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The Week Ahead     

Kam-MoneyAM - 15 Nov 2003 10:46

HAWK ALERT AS BANK VOTING REVEALED
With the City convinced that the sequel to this month's interest rate rise will come sooner rather than later, eyes are on the Bank of England this Wednesday.

Minutes of November 5-6 meeting of the monetary policy committee will show if the decision for a quarter point hike back to 3.75% passed without dissent.

Some analysts believe the MPC's more hawkish members may have pushed for a more sizeable half-point increase.

The Bank's latest outlook report suggested inflation is still set to ease back to the Government's 2.5% target, but won't now go much below it.

Dearer oil helped push the rate above 2.5% late last year, where it has remained ever since. October's figures are due Tuesday, after an easing in the RPIX from 2.9% to 2.8% a month earlier.

The EU-wide harmonised index (HICP) will become the official measure soon. This month's first upturn in mortgage rates, for the first time in nearly four years, is too modest to have much of an impact on demand.

Indeed, Thursday's survey from the Council of Mortgage lenders is likely to show demand near or even surpassing its recent record levels last month.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' own report for October is due two days before the CML figures.

A tale of three chiefs

It only briefly displaced BP as the UK's biggest company, but telecom giant Vodafone's share price is still a major influence on stock market trends.

The group's first half results will be revealed on Tuesday by chief executive Arun Sarin, who took over from Sir Chris Gent in the summer.

He has impressed the City so far, with a commitment to rolling-out third generation network services.

Sainsbury chief executive Sir Peter Davis's honeymoon period with investors came to an end some time back.

There are growing rumblings over the supermarket group's flagging sales growth and its relegation by rival Asda to the Number Three position.

The launch of an expanded range of non-food products in September will have been too late to help first half earnings, due out on Wednesday.

Imperial Tobacco chief executive Gareth Davis had to tread carefully last week when quizzed in court on the link between smoking and lung cancer.

The cigarettes giant now has a 44% UK market share and litigation is a major concern on both sides of the Atlantic.

Monday's full year results will include a contribution from German acquisition Reemtsma, but Sars and the Iraq war will have affected worldwide sales.

Also reporting this week...

Low-cost airline EasyJet issues finals on Tuesday, days after rival Ryanair warned that it planned no let-up in the price war and margins would suffer.

Lastminute.com, the online last-minute deals group follows on Thursday and will reveal if its move towards profit has been maintained in recent months.

Mothercare's interims are due the same day. The retailer reported a 6.6% jump in like-for-like sales last month.

MONDAY November 17

Finals: Cambridge Antibody Technology, Chrysalis, Diploma, Imperial Tobacco.

Interims: Burtonwood Brewery, Majestic Wine, MICE Group, mm02, Ten Alps Communications, Tortrak.

TUESDAY November 18

Finals: EasyJet, Enodis, WigmoreProperty Investment Trust.

Interims: Burberry, CML Microsystems, Cranswick, James Cropper, Detica, Dimension Data, Glotel, GWR Group, Hampson Industries, Imagination Technologies, Intelek, iTouch (Q3), 600 Group, Victoria, Viridian, Vodafone, Whitehead Mann Group.

Trading update: Dixons.

Consumer and producer prices, Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors housing market survey (Oct).

WEDNESDAY November 19

Interims: EMI Group, Glenmorangie, Land Securities, Northumbrian Water, VTech Holdings, J Sainsbury, Wyndeham Press.

Minutes of Bank of England monetary policy committee Nov 5-6 meeting.

THURSDAY November 20

Finals: Lastminute.com, Scottish Radio Holdings.

Interims: Babcock International, FKI Group, Great Portland Estates, GUS, Leopold Joseph, Mothercare, National Grid Transco, SAB Miller, Scapa Group, Tomkins (Q3).

Trading update: Hilton Group, Schroders.

Council of Mortgage Lenders mortgage lending survey, public sector finances (Oct).

FRIDAY November 21

Interims: BPB, Braemar Seascape, Fuller Smith & Turner.

Trading update: Stanley Leisure.
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