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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 22nd December (XMAS)
Crocodile - 21 Dec 2003 12:09
| Premarket Futures | FTSE -20 | DAX -25 | DOW -32 | S&P -3.4 | Nasdaq -8 |
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UK & European shares down on the US terror alert and news that Permalat could owe 7 billion dollars Oil prices may fall as Iraq oil starts to flow: Dollar falls against Yen on terror alert Canary Wharf faces a crucial shareholder vote today that could block a recommended 1.56-billion-pound takeover and clear the way for its founder to seek control National Express Group: Britain's rail regulator said it had picked the British bus and train operator as preferred bidder for the new Greater Anglia Franchise. It will run for seven years from April, with specified performance targets and an additional three years if they are met. Mentmore Plc said it had received a bid approach, and there was no assurance the deal would go through. Old Mutual said it was lending its South African banking group Nedcor two billion rand ($288 million) to shore up the unit's balance sheet. |
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Peel Holdings (I), Canary Wharf (EGM), Cheerful Scout (Trading Update) Old Mutual (Update) 00.01 Dec Rightmove House Price Index 09.30 Q3Total Business Investment q/q |
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07.00 Nov German Import Price Index y/y 1.1% 08.00 Dec German CPI y/y 1.1% |
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Crocodile - 21 Dec 2003 12:10 - 2 of 27
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Peel Holdings (I), Canary Wharf (EGM), Cheerful Scout (Trading Update) 00.01 Dec Rightmove House Price Index 09.30 Q3Total Business Investment q/q |
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07.00 Nov German Import Price Index y/y 1.1% 08.00 Dec German CPI y/y 1.1% | ||||||
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Excel Industries (F) Clipper Ventures (Trading Update) Dowding & Mills (Trading Update) 09.30 Q3Revised GDP q/q 0.7% exp. 09.30 Index of Distribution 3m/3m 09.30 Current Account (Balance of Payments) -7.0bn exp. |
13.30 Q3Final GDP 8.2% exp. 13.30 Q3Personal Consumption 6.4% exp. 13.30 Nov Personal Income 0.4% 13.30 Nov Personal Spending 0.7% exp. 14.50 Dec Final Michigan Sentiment 90.6 exp. |
09.00 Oct Current Account 4.0bn Europe: | ||||||
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Markets Close at 1230
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13.30 Nov Durable Goods Orders 0.8% exp. 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 20/12) 355k 15.00 Nov New Home Sales 1120k exp. Markets Close at 1800 GMT |
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Ex Dividend: Albermarle & Bond (1.75), BT Group (3.2), Close Brothers (3), Enterprise Inns (11.4), Expro International (3.8), Greene King (9.5), PHS Group (0.22), RPC Group (2.15) | ||||||||
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Markets Closed |
13:30 Initial Claims 14:45 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Markets Close at 1800 GMT |
Markets Closed |
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| Provisional Calendar For The Following Week 29th December - 2nd January 2004 | ||||||||
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15.00 Nov Help Wanted Index 38 .0 exp. | |||||||
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10.30 Dec GfK Consumer Confidence 5.0 exp. |
15.00 Dec Consumer Confidence 90.3 exp. 15.00 Nov Existing Homes Sales 6.42m exp. 15.00 Dec Chicago PMI 61.1 exp. | 09.00 Oct M3 Money Supply 3m ma | ||||||
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Markets Close at 1230 |
13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 27/12) |
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Ex Dividend: AAEA Technology (1.5), Atkins WS (2), BOC Group (15.5), Reliance Security Group (3.8), Smith WH (13), Speedy Hire (3.7), Ultraframe (7.86), Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries (21.2), Workspace Group (10.3) | ||||||||
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09.30 Nov Final M4 Money Supply 09.30 Nov Net Consumer Credit 1.4bn exp. 09.30 BOE Publishes Q3 Mortgage Equity Figures 09.30 Nov Net Lending Secured on Dwellings 9.0bn exp. 09.30 Dec CIPS Manufacturing PMI |
15.00 Dec Manufacturing ISM 60.0 exp. | 09.00 Dec BME Manufacturing PMI |
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| Trading Thoughts & Week Ahead - Sunday 21st December |
