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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 16th February (MNU)
Crocodile - 15 Feb 2004 12:09
| UK PreMarket Futures | FTSE -2 | DAX -10 | DOW Closed | S&P Closed | Nasdaq Closed |
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Vodafone, AT&T Wireless is reported to have asked rival bidders Vodafone and Cingular to sweeten offers worth about $35 billion sources familiar with talks sayCanary Wharf, Morgan Stanley may increase its bid to 293p St Modwen property firm reported a 17% rise in annual profits and said the current financial year had started well. Annual profits came in at 35 million pounds from 30 million a year earlier within analysts expectations and the dividend is increased 16 percent to 6.6 pence. Anglo Platinum profits fall 64% Exel storage and logistics firm says it has reached an agreement to buy the logistics unit of Japanese electronics conglomerate Fujitsu to triple the size of its Japanese operations. Compass Group the world's biggest catering firm, said it was on course to hit its annual targets with turnover up at least six percent this year and to improve like-for-like margins by 20-30 basis points |
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SMP St Modwen Properties (F), eq group, Stream ITNET, Anglo Platinum, Hercules Property Services, |
U.S. markets closed for Presidents Day. |
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Crocodile - 15 Feb 2004 12:10 - 2 of 15
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SMP St Modwen Properties (F), eq group, Stream ITNET, Anglo Platinum, Hercules Property Services, |
U.S. markets closed for the Presidents Day holiday. |
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AHM Amersham (F), BG BG Group (F) RTR Reuters Group (F), DICOM Group (I) TMPL Temple Bar Investment Trust (F) Second Alliance Trust (H1), Netstore (I) Fairplace Consulting (I), BG Group (F) Bradford & Bingley (F)Hardys & Hanson (AGM) UK RICS Jan house price survey (0030 ) |
GPC Genuine Parts Company Q4 GLG Glamis Gold Limited Q4 NTAP Network Appliance Inorated Q3 Agilent Technologies Q1 Fairplace Consulting, Macro 4, Netstore, Rights and Issues I.T. 2.15pm Capacity Utilization 2.15pm Industrial Production 1.30pm NY Empire State Index |
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ABP Associated British Ports Holdings (F) CBRY Cadbury Schweppes (F) STAN Standard Chartered (F), BLT BHP Billiton Temple Bar Investment Trust (F), Bradford & Bingley (F) CRC Group, Microgen Kingfisher Trading statement (Q4) |
ADCT ADC Telecommunications Inorated Q1 AMAT Applied Materials Inc Q1 JNY Jones Apparel Group Inc Jones Apparel Group Inorated Q4 INTU Intuit Inc Intuit Inorated Q21.30pm Building Permits, Housing Starts |
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Ex Dividend: Viridian Group 9.46p 5.61%, Compass Group 5.70p 2.31%, Inter Link Foods 1.85p 1.12%, AstraZeneca 34.56p 1.99%. Awaiting further data | ||||||||
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DGE Diageo (H1), HNS Hanson (F) RBS Royal Bank of Scotland Group (F) Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (F), Morgan Sindall (F) BHP Billiton (I), Reed Elsevier (F) UK RICS Jan house price survey (0030 ) |
HPQ Hewlett-Packard Q1, TGT Target Q4 GENZ Genzyme Q4, JWN Nordstrom Q4 PCG PG&E Q4, RSH Radioshack Q4 WMT Wal-Mart Stores Q4 WMB The Williams Companies Q4 NXTL Nextel Comms Q4, UVN Univision Comms Q4 CIEN Ciena Q1, FE FirstEnergy Q4 KG King Pharmaceuticals Q4 Qwest Comms International Q4 3.00pm Leading Indicators 5.00pm Philadelphia Fed 1.30pm Core PPI, 1.30pm Initial Claims |
Bilfinger Berger(F) Hugo Boss (I) DaimlerChrysler (F) SCM Microsystems (F) TotalFinaElf (F) | ||||||
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Go-Ahead Group (F), Alliance & Leicester (F), ASOSDe Vere Group (AGM), Bankers Investment Trust (AGM) |
1.30pm Core CPI 1.30pm CPI |
Deutsche Boerse (F) L'Oreal (F) |
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| Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead - Sunday 15th February |
