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US Stocks closed higher following the good results from Cisco and what is expected to be a strong labour market report tomorrow Scottish and Newcastle said its 50 percent owned Baltic Beverages Holding in Eastern Europe, one of its key growth businesses, saw third-quarter sales in euros rise one percent. Cookson Group electronics and ceramics engineering said that activity in its markets improved in Q3 and it made a profit. It expects to meet market expectations for the year. EasyJet said it carried 1.92 million passengers in October, up 17.8 percent from the same month last year and its passenger loadings were 85.5 percent, up from 83.8 percent.

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I normally hang out on the Traders side, but it's been pointed out that the Investor side is really picking up steam, so I thought I copy this post.

As Nasdaq is leading again I thought I post this longer term chart as we approach 2000. Look along the 2000 line - resistance is there.

Stockcharts
11/6: Moderate rally of indeterminant form with a corresponding technical improvement.
As mentioned yesterday, it is difficult to count the decline from 9890 as an impulse, and so far there is nothing that makes it any easier just yet.
If I had to guess, I would expect a pop and drop tomorrow with a marginal new high for the move before the rally completes.
A rapid decline without a new high makes things a bit less certain because of the 'not so impulsive' decline preceeding today's rally.
So, near term a drop at the open that takes out 9750 is an aggressive short signal, with a breach of the lower boundary (9600-9650) a sell confirm.
Once that level is breached, there needs to be a clear 4-5 before the move is done, and the 9750 level is where stops should go until that pattern is seen.
Reaction to tomorrow's economic reports will be key, as the so far 'good' reports have failed to produce much of a reaction in the markets so far.
When markets fail to rally on what is considered good news, it usually it doesn't make a convincing argument for higher prices.
Nothing to do but continue to wait for the market to tip it's hand one way or the other..





Updated 11/6 for Friday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/7
UP Above 9,900
DN Below 9,770

Upside Break
Dow trends within consolidation, followed by upside break.

From prior commentary, "...the downward-sloping consolidation continued to develop. Such formations hint at an upside break...the index could continue to develop the pattern, pushing down and to the right, before a break either way is seen..."
The Dow pushed lower off the upper boundary of the bullish pattern early in the session today, and continued to develop the pattern for much of the session, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index finally got the upside break from the range late in the session, which sparked a solid move higher to the Close, seen in both the 15 and 60 Minute Charts.

The upside break implies continued strength in the medium term. However, the index would benefit from the formation of either a higher low or a new consolidation at the high before such heights are seen. An upside break through the recent highs at 9,900 will tend to confirm another move higher.

If the index cannot rise above 9,900, look for the Dow to form a large trading range at the highs from the lows of 9,770 to 9,900, seen in the 60 Minute Chart.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow rallied late in the session, forming a range from 9,840 to 9,770, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch for a break from this range to indicate direction tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we triggered Shorts this morning at 9,775, but were stopped out (20 point loss). We later entered the market Long at 9,850 and are still in the trade. We will continue to hold 20 point stops for the position tomorrow. We will stay Long above 9,900 and will look for Shorts below 9,770.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each reversed off the morning lows today to trend higher to the Close. The NASDAQ is holding above resistance, while the S&P continues to push higher to its resistance level. Watch resistance closely. *

Summary

The Dow traded within the consolidation boundaries for most of the day before finally breaking to the upside, sparking a key rally to the Close. Further upside is implied, but the inde must hurdle the 9,900 level before another solid move higher is seen.



FRIDAY FTSE PP

R2 4369
R1 4347
PP 4315
S1 4293
S2 4261

Close was above Thu pp after gaining 2.1pts in the auction, Ftse still holding onto bullishness and Dow just about at 9775!

Thanks Brian, TP
Morning all

Morning all,

Thanks for the info -

Morning all. Stopped out of BARC shorts at 499 yesterday for a nice profit. Plenty of spare margin now to look for something else.

Morning all,

Bit earlier for me today, there's this strange orange thing
in the sky creeping over the horizon. ;-)

FTSE at R1. I would like to see it drop to at least PP before
the US payroll numbers.