Peel Holdings the owner of Liverpool's John Lennon Airport and Manchester's Trafford Centre and Coffee Republic issue Interim results. Canary Wharf is holding an Extraordinary General Meeting where shareholders will be asked to vote on the disposal of 5 Canada Square and 25 Canada Square to enable the takeover offer to proceed. Tuesday In the U.S we get the final GDP figures for the year with expectations there will be no change from the previous quarter with an 8.2 percent annual growth rate. That marked the strongest quarterly advance in 19-1/2 years.There will not be much trading next week but historically the US has the "Santa Claus rally" where the DOW rises in the last five trading days of the year and the first two in January. This has bee good for a 1.7 percent gain since 1969, or 1.5 percent since 1950. Thoughts: THE SPIKE ?? As this is the last 'Thoughts' of 2003 I would like to start by thanking you all for your contributions during the last 12 months. It is good to learn from each others success and failures and share new trading ideas however bizarre or quirky they can appear at first glance. It does not matter if its Fibonacci, lunar cycles or astrology, as long as enough people believe in the ideas and use them for trading it will have an affect on the market. As there will not be any significant trading next week it seems a good opportunity to look at the market direction for the start of 2004. A good indicator could be the Dow Jones which is currently breaking through all resistance lines on a surge of buying. As the 5 year chart shows it is not unusual for such a 'Spike' to be created as the market overheats just before it crashes back. We are now in the 'danger area' shown by the red blobs on the chart so it may be a good time to consider taking some profits on long term positions. If I am right and this is a 'Spike' we could see serious institutional selling starting in the New Year with a fast 10-15% over 3 months. It is interesting how these patterns do repeat themselves and I was fascinated to find out that you can draw support lines which are exactly parallel to each other for the last 5 years! This gives me confidence that the rise this year is not exceptional and is likely to come to a halt just as the other upturns have done in the past. After all there is plenty of a scope for a fall with the Nasdaq up a massive 46 percent, the Dow Jones and S&P up more than 23 percent so far this year. This is partly due to the improving World economy but the issue is how much of the recovery is already reflected in stock prices On Friday I decided to take out a medium term short on the DOW at 10275 looking for a fall of more than 1000 points during January & February. However I have set a 125 point stop loss just in case the 'Red Blob' theory is not as accurate an indicator compared to the alignment of Mars & Venus. I would like to end by wishing you all a very happy Christmas and a profitable new year. Looking forward to your thoughts and comments on the year ahead! David (Crocodile) David@SnappyTrader.com www.SnappyTrader.comAll the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research. |
The
London market will close at 12:30pm on Christmas Eve and re-open at 8am on
Monday 29 December. The market will then close at 12:30pm on New Year's Eve and
re-open at 8am on Friday 2 January.Monday
The last quarterly change to the FTSE UK Index Series this year takes place. The
changes are based on the closing prices of companies on 10 December. British
Airways, Hays will be rejoining the FTSE 100 while Provident Financial and
Mitchells & Butlers drop down into the FTSE 250.Crocodile - 21 Dec 2003 12:10 - 3 of 27
| Premarket Futures | FTSE +- | DAX +- | DOW +- | S&P +- | Nasdaq +- |
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Headlines Sunday 21st December EUROPE was today facing the prospect of its biggest-ever corporate fraud as Italian food group Parmalat admitted that documents purporting to show it had e4bn (2.8bn) of cash and securities were forgeries. Financial Times, quoted a source close to the company as saying the management was considering some form of bankruptcy protection. Marks & Spencer staff are set to miss out on their annual bonus after a huge slump in clothing sales at the High Street giant this Christmas. According to insiders, sales of clothing are running at up to 10% below last year. Vodaphone, orange, MMo2: Oftel Goes For Mobile Charges Cut: The telecoms operator has made its next move in its bid to get the price of mobile phone calls down. Telecoms watchdog Oftel says it has told the European Commission of its proposals to promote competition and reduce the price of calling a mobile phone. Banks: A SIGNIFICANT minority of people are increasingly vulnerable to their mounting debts, the Bank of England said yesterday. |
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SUNDAY TIMES BAE, BAA New runways are given go-ahead Unilever plans diet ice cream easyJet5 for a night with Stelios Ryanair card to land in Germany Canary Wharf Ultimatum for Reichmann: go or be pushed Hogg warns of Glaxo brain drain Flowers in bid for Royal and Sun Alliance life business Transware set to quit AIM Mentmore Guy Hands bounces back with bid and 1.4bn fund Skyepharma Founder to leave ailing Skye Business Digest The Big Food Group WH Smiths top women face pay row Royal Bank of Scotland Scotland: Five-a-side Vida buys itself out |
Sainsbury Those who need not apply BSkyB Our pick of the years movers and shakers Canary Wharf Those who need not apply Cable and Wireless Our pick of the years movers and shakers Lloyds TSB Widows bank to seek new chief MyTravel Group Those who need not apply Son of Morrison steps out of fathers shadow Focus: Sky is no longer the limit, Ryanair Holdings Barclays Those who need not apply BP Our pick of the years movers and shakers Sharewatch: Glenmorangie Carlton Those who need not apply William Morrison Our pick of the years movers and shakers |