MondayITNET The IT services group is poised to forecast another year of healthy profits up 10% to 18m.as the company gains from more local government contracts.TuesdayReuters reveal full-year results after they recently updated the market with the good news that tide of revenue decline is expected to start easing back and the number of subscriber cancellations has reduced. The news agency has been keeping investors informed of its restructuring programme, dubbed "Fast Forward" and the benefits should give a much-improved profit figure of around 130m Amersham biotech is set to reveal a decline in pre-tax profits to 291m from 300m last year when it posts its final results before the company merges with General ElectricBG Group Oil & Gas is expected to reports strong growth as it releases annual numbers following a positive update in November. Look for profits of 1.1bn up 38% on the year before. WednesdayCadbury Schweppes deliver full year results which are expected to be around 880m, down from the same time the year before. However they have previously described 2003 as a transitional year in which acquisitions are integrated. However the high borrowing to buy Dr Pepper makes this share high on my list as a potential big loser. Kingfisher warned of a slowdown in fourth-quarter trading last year but expect growth of more than 3% and new space at B&Q should mean that total sales increased by 8%. BoE`s minutes of Feb MPC meeting (09:30).ThursdayMillennium & Copthorne update the market on how the sector has recovered following SARS and the Iraq war. Expect full-year profits of around 18m versus 60m a year ago. Royal Bank of Scotland reports its final results with pre-tax profits of 7bn expected against 6.45bn a year ago. As with other banks, good dividend* growth is anticipated and RBS may choose to announce the start of a share buyback programme Diageo half-year results should show that spirits trading in the US has been satisfactory with the group's premium brands such as Smirnoff vodka and Captain Morgan rum performing well. Profits are expected to be 1.3 billion against 1.29 billion a year ago. FridayGo-Ahead announces interim results following an earlier update in which the group said it expects another strong set of results for the half year. Retail sales data will liven up the sector as they indicate the strength of consumer spending during the January sales. Alliance & Leicester posts its annual results on Friday, with the banking group set to post profits of 520m compared with 463m a year ago. Look for possible news that the 4% revenue growth target will be missed in the current financial year. Thoughts Banks once again will dominate next weeks results with Bradford & Bingley, Standard Chartered, Royal Bank of Scotland and Alliance & Leicester set to grab the headlines. Look for details on bad debt provisions and dividend rises to give indications on the expected prospects for the UK economy in the coming year. Effects of rising interest rates on their businesses will also give some idea as to what impact the higher cost of borrowing will have on the housing market. .Earnings from Diageo & Cadbury Schweppes, BHP Billiton, BG and Hanson could be heavily influenced by the impact of the dollar In the US corporate merger talk will again fill the air following Comcast $50 billion takeover bid for Walt Disney & Vodafones $30 billion-plus bid to gain control of AT&T. Alan Greenspan statement that interest rates are likely to remain low for some time to come have again supported investor sentiment but low volumes show that many feel that most of this good news is already factored into current stock prices. Last Fridays surprisingly weak consumer sentiment report makes next Thursdays jobless claims figures even more important to reassure investors that the economic revival is still on track. This week's chart shows the continuing divergence between the UK & US markets. Surprisingly the FTSE is now in negative territory losing over 1% for 2004 (Green band) while the Dow has stormed ahead over 10% in the same period. This makes the forward direction of the markets very difficult to predict but the US 12 month chart is still looking very overbought with a downward correction to support well overdue. However I am very cautious after hearing how a couple of traders have lost serious amounts of money recently looking for this very move. The FTSE has now broken through its 12 month support but feels like a coiled spring. If the DOW continues to make new highs it may move higher very quickly to catch up. As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on the week ahead! David (Crocodile) David@SnappyTrader.com www.SnappyTrader.comAll the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research. |
Crocodile - 15 Feb 2004 12:10 - 3 of 15
| Sunday News 15th February |
