Premarket Futures

FTSE +8

DAX +12

DOW -39

S&P -4.5

Nasdaq -7.5

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U.S.stock markets ended near where they started the session, but could do well tomorrow following an after hours quarterly report from Cisco the No. 1 maker of computer network gear which reported better then expected profits up over 76% With US futures being down and large losses in Asia over night the UK futures do look overvalued at +8 Volumes may be light this morning ahead of the BOE rate announcement. Boots revealed an expected dip in half-year profits on Thursday and said second-half gross profit margin at its main chain would fall as it cuts more prices. Profits slipped to 265.9 million pounds down 4.9 percent from last year, before Boots sold the Halfords chain. That was in line with analysts forecasts of 252-273 million pounds for the six months to the end of September. The dividend was raised to 8.8 pence. BAA airports operator said it had a pre-tax profit of 312 million pounds near the top end of analysts' forecasts but this was a fall of 4.3 percent fall for the first 6 months. It continued to forecast four percent growth in passenger traffic for the year to the end of March. MyTravel warning that it expected to report an operating loss for the second half of its financial year and that trading in the UK had been weaker than expected since it had issued an update in August. Big Food Group said that half-year profits more than doubled from a year ago, helped by a turnaround at its Iceland frozen food chain. This ws at the middle of analysts forecasts,Telewest said its third-quarter underlying earnings rose 18 percent and the number of customers increased slightly. Despite this they posted a loss of 119 million pounds. McCarthy & Stone builder of retirement homes reported a forecast-beating 54 percent rise in annual profits on but forecast tougher trading conditions in the current year.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
BAA (I), Big Food Group (I), BG Group Boots Group (I), London Stock Exchange (I) Man Group (I), Scottish & Southern Energy (I), Signet (Q3), Sondex (I), Synergy Healthcare (I), Tate & Lyle (I), Telewest Communications (Q3) Punch Taverns (F), Sun Alliance Insurance (Q3)FW Thorpe (AGM), West Bromwich Albion (AGM) BOE interest rate decision	Sempra Energy Q1, Williams Companies Q3 13:30 Initial Claims 13:30 Productivity-Preliminary	Aegon NL Q3, Aixtron D Q3 Altana D Q3, BMW D Q3 BNP Paribas F Q3, Degussa D Q3 Deutsche Boerse D Q3, EADS D Q3 FJA D Q3, GPC Biotech D Q3 Karstadt Quelle D, ProSieben Sat1 D Q3 Societe Generale F Q3, Vinci F Q3

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11/5: Managed to post a low back below wave 4 here, but not by much.
Today's decline says no ending diagonal.
The pattern down is still not clearly an impulse, but sure 'feels' like one with the downward bias being provided by the preceeding triangle 4-5 here.
Futures are flat right now, so no help there.
The new low below 4, although marginal, is significant in that it allows a decent aggressive short play once we see a sloppy upwards pattern here.
Otherwise, the bullish count here is that this is a B wave of a larger ABC 5th wave of an ending diagonal on the daily.
This means another leg up before we finish.
It takes a decline from here below the lower trend line to say the move up is more than likely done.
A continuation down below 9500 confirms that, at a minimum, a larger degree correction is underway to the downside, and more than likely the end of the rally as a whole.


THU FTSE PP

R2 4349
R1 4326
PP 4307
S1 4284
S2 4265

Close below Wed S2 after gaining 2.8pts in the auction, ftse holding onto bullishness by the skin of its teeth,



Updated 11/5 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/6
UP Above 9,850
DN Below 9,775

Still Consolidating
Dow pulls back within range, continues to consolidate.

From prior commentary, "...The index appears to be gearing up for yet another solid push higher, as the Dow is forming a bullish sloping consolidation at the highs of the recent week-long upmove...The Dow could continue to trend lower within the sloping consolidation before a break either way is seen...."
The Dow broke below 9,820 early in the session and continued slowly lower throughout much of the session, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index, however, made a sharp advance late in the session that kept the consolidation intact.

Looking at the 60 Minute Chart, you see that the downward-sloping consolidation continued to develop. Such formations hint at an upside break. A break through the top of the range at 9,840 will likely spark another solid advance in the medium term.

However, the index could continue to develop the pattern, pushing down and to the right, before a break either way is seen. The Dow ended the day reversing down off the upper boundary of the range, which could confirm this point. As always, we want to watch for consolidation pattern failures. A break below 9,775 will likely extend the current downmove in the index and should be shorted.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day with a solid rally to the Close and is now holding above the short term support level of 9,817, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. A break below this level will indicate weakness at the Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Short this morning at 9,812 and held the position throughout the day until finally stopping out at the entry due to the Breakeven Rule. No other trades were triggered and we are now out of the market. We will enter Long at 9,850 up, and Short at 9,775 down, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each trended lower for much of the session today, but a late-day upmove pushed the NASDAQ into positive territory by day's end. Both indexes continue to honor resistance, which is key if further upside is to be seen. *

Summary

The Dow pulled back for much of the day today, but rallied late in the session to further develop the sloping consolidation. Look for further activity within the range until a break occurs. Our fulcrums will be 9,850 up, and 9,775 down tomorrow.

Morning all

Morning all. Which way will the Banks go today?

Morning all

Personally I hope up Druid2!

Morning all.

I think Croc's got it right today. Bit of a yawn before rate
announcements then maybe some movement after the US jobless
at 1330.

FTSE at S1 with RBS tracking it.
AVZ still looking sickly.
My BT.A's have gone to sleep, maybe I should join them. :-)

Melnibone

AVZ now trying to stay at the 400p support.
If it fails this could get really ugly, I would hate
to be long on this stock at the moment.

RBS at S1. If FTSE gives up S1 I can see RBS dropping
to the 1520/1529 area.

Melnibone

Just noticed that FTSE S2 (4265), is the support line
on Croc's trend channel.

If we are at that and get bad news, things could get
interesting.

Melnibone

Except aren't we expecting bad news? And if by some miracle the interest rates don't go up??????

TATE produced some poor results (although about market expectations) and the share price goes up 4.5 points! I think if they have produced really good results they price would be down 4.5 points!

0.25% hike is already factored in the FTSE price.

By bad news I mean something different like US
payroll the wrong side of the expected range.

Ref TATE, poor results are usually factored in before
the official release. If results don't come in worse
than expected then you often get a relief rally as
folks breathe a sigh of relief.

Melnibone.

I was surprised to see that the news from Cisco was good - (I suppose too many of their competitors are no longer competitors!) In fact general the News from the US is better than I would have expected, and generally pretty positive.

(Just been taking a look at www.businessweek.com on the North American business news. )

Yes, matters are bumbling along, just depends how much is already
priced in for any more upward movement.

If we don't get any shocks I see no reason for Croc's trend
channel not to remain intact and we slowly grind higher through
the month.

Melnibone

There really is something to recommend driving a german car. I'm really getting used to this free instant breakdown service.

Forgot to turn the main lights off yesterday (I know it screams at you, when you open the door, but I managed to block it out & forget!). Woke up in the early hours as the alarm was going off intermitantly to tell me the battery was low. Managed to turn off the alarm and this morning rang the breakdown cover (free with the car). The just lent me a battery and tommorrow will give me back the old one re-charged. But then again I supposed I pay for it through the high charges for the basic service. (No more popping to the guy round the corner!)

Did anyone mention banks?

LLOY is yo you been pp & r1!

Am I right in thinking the market is reating well to the .25% increase in base rates. (less than the .50% many were predicting!)

Reacted well enough for me.

Used the bounce to take a small profit on my BT.A's.
This was meant to be a position trade but I'm
taking a chance I'll get my position back in these
at a lower level.

Melnibone

Check out the FTSE chart at the top of this thread and
click on the 5 Day tab.

Coincidence where the bounce stopped, or what?

Melnibone

No, I agree, but you never know it make break!

Well it's sort of hanging on.........

Can't watch, so going out for a gentle run/walk to watch the sun go down and let the market close with out me. Will check it out in about an hour?

Resisted the the temptation to buy back my position lower.
Can't understand why the FTSE is up near the week's high
with the US and Asian markets weaker.

Hope to get a pullback tomorrow morning especially as there
will be some nervousness leading up to the US payroll numbers.

These numbers need to be good, not just inline, to push
these markets higher.
If they are weaker it will give the markets the excuse they
are looking for to take some profit off the table.

Will watch the first hour tomorrow morning to see how things
start to pan out.

Good luck all.

Melnibone

Friday tommorrow - should be interesting!