Kam-MoneyAM
- 01 Nov 2003 08:59
Exporters will wince, with the pound already at a five-year high against the dollar, but the Bank of England is set to raise interest rates on Thursday.
Its monetary policy committee voted 5-4 to keep the current rate of 3.5% on hold in October, but our propensity for debt has got its members worried.
Any rise would be the first since February 2000 when rates were hiked to 6% and stayed there for a whole year. An era of steadily reducing rates then began, which has lasted for the best part of three years.
But a quarter point hike to 3.75% on Thursday would only reverse the last cut conceded by the Bank of England in July - which, with hindsight, now looks unnecessary.
"The Bank has been trying to warn consumers not too get into too much debt, but now they're going to have to raise rates," says HSBC's John Butler.
Is business ready for a rate rise? The latest CIPS survey on the manufacturing and service sectors, on Monday and Wednesday respectively, will show.
In September, both indices were better than many had expected. Manufacturers are now seeing modest but consistent growth and the jobless total continues at or near its 27-year low.
Meanwhile, the service sector has gone from strength to strength since April.
Harder going at M&S
Some big retail names feature on this week's agenda, with Marks &Spencer's first half report due on Tuesday.
M&S's return to rude health has hit a patch of turbulence of late. The long, hot summer melted sales growth, which slowed to 2.6% and only 0.6% when new store openings were taken out.
Chief executive Roger Holmes is likely to focus on new initatives, such as the &more loyalty card launched last month.
Thursday sees first-half figures from Iceland stores operator Big Food Group, plus health and beauty chain Boots.
After three years of decline, Big Food reported its first turnaround in sales growth last month, although chief Bill Grimsey played down the achievement.
Boots' new management team, which took over in September, has already reported a reasonable summer, even if its own rate of 2.9% was at the lower end of forecasts.
In contrast to Unilever, which has seen growth flag this year, Twinings tea to Ryvita group Associated British Foods has painted a brighter picture.
Full-year figures on Tuesday follow an upgrade two months ago, when ABF said it now expected the first-half's strong performance to keep up in the second.
Its British Sugar arm has been aided by a weaker pound and acquisitions have added Mazola and Ovaltine to its range.
Retirement homes group McCarthy & Stone will look back at a torrid year on Thursday, with founder John McCarthy quitting after his failed takeover bid.
Punch Taverns issues finals the same day. In September, the pub operator unveiled a refinancing plan to free up 250m for more acquisitions.
Also reporting that day is Tate & Lyle, which is set to push up prices after the scorching summer withered crops.
MONDAY November 3
Finals: J Smart (Contractors).
Interims: Ebookers (Q3), Surfcontrol, Thus.
CBI distributive trades survey, CIPS report on manufacturing sector (Oct).
TUESDAY November 4
Finals: Associated British Foods, Minorplanet Systems.
Interims: Carphone Warehouse, Danka Business Systems, Kewill Systems, Marks & Spencer, Scottish Power.
WEDNESDAY November 5
Finals: Fenner, Netb2b2.
Interims: Aveva, Big Yellow Group, Electrocomponents, First Group, Millennium & Copthorne (Q3), Pilkington, Shire Pharmaceuticals (Q3), Volex Group, Yates Group.
Bank of England monetary policy committee meets. Index of production (Sep), UK official reserves (Oct). CBI report on small to medium-sized enterprises, CIPS report on services sector.
THURSDAY November 6
Finals: McCarthy & Stone, Punch Taverns.
Interims: BAA, Big Food Group, Booots, London Stock Exchange, Sondex, Synergy Healthcare, Tate & Lyle, Telewest Communications (Q3).
UK and EU interest rate decisions.
British Retail Consortium shop price index (Oct).
FRIDAY November 7
Interims: QXL Ricardo.
Halifax house price index for October also issued this week - date to be confirmed.
stockbunny
- 01 Nov 2003 13:44
- 2 of 2
I just hope it is not a case of a totally boring week with no real movement until the BOE meet on Thursday - will people trade or sit on
their hands until the rate decision??