BROWN POISED FOR UK GROWTH VICTORY?
With most high street names now having reported on Christmas and the bank reporting season still to come, the week ahead is a slow burner.

It begins with a whisper - Wall Street is closed on Monday ahead of a deluge of reports from the US corporate sector..

..and ends with a bang on Friday, a crunch day for economic data which will decide whether the Bank of England stays its hand on interest rate hikes.

After third quarter economic growth was hiked to an unexpectedly strong 0.8%, will Friday's first fourth quarter estimate offer similar good news?

Analyst Jeremy Batstone of Fyshe Horton Finney thinks the figure could again be 0.8%, as a resurgent service sector offsets less robust manufacturing.

Gerrard chief economist Simon Rubinsohn goes for 0.7% - still enough to give Gordon Brown a year-on-year of 2.3%.

D-Day for rates

Friday also sees the issue of December retail sales figures. Coupled with data on fourth quarter economic growth, it marks D-Day for interest rates.

Both will be digested by the Bank of England. The monetary policy committee meets on February 3-4 to vote on whether another rate hike is needed from 3.75%.

If the data is fairly strong, the MPC could be more evenly split than usual, says Simon Rubinsohn of Gerrard.

Wednesday offers another busy schedule, with this month's Bank of England minutes revealing whether the decision to hold rates was closer than December's 8-1.

Public finances data for December, the first since Gordon Brown hiked the expected 2003-04 deficit to 37.4bn, is likely to make the usual grim reading.

Mortgage lending data for the month may show a slight easing back from the record levels touched last autumn.

Signs of life in life sector?

Insurance giants Avivaand Prudential are due toupdate the market on fourth quarter sales, as some analysts suggest 2004 could be a year of revival.

Merrill Lynch comments that sales of life, pension and investment products dived in 2003, with a 13% fall for the industry in the first three quarters.

But for Aviva, reporting on Tuesday, the fall was 15% and the Pru, following on Thursday, suffered a 19% slide.

The Christmas trading update season wraps up with fashion chain Monsoon and pubs group JD Wetherspoon reporting.

Despite the trail of casualties in the clothing sector, Monday's figures from Monsoon may compare well - in October it reported like-for-like sales up 8%.

Wetherspoon reports on Tuesday, after its early November update showed sales were running 4.2% ahead but higher taxes and licensing changes had hit earnings.

First-half results from supermarket group Somerfield on Wednesday may show its Kwik Save chain continues to drag down the overall performance.

Thursday sees interims from software group Misys, following a pre-Christmas upset when it warned the market that revenues would show a 10% fall.

Stanley Leisure, also due Thursday, warned on profits in September but has since reported improved trading.

MONDAY January 19

Finals: Sanctuary Group.

Trading update: Monsoon.

US markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

TUESDAY January 20

Interims: Bespak.

Trading update: Aviva (Q4), Homestyle, Luminar, J D Wetherspoon.

Consumer prices (Dec).

WEDNESDAY January 21

Finals: GW Pharmaceuticals.

Interims: Somerfield.

Trading update: Cookson Group (Q4).

Bank of England monetary policy committee minutes of January 7-8 meeting. Council of Mortgage Lenders mortgage lending survey, public sector finances (Dec).

THURSDAY January 22

Finals: Ashtead, Misys, Stanley Leisure.

Trading update: Blacks Leisure, Marlborough Stirling, Prudential (Q4), St James's Place Capital (Q4).

British Chamber of Commerce economic survey (Q4).

FRIDAY January 23

Finals: Burndene Investments.

Index of distribution (Nov), retail sales (Dec). Gross domestic product (Q4 first estimate).