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Manchester United Takeover Bid shares have made strong gains following reports that billionaire sports tycoon Malcolm Glazer is considering a takeover.The news has fuelled speculation that a bidding war is about to begin between Mr Glazer and other major shareholders JP McManus and John Magnier
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| SUNDAY TIMES BAE Systems Defence cuts hit Nimrod aircraft Barclays Banks recover a taste for the US Antofagasta's board is the pits Rolls-Royce Defence cuts hit Nimrod aircraft HSBC Banks recover a taste for the US Investor backlash may force Sainsbury to dump Prosser Rentokil exhibit arm gets offers ITV Initial Quiet assassin woos Dyke Royal Bank of Scotland Banks recover a taste for the US Eddington flies British Airways Europe back into black Pay row hits First Choice |
Man from the Pru talks Chinese Vodafone Blue chip firms make gains on Footsie Sharewatch: Shell Prosser's move to Sainsbury angers investors Directors' Deals: Anglo Irish bosses bank their profits Sharewatch: Psion Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Colt Telecom Vodafone boss puts reputation on line in US HBOS may acquire Australia Bank Vodafone move forces Cingular to increase bid |
| SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Emap chairman to head new paper Vodafone's 18bn bid for AT&T on knife edge Morrison to dispose of 132 Safeway stores Safeway Prosser 'has days to save his new job at Sainsbury' Morgan plots Canary Wharf bid Morrison to dispose of 132 Safeway stores |
City comment: vocal Vodafone Manchester United is between a rock and a hard place Is Glazer playing for possession of Man Utd? Canary Wharf Takeover Panel tackles Glazer over Man Utd Daily Mail & General Trust Berry and Mail unite |
| Taylor Woodrow: Shares in housebuilders have been held back recently amid fears in some quarters that a crash in house prices could be around the corner. However, analysts believe Taylor Woodrow is outperforming the sector and its full-year results on March 2 are likely to be at the top end of expectations. The group has successfully integrated Wilson Connolly, a rival housebuilder bought last year, and continues to acquire decent building land at reasonable prices. Buy at 261.5p. Reckitt Benckiser last week posted a 21% hike in pre-tax profits to 660 million for 2003, thanks to a strong performance from key brands including Dettol and Harpic. Chief executive Bart Becht is thought to have around 1.3 billion to spend on acquisitions. Managers have set a target of growing sales by at least 5% in 2004 and believe the group can deliver a double-digit percentage rise in profits. Buy at 1348p. Clinton Cards Valentine's Day has sparked a busy week at the greetings card retailer, but fears remain over the long-term strategy of the group. Fund manager fears that Clinton's expansion into larger 5,000 sq ft superstores has proved less than successful. It expects to see little growth this year so investors should sell at 83p. | |
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OBSERVER Shell rebels to press Royal Dutch for changes Record Royal Bank of Scotland profit to spark new bank row S&N browned off with Newcastle brewery Manchester United on 900m bid alert Amec confident of key role fixing Iraqi power Reuters Group Niall's never idle |
Terrorism fears fail to sway Shell Manchester United raider hovers to score Sainsbury A bitter taste in the City ITV zooms in on ad sales Manchester United Red Devils look to their commercial potential |
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MAIL ON SUNDAY Sainsbury turmoil over new boss, Hostile reception to Prosser plan New Look's Singh bids 699m, Fashion buy-out launched at last Grocer and banker head ITV race, Tesco chair and ex-BoS chief shortlisted Gates ready to bankroll Disney battle, Microsoft mogul plays Comcast kingmaker Asda signs up to credit card war, Store chain enters banking battle 6m tax threat to Phones4U founder, Caudwell faces bill over trusts Royal Mail heads for 200m profit, Union relations spark turnaround Ernie, Vodafone's forgotten hero, Legendary 'Silver Fox' goes to ground Ex-Equitable boss quits 'to fight ban', Headdon exits ahead of Penrose report No fat profits at Fat Duck, Scant return for foodies' favourite |
Russian tycoon to boost Corus stake, Place on the board looms for Usmanov BoxClever bids 'short of expectations', Alternate refinancing explored Numis dispute goes to the FSA, Incisive to complain over Centaur auction Euro threat to Bacs bank system, Push for pan-Continental network Oscar-bid Annie rings 1.3m pay rise, Album and LOTR song boost income