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Traders Thread - Thursday 15th January (WLW)
Crocodile - 14 Jan 2004 21:35
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US stocks rose with investors putting money to work on bets that quarterly earnings will support the almost 12-month stock rally, including Intel, due to release results shortly Woolworths posted a small rise in underlying Christmas sales on Thursday and said it was on course to deliver annual profits within the current range of market expectations. They said sales at stores open more than a year rose 0.8 percent with analyst forecasts from 0.6 percent to 2.8 percent Northern Foods suppliers to the UK's top supermarkets said trading over Christmas was good.After a first-half profits fall they said total group sales for the three months to December 31 were 7.2 percent ahead, while total sales to its five largest retail customers were up 8.0 pct. HMV said it grew sales by around three percent during Christmas and was on track to hit year targets as it posted a 70 percent rise in first-half profit to 10.7 million pounds compared with analysts' forecasts of 6-9.2 million pounds. The Body Shop said sales over the Christmas trading period were five percent lower but margins rose due to less discounting. It added its forecast for the full year was in line with market expectations. Reuters said the worst of a prolonged revenue slide was over and forecast first-quarter core subscription revenues to fall nine percent or less. "I am confident that we have now passed the inflection point in our recurring revenue decline," CEO said in a statement. Clinton Cards said that sales at shops open more than a year rose 2.3 percent in the five weeks to December 24, without the firm resorting to discounting. Total sales rose 9.6 percent over the same period Carphone Warehouse said it was confident its annual results would beat market forecasts after a strong third quarter of buoyant demand for handsets. They said like-for-like retail revenues rose 27.7 percent in the 13 weeks to December 27, with like-for-like gross profit up 15.6 percent. |
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HMV H1 & Christmas TradingGUS Trading Update Reuters Trading Update, Boots Trading Update, Carphone Warehouse Trading Update, Woolworths Trading Update, Ottakars Trading Update Body Shop Trading Update, Merchant Retail Trading Update09.30 Nov Total New Construction Orders |
Bank of America (Q4), Continental Airline (Q4), General Motors (Q4), Sun Microsystems (Q4) 13.30 Dec CPI 0.2% exp. 13.30 Dec Advance Retail Sales 0.8% exp. 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 10/01) 352k exp. 13.30 Jan Empire State manufacturing Index 37.5 exp. 17.00 Jan Philly Fed 30.0 exp. 19.00 Dec Monthly Budget Statement -$12.5bn exp. |
11.00 3rd Quarter Revised GDP q/q 0.4% exp. 11.00 Commission Publishes 4th & 1st Quarter GDP Forecast 07.00 Dec New Car Registrations y/y 08.00 German Annual GDP Growth Rate 0.1% exp. |
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ThePlayboy
- 15 Jan 2004 07:18
- 2 of 18
r2 4486
r1 4461
pp 4452
s1 4440
s2 4419
Close was above Wed pp! 2 day ftse chart targeting 4480 if DJ cna hold 10500 with good intel results, if not brk of uptrend at 55 targeting 4440 imho!
ThePlayboy
- 15 Jan 2004 07:18
- 3 of 18
Key DOW Levels for 1/15
UP Above 10,600
DN Below 10,500
Rally
Dow breaks consolidation to upside, rallies to the Close.
From prior commentary, "...Look for a continued downtrend to occur until the index forms a base at support...A solid upside push through 10,500 could spark the formation of a wide trading range at the highs of the major uptrend..."
The Dow seems to have found support at around 10,375, and rallied to gain over 100 points for the session, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. Today's rally began at the open, hesitated, and resumed after breaking an intraday consolidation to the upside.
Looking at the 60 Minute Chart, you see that the Dow appears to be forming a wide trading range at the highs of the major uptrend from 10,375 to 10,590. This will likely be the range that the Dow stays witin until the index can establish another medium term trend. Look for the Dow to trade sideways within the range for quiet some time until a clear and solid break occurs.
An upside break through the top of the range at 10,600 will make for further upside movement, while a break below 10,500 will make for weakness toward support.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the highs of the 1 Minute Chart from 10,530 to 10,550. Watch for a break from this range for short term direction tomorrow morning.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we covered Shorts this morning at 10,442, giving us a 2 point loss for the trade. We later entered the market Long at 10,500, but stopped out. We re-entered Long at 10,522 and are still in the trade, with "breakeven" stops at the entry. We will want to stay Long above 10,600, and will look for Shorts below 10,500, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each trended higher today, with each ended the session at the relative highs. Look for continued movement within the wide trading range until eithe of the boundaries are broken. *
Summary
The Dow rallied off support today, forming the beginning of what will likely become a wide trading range at the highs. Look for the index to remain within this range until another medium term trend is established.
