John Magnie rManchester United Judgment Day: RMC SMG Sharewatch: Prime time for TV British Airways : Airlines still grounded but get ready for take-off

Earl prepares to go as her Debenhams dream dies Thousands of Cadbury jobs to go Scotland: Bad views on Indigovision

SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Murdoch heads BSkyB shortlist of two Leeds suffers worst annual loss Canary Wharf plans to raise 1bn Carlton, Granada Allen survived 'by pure chance' Centrica in fresh attack on BT

Granada, Carlton Assassination St Granada, Carlton Bloodlust after Bolton's clean kill BSkyB City comment: Leighton in the wings Granada, Carlton Revolution, what revolution?

SHARES in Amec, the diversified engineering and services group, have fallen from 288p to 260p over the past two months. The slide follows a warning in August that lower capital spending by its biggest clients had depressed profits and recently by Jarvis's decision to pull out of rail maintenance. Sentiment in the sector was further hit last week by Network Rail's decision to take the work in-house. But the impact on Amec of that move is likely to be small. Buy. THE value of London-listed miners that are active in Russia has soared over the past year driven by the rising price of gold and a growing view that the country is an attractive place to invest in natural resources. This week a prospectus* is to be published on Trans-Siberian Gold which is due to float on the Alternative Investment Market. It is expected to debut at about 200p. Mining companies are risky but this one could be worth a look.

OBSERVER Chorion hopes Noddy toy deal will ring the right bells Capital pain as Heart attacks Anglo American Winnie joins in lawsuit battle Reuters in rival's sights as revenue slumps Diageo whisky plan turns sour Barclays Barrett's head could yet roll Granada, Carlton Allen has until July to fix ITV BSkyB rebels in fresh attack on execs Leeds in record football loss for second year Amec bids for 1.5bn Iraq contract

Granada, Carlton City scores direct hit on Green BT seeks fresh supply of oxygen Atkins diet craze eats into Unilever profits Telewest Do the cable firms have enough fibre? Carlton, Granada Shareholders doing the dirty work Greene King Brewing up taste for success BT Broadband: a new world of riches Reuters hits fast forward to catch up with the 'geeks'

SUNDAY MAIL 10m cash call by the City elite, Top four heading for AIM Leeds move to top of loss league, Soccer club could be 50m in red Eurolife losers counting the cost, Lavish parties and strip club champers Saga plugs 31m pensions gap, Group ups contributions to 15% Hutchings gears up for comeback, Eye on Bodycote takeover bid 10m float for 'shops in the sky', Opening doors to air travellers

Leapfrog falls flat in a 'difficult year', Decision on future this year Branson phone deal to unlock 1.5bn, Control could follow German 'peace' BA. Souvenir sales power Concorde profit, Cufflinks, keyrings add up to 25m Wolseley bosses take pay cuts Record profits at Plumb Center firm

Carlton is considering pulling out of the planned 4.5bn merger with fellow TV giant Granada after the dramatic coup against its boss, Michael Green.

Home loan rates on the way up Buyers may face extra 88 a month

INDEPENDENT  Granada, Carlton Top ITV job touted two weeks ago BAT defies court over 'confidential' files Brokers who floated Collins Stewart make surprise exit

As clocks go back, BP's hour has come BP The Top Brass: The 10 leading figures in the pharmaceutical industry

Football - Leeds tops the losers' league to the tune of 80m Celltech, GlaxoSmithKline The 10 leading figures in the pharma industry AZN, Powderject The 10 leading figures in the pharma industry  

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY  Arriva aims to maximise customer benefits Granada Greg Dyke tipped for top job at merged ITV Airline apoplexy as Ryanair boss tells Cassani where to Go Investors keen to see if ICI is close to completing Quest for improvement Forth Ports snub leaves shipping body all at sea Marks & Spencer Group Buyers eye up Safeway pickings Granada, Carlton chief in spotlight after ousting of Carlton boss  

John Wood Group urges PM to reject EU's draft energy policy RBS forecasts global growth to soar in 2004 Heat turned up on Kingston Comms sale Carlton Popularity supports First choice Pubmaster looks to flotation after Punch takeover offer falls well short of 'fair value' BP pumps up the profits but dividend may be hit by weak dollar

SUNDAY EXPRESS SHARES in Punch Taverns have doubled from their lowest level but there is still value to be had. It floated last May and had a torrid time trying to explain its business model to the City, but those concerns have been addressed and and it should close the gap on its rival Enterprise Inns. Buy at 332p. THINGS could be looking up for news and data provider Reuters. Most of its revenues come from City banks and newspapers, two sectors that have been in the doldrums for years. But business is beginning to pick up for both sectors and that should help Reuters recover. Buy at 234.5p. NO LONGER just a maker of luxury cookers, Aga Foodservice is now a diversified food equipment business that is well positioned for growth at home and overseas. Yet the group's share price has underperformed the market and the engineering sector in the past year. Buy at 235p.

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy Northern Rock (NRK) at 744p, Rugby Estates (RES) at 258p, GB Group (GBG) at 19.5p, Bizspace (BIZ) at 37p, Gibbs & Dandy (GDYO) at 305p. Sell Trinity Mirror (TNI) at 558p.Tip Updates: Buy Northern Recruitment (NRG), Sage (SGE) high enough, Alliance Unichem (AUN) fairly priced.Company News: Sell WH Smith Group (SMWH).

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy DDD Group (DDD) at 44.5p, Mayflower Corporation (MFW) at 34.5p, Fortune Oil (FTO) at 2.35p, BioProgress (BPRG) at 54.5p, Armour Group (AMR) at 48.5p. Updates: Sell Toad Group (TOA), Zoo Digital (ZOO) (or hold), Croda International (CRDA), Newcastle United (NCU). Interactive TV Shares to Watch: Buy BSkyB (BSY), YooMedia (YOO), Music Choice Europe (MUS), Telewest (TWT), Emap (EMA).

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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little woman - 26 Oct 2003 22:32 - 4 of 12

Evening all,

As alway a very informative thread. I'm trying to stay out of equities, but finding it very difficult. Something tells me to hold off - but the temptation can be hard............

tyketto - 27 Oct 2003 00:44 - 5 of 12

little woman, as it always is.
Robert Cole in the Times,with the help of Hemscott search engine.
Six co's of at least 4% prospective div yield,
expected to increase earnings by at least 10% in the next year,
interest payments covered at least X4 by earnings,
Div cover X2 by earning and cashflow.
Savilles(property) Brandon Hire(tools)Devro(sausage skins)
Holidaybreak(campsites)James Cropper(paper)Davis Support(serv)
Personally I'm going to track the above,but like yourself, just
clearng those that come into profit.Happy to hold the rest till
the next bounce(hate to have my capital eroded) We'll probably
have to wait for the US Pres election before we get some clear
direction.
mac

ThePlayboy - 27 Oct 2003 07:13 - 6 of 12

MON FTSE PP

R2 4265.5
R1 4252.1
PP 4235.5
S1 4222.4
S2 4205.8

Close was below Fri PP after loosing .1 in a quiet auction!

WEEEKLY FTSE PP

R2 4441.6
R1 4340
PP 4277
S1 4175
S2 4111.6

Close was below the weekly PP!

DOW FIBS

61.8% 9694
50% 9656
38.2% 9619

If the dow can show some signs of strength tonight (atm 9536) will be looking for some short term gains next week with the ftse testing at least the weekly pp, this ties in with the 4238/275 FIB range it is in, 3yr downtrend also comes in around 4225 level, looking a little oversold atm! Dow has a few gaps to close circa 9650/9700 aswell, cannot see the ftse touching 4300 for a while, if it so 4310/30 max, will be looking to sell the rallies next week! IMHO


Updated 10/24 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 10/27
UP Above 9,600
DN Below 9,500

Late-Day Rally
Dow holds at 9,500, then rallies to the Close.

From prior commentary, "...The fact that the consolidation has formed at the lows of the recent decline hints at further weakness in the medium term...A break below 9,550 will likely spark another sharp push lower..."
The Dow got the break below 9,550 this morning and trended lower throughout most of the session, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. However, despite being down by as much as 115 points, the index managed rallied sharply to the Close to ultimately end the day lower by just 31 points.

Since the Dow ended the day with such a sharp rally, we could see the strength spill over to Monday's trading. An upside break through the upper trend line at 9,600, seen in the 15 Minute Chart, could spark an extended move higher due to current strength.

However, the index continues to trade within a bearish expanding range, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. A downside break usually occurs from such a pattern, so we will remain cautious until a solid break from the range is seen. A downside break through the bottom of the range at 9,500 will likely lead to another decline.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day right at the day's resistance level of 9,583, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Use this level as a fulcrum for Monday's Open; Short below and Long above.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still the Short the Dow from 9,641 and will move stops down to 9,600 for Monday's market. We will stay Short below 9,500 and will look to enter Longs above 9,600 Monday, with 10 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ gapped down once again today, but ended the session with a solid rally, as did the S&P. Each index continues to trade within a tight sloping channel, which we will focus on Monday. *

Summary

The Dow ended the day with a sharp rally today despite losing over 100 points earlier in the session. An upside break through 9,600 Monday could extend the late-day rally, while a break below 9,500 will indicate further weakness.


Crocodile - 27 Oct 2003 08:02 - 7 of 12

Morning all
Thanks TP

Druid2 - 27 Oct 2003 08:26 - 8 of 12

Morning all - tks Croc & TP.
tyketto - will watch those shares mentioned - tks.

little woman - 27 Oct 2003 09:43 - 9 of 12

I've given up - but I'm trading really short term for really small profits - so hopefully by the end of the day I'm mostly cash again.....

stockbunny - 27 Oct 2003 16:24 - 10 of 12

See RTR have gone up nicely on the back of not-so-great news and ALN has done pretty much the opposite - the numbers were actually not that bad but the added comments, updates in future progress seem to have overshadowed that...Seems IMHO like they have shot themselves in the foot!!!

little woman - 27 Oct 2003 16:28 - 11 of 12

mmm I must admit I purchased a few GSK first thing, which are currently breaking even. Tommorrow night they go ex divi so I hope they will go up enough during the day to cash in before ex div. I keep promising myself some for the long term, but as soon as they make 5-10% I cash in...... (and if I get one of the 4 div's as well I'm not complaining.)

Too many shares go up on bad news, and down on good!

little woman - 27 Oct 2003 16:37 - 12 of 12

End of the month coming, have you put in your prediction/guess to the FTSE comp yet?
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