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SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Granada Gent rejected for ITV chair M&S hit by downturn in clothing market share Vodafone Premier Oil giant Shaw dies at 82 Morrison will manage the merger |
Glaxo's average performance GlaxoSmithKline 'The biggest problem of my career' Don't bet the house on Abbey National |
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OBSERVER Safeway Morrison plans to sell 140 Safeway branches Marks & Spencer Worst Christmas sales for years Troubled British Energy sells stake in Amergen to stay alive |
BSkyB The football match over, Sky must change its pitch British American Tobacco Tricks of cigarette marketing smoked out |
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SUNDAY MAIL Cadbury Schweppes under fire on US schools deal Character Group, Chorion: Which way will Noddy go now? Chelsfield 890m Chelsfield pitch by Bernerd Chrysalis Group The winning bet... |
Entertainment Rights Which way will Noddy go now? Marks & Spencer Marks loses touch with core market, Store struggles as women stay away Northern Foods Northern Foods in 35m tins sale UKbetting The winning bet.. |
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Cadbury Schweppes faces an ethics audit by New York's chief financial regulator over what he calls an 'unfair and tainted' contract to place the company's Snapple juices at 1,200 schools in the city. William C. Thompson Jr has urged New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to cancel the 94 million five year contract Millions of people are at risk of not receiving their salaries or being unable to pay bills as urgent talks are held to stave off a crisis in the bank clearing system. Even a small default by a medium-sized financial insitution, such as a building society, could bring a major part of the payment mechanism to a halt, crippling economic and social activity. |
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INDEPENDENT Russian tycoon bids to join Corus board |
Big Food Group 'Judas' claim as members turn on Londis directors |
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SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY Vodafone looks east to buy more of Polish mobile firm GlaxoSmithKline Investors step up opposition to Garnier pay Aberdeen Asset Management weighing up 45m bid Weir Group boosts presence in Middle East |
SMG Warnings dampen optimism in software industry LogicaCMG Warnings dampen optimism in software industry DA Group gets animated over Far East deals Wolfson Microelectronics Digital boom strikes chord for Wolfson |
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SUNDAY EXPRES Russian tycoon bids to join Corus board: The Russian metals tycoon who has built up a 96m stake is seeking a seat on the board of the troubled steelmaker. Broker's note sees bargain hunters chasing Cable & Wireless Cable & Wireless had a stonking session yesterday and as the year draws to a close the telecom carrier is pretty much assured to end 2003 as the best blue-chip performer. Things are looking up at Royal & SunAlliance. Shares in the insurance group have under performed the FTSE 100 index by 10 per cent over the past quarter and have fallen by 18 per cent during the past year. |
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INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy RMC (RMC) at 625p - Speedy Hire (SDY) at 370p - Windsor (WNDR) at 43.5p - Basepoint (BNT) at 117p.Sell JJB Sports (JJB) at 250p - Quiktrak Network (QTR) at 20p. Updates: Buy Lloyds TSB (LLOY) - TT Electronics (TTG) - William Ransom (RNSM). Sell Antofagasta (ANTO) - Top Ten Holdings (TTH) good value. Company Results: Sell Homestyle (HME) - MyTravel Group (MT) - Carpetright (CPR). Buy NHP (NHP). |
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SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy Vianet (VIA) at 6.87p - Grainger Trust (GRI) at 15.93 - GMA Resources (GMA) at 22.5p.Updates: Buy Kewill Systems (KWL) and Centurion Electronics (CUC). Hold Sterling Energy (SEY).Commerzbank 2004 stock picks: - BAE Systems (BA) - BOC (BOC) - BSkyB (BSY) - GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) - Prudential (PRU) - Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) - Reuters (RTR) - Shell (SHEL) - Tesco (TSCO).2003 Portfolio Review: - Rotork (ROR) - McBride (MCB) - Polar Capital Technology Trust (PCT) - Delta (DLTA) - Telecom Plus (TEP) - Intechnology (ITO) - Online Travel (ONT) - Future Network (FNET) - Johnston Press (JPR) - Hiscox (HSX) - ICAP (IAP) - Enterprise (ETR) - Honeycombe Leisure (HCL) - Cobra Biomanufacturing (CBF) - GW Pharmaceuticals (GWP) - Rexam (REX) - RPS (RPS) - Baggeridge Brick (BGBK) - TBI (TBI). |
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little woman
- 21 Dec 2003 12:36
- 4 of 27
The santa claus rally - mmmmmmm I wonder if it'll happen this year too!
There was a amusing comment from Madeleine Albright, Secretary of State in Bill Clintons day, who asked "Do you suppose the Bush Administration has Osama Bin laden hidden away somewhere and will bring him out before the election?"
capt M - 21 Dec 2003 16:05 - 5 of 27
Adding to your red blob theory - the red blobs are getting further apart, so after the next crash we should get a good couple of years before the next!! Do you think this theory will make it into Murphys TA?
Thanks for your efforts this year, merry Xmas everyone.