Crocodile - 15 Jan 2004 07:41 - 4 of 18
Druid2
- 15 Jan 2004 08:12
- 5 of 18
Douggie - 15 Jan 2004 09:06 - 6 of 18
Melnibone - 15 Jan 2004 09:08 - 7 of 18
TP's summed it up well, nothing to add to that.
AZN still dropping, be interesting to see what happens
at 2500.
SHEL may be settling at last. Possibility that it may just be
working off the oversold condition by going sideways for a bit,
so I'll keep my powder dry for a top up just yet.
They don't go Ex-Divi until March, so there's plenty of time for
some lower prices yet.
If BP. drop enough, I might pick up some of them instead but they
need to drop some more to equalise the yield with SHEL.
EDIT: I put AZN as 2550 instead of 2500, Doh! edited to 2500.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 15 Jan 2004 09:39
- 8 of 18
Melnibone - 15 Jan 2004 09:54 - 9 of 18
MKS just had a little bounce off the March lows again
same as in November and December.
Thinking about a scalp long towards 280p, but I'm a little
wary of the US taking profits and taking the FTSE down
for a swing low.
Everything seems a bit finely balanced at the moment.
Melnibone.
bishopjeremy
- 15 Jan 2004 10:44
- 10 of 18
does anyone know the reason for the jump in CFN Cafe Nero this morning.
Many thanks for any info
stockbunny
- 15 Jan 2004 13:39
- 11 of 18
R R R R Reuters
RTR
RTR
Oh its a good day today!!!!
And who's stuck the boot into WLW?
Up against some trading updates recently, theirs wasn't bad!!
little woman
- 15 Jan 2004 14:22
- 12 of 18
ThePlayboy
- 15 Jan 2004 14:52
- 13 of 18
Melnibone - 15 Jan 2004 14:54 - 14 of 18
channel again.
BT.A was a good move Testex, still in two minds over MKS,
I've had such a good time with it I'm overdue for a clobbering.
Don't know how long I can resist though.:-)
AZN seems to be holding 2500, but my GSK don't seem to be
following the FTSE. Have to have another look at these.
Nowhere near my stop yet, so no need for a rash decision.
Can't read this market at the moment, it's got me puzzled.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 15 Jan 2004 15:39 - 15 of 18
Hi Testex,
GSK could go as low as 1160. If it starts to break and close
below 1150 with a negative chart set-up I would probably stop
out in case the March lows beckoned.
I've kept this stop wide to take this level into account which
is I why I only bought 50% of what I wanted.
It was still a bad trade though. :-(
Should have followed the signals and not tried to second guess
it. Still, you've got to kick over the traces now and then.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 15 Jan 2004 15:48 - 16 of 18
Ref the MKS question, I may have missed the boat, but the
chart bars still looks negative to me. This is a similar
position to where GSK was when I gambled that GSK would
hold 1250.
As the song goes: "We won't get fooled again". (I wish!)
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 15 Jan 2004 16:49 - 17 of 18
Got my eye on HSBA at the moment instead of HBOS, but it won't
give me a buy signal.
Everyone seems to be doing OK at the moment, Druid with EZJ,
little woman with RTR etc...
I can't seem to get going at the moment. I'm getting conflicting
signals for my swing trades, (either that or I've lost the plot),
and the FTSE is just messing about in no-mans land for my index
trades.
Not too bothered about GSK, I always keep sensible position sizes
in relation to my trading pot and work out my stops before entering
any position. GSK is an even lighter position than normal as I knew
it was a gamble.
I wouldn't let it get that far, but it could go bust and just sting
me, wouldn't wipe me out.
I hope you will understand if I say that I hope you don't get your
1180p entry level. :-)) (Only kidding!)
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 15 Jan 2004 17:04 - 18 of 18
I know what you mean about SHEL, you get torn in two directions
in this situation.
This may well go lower, as you say other folks are predicting 330p.
But how come they are the only ones with a serviceable Delorean? :-)
Take another look at that huge 5% gap down open. It didn't trade
down there with folks selling their holdings, it opened up there
and left them stranded.
This isn't a blue sky wonder stock that is fond of quoting EBITDA
(Earnings before Interest, Tax and Devious Accounting), it's a major
blue chip oil stock with a dividend in excess of 4% and a great
earnings history.
I reckon that some time in the future, don't know when, it will at
least close that gap and pay you a dividend in the process.
Melnibone.
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