ThePlayboy
- 29 Oct 2003 07:16
- 3 of 7
10/24: 9850 is now a key level on this chart, and any rally cannot breach that level or something else is going on.
What looks like a volume reversal today is what one would expect after a much longer duration decline than what we have here.
It portends at least a near term rally, and biases the count toward what is shown.
Alternate count is that this is wave 1 of the larger iii down, and would be more in line with the overall ending diagonal which says we drop rapidly to 9K from here.
WED FTSE PP
R2 4297
R1 4285
PP 4268
S1 4256
S2 4240
Close was above Tue R1 after gaining 1.7pts in the auction!
Updated 10/28 for Wednesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 10/29
UP Current Trend
DN Below 9,650
Upside Break
Dow breaks consolidation to upside, rallies to the Close.
From prior commentary, "...the index is forming a downward-sloping consolidation at the highs of the current upmove. This pattern is typically bullish and usually results in an upside break...A break here will likely make for another move higher..."
The Dow got the upside break through the top of the bullish consolidation this morning, which sparked a solid push higher throughout the session. The index ended the day at the session highs, ultimately gaining 140 points for the day, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart.
Looking at the Daily Chart, you see that the Dow has once again turned up within the long term upward-sloping channel. We will likely see another wave higher within the channel toward the upper boundary of the range, but we must see the formation of a continuation pattern before such a move occurs.
Look for the Dow to form either a higher low or a consolidation at the high before another push higher is seen. Otherwise, a break of the lower trend line at 9,675, seen in the 15 Minute Chart, will indicate retracement.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the late-day rally, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Watch for continued strength above the trend line unless 9,730 is broken to the downside.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Long this morning at 9,658 and are still in the position. We will continue to hold stops at the entry for tomorrow's market and will look for Shorts below 9,650, with 20 point stops. We will now be using 20 point stops for all new entries for the Dow, due to increased volatility in this market.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ took another gap up this morning and traded steadily higher throughout the day, as did the S&P. Look for the formation of a continuation pattern to indicate further strength tomorrow. *
Summary
The Dow got the upside break from the bullish consolidation today, which led to a sharp climb to the Close. Look for the index to digest the day's gains while a continuation pattern forms tomorrow.
ThePlayboy
- 29 Oct 2003 08:24
- 5 of 7
scharts
10/28: By this count, wave C, and wave (ii) should be complete, or nearly so at today's close.
Now we have a good place to short from, and that is on a breach of 9600 from here, assuming we decline from or near this level.
A break above 9800, and especially 9850 says more bullish things are going on here and another rally up above the 10,100 level is likely (i.e. another wave up the size of the one from 9200-9800).
Make or break time for the bear count here, with the above mentioned 9600 the first sell signal, and a move below 9500 confimation.
zarif
- 29 Oct 2003 14:39
- 7 of 7
Afternoon everybody
Happy hunting for today.
rgds
zarif