M
Crocodile - 21 Dec 2003 16:07 - 6 of 27
Well I doubt if the Red Blob theory will get anywhere. In retrospect m just wondering what I was drinking last night and how much! More likely to have been a reflection from my nose at the time ;-)
D.
ThePlayboy
- 22 Dec 2003 07:17
- 7 of 27
R2 4449
R1 4430
PP 4410
S1 4392
S2 4371
Fri close was above the pp but lost 7.5pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart targeting 4445 if US stays positive after Ops exp, if not uptrend brk at 4410 back to 4390!
Updated 12/19 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 12/22
UP Above 10,300
DN Below 10,225
Consolidating
Dow trades sideways, forms clear consolidation at highs.
From prior commentary, "...Look for either a consolidation or a higher low to form at the highs to indicate that further upside is likely. Typically, the market consolidates after such a big move in order to digest the current market activity..."
The Dow traded sideways the entire session today, forming a range at the highs from 10,225 to 10,300, seen in the 15 Minute Charts. The sideways movement ended with a 30 point gain for the index, seen in the 15 Minute Chart.
The fact that the Dow is forming a consolidation at the highs hints at further upside movement in the medium term. An upside break from the range at 10,300 will make for a continued upside push in the medium term. Otherwise, a downside break from the consolidation at 10,225 will indicate weakness and a likely retracement for Monday's market.
However, look for the Dow to continue sideways within the range boundaries before any such break is seen, as further development of the consolidation will likely occur.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a clear short term support level at 10,264, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Look for strength above this level for Monday's Open. Otherwise, a downside break here will introduce weakness Monday morning.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still Long the Dow from 10,190 and will move stops up to 10,225 for Monday's market. We will want to stay Long above 10,300, and will look to enter Shorts below 10,225, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each traded sideways today, losing slightly for the session. We will watch the tight ranges that continue to form at the highs for Monday's market. A break from the ranges will indicate direction Monday. *
Summary
The Dow gained slightly for the session today, forming a tight consolidation at the highs of the current upmove. Look for a likely break from the consolidation for Monday's market. An upside break is most likely, but watch both boundaries for a move.
Crocodile - 22 Dec 2003 07:36 - 8 of 27
Druid2
- 22 Dec 2003 07:51
- 9 of 27
little woman
- 22 Dec 2003 08:03
- 10 of 27
I wonder what the Christmas bonuses are going to be like this year!
ThePlayboy
- 22 Dec 2003 08:10
- 11 of 27
Douggie - 22 Dec 2003 08:42 - 12 of 27
Melnibone - 22 Dec 2003 09:06 - 13 of 27
Just seems to be dithering around the PP.
Looking for scalps again, no position trades until
I see where the new year is heading. In my opinion,
these Christmas week moves are not really indicative
of market direction and sentiment and nothing of much
importance should be read into them.
Not sure if I'll be doing my usual long MKS scalp if
it hits 268/269p again. After those weekend press reports
of its declining sales it would take a leap of faith.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 22 Dec 2003 11:11
- 14 of 27
little woman
- 22 Dec 2003 11:40
- 15 of 27
little woman
- 22 Dec 2003 12:56
- 16 of 27
stockbunny
- 22 Dec 2003 15:07
- 17 of 27
Amid the seriously working which appears to still be carrying
on in here, I would like to remind you Christmas cake, mince
pies and other seasonal fayre is available in the tea rooms.
Thank you and good luck today to all!!!
((Bows and quietly leaves room....))
stockbunny
- 22 Dec 2003 15:21
- 18 of 27
Oh please appoint the lady from Debenhams! The whole idea
of MKS clothing being headed by someone from New Look is
hardly a great move IMHO - Bit like appointing someone
from WLW to head Thorntons!
Lastly....Go HBOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Melnibone - 22 Dec 2003 15:22 - 19 of 27
have woken us all up. :-)
A 15 point trading range since 0900 has had a distinctly
soporific effect.
We are also rather underwhelmed by the new highs
set in Chistmas week on low volume.
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Melnibone
Melnibone - 22 Dec 2003 16:03 - 20 of 27
would mean calling a turn and fighting the tide.
If the FTSE can be pushed on high volatility/low volume
through circa 4450, then automated buys from Bulls and
short covers by Bears could spike this market above
4500.
Also, I don't like shorting the FTSE when the afternoon
trend after 1530 is up.
Certainly not opening longs, so leaving this alone.
TP may get his 4445 yet.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 22 Dec 2003 21:28 - 21 of 27
open the FTSE short I was talking about.
FTSE currently showing 4437/4441 on CMC.
Dow looks like it's going to try for 10,500 and S@P
for 1100.
Depends on what the data is like at 1330hrs and the
December consumer confidence at 1450hrs.
Looks like another gap open higher tomorrow, Bears must
be getting concerned with the FTSE within spitting distance
of a breakout higher.
Could see some Bear closing which will fuel it higher.
Melnibone.
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