Seems to not want to go above the weekly highs.(Check out the
5 day tab on the FTSE chart at top of this thread again).

I still maintain that we need good, not just inline numbers, for
the markets to start another leg up.

But that doesn't mean that I'm right. If only it was that easy.

Melnibone

I think the UK is picking up on the US optimism and just relieved that results aren't worse than expected (or like ENRON!)

FTSE kissing R2 at the end of the first hour.

It would have to be a brave buyer who bought here.

Melnibone

I feel one of the reasons we lag so far behind the US [I talk as a private investor] and the reasons we are so far in debt. Hence the interest hike, is because we are so heavily taxed in this country. This makes it very difficult to save. Consequently people resort to various forms of credit and remortgaging to raise finance. In turn this has a bigger effect on the investment market on the whole. The private investor is that much more cautious as they know how hard it was to come by that free cash so to speak. That is partly why I feel we lag so far behind the US.

The US are in far more debt than we are, but companies in the US pay their bills promptly, unlike in the UK - so we have major cash flow problems & they don't. Also they have chapter 11, so the consequences for companies are not as bad as they are in the UK - so they can afford to take risks but we can't in the uK!

That looks like it could be the mornings top to me.

BARC and AV. reluctant to go much above 500p
RBS didn't make R2.
FTSE still around R2

Melnibone

It is the psych in the US. If people go bankrupt they are appauled for getting back on their feet not treated as a pariah which seems to be the case over here.

Their economy is far far greater shape then we are and they did it by dropping taxes and not increasing it as seem to be the case over here. It appears that when ever this goverment and successive goverments make errors they just raise taxes.

Makes it very hard for the small investors to raise excess cash through savings.

I must agree that raising taxes is not the answer. You'd have thought that we would have learn't that from when Maggie was in power. She lowered Taxes and the Treasury raked in more money than ever and paid off loads of debt. The current Gvt, have raised indirect taxes (e.g.NIC) and not really raked in any more money than before, as we are all looking for ways of not paying the extra!

If they made personal allowances 12,000 and then taxed the rest at 15% (treat all types of income as the same), then there would be no reason not to declare every penny a person earn't, no matter who you were - the tax forms would be a lot simpler. Think of all the extra money the govt would rake in from the exta declared income!

(Taxation Accountants would go out of business, so it wouldn't be popular, but tax inspectors would have no need to investigate individuals and just spend their time on companies!) Too simple!

Look at BT.a go!

BT.A is a sore point with me.
Got my timing wrong there and only took a small profit.

I had my opportunity to rebuy lower but misjudged the market.

Never mind, the market and it's opportunities will always be there.

Melnibone.

I know what you mean, I had built up quite a large holding not so long ago, but got fed up with it not going anywhere, so sold to release the cash at a small loss to move on. (Which I must admit is coming along nicely!)

My only worry is I'm starting to use stop losses more and more to lock in profits, but have to restrict some to the actual day as the spread first thing in the morning would kick some of them in, which I wouldn't want! But this is dependant on being around to set them up after the spreads tighten up!

I tend to use manual stops. I don't trust the way these wierd spikes
tend to happen that take positions out.

Getting very reluctant to take long positions at the moment.
Markets are just too near the highs for comfort.

I know that you should follow the trend but I would prefer these
levels to become the lows of a new leg up.
I'm starting to get the feeling that this is the top of the current
leg. May start looking to short the FTSE on strength.

Definitely not buying anything prior to the payroll numbers and seeing
the markets reaction today and possibly Monday.

Melnibone

I'm not buying either, but using the stop losses to lock in profit in case the market does drop (or carry on up, so I don't lose out too much!)

My new Grandson Zander with me this morning :-)

Snappy & Nappy (Thanks Vasey)

Excellent croc, I see you're still the doting grandfather.
LLOY is finally up, and of course so are the rest of the Banks!

FTSE well pass R2 - but can't see it hitting R3 4420! If it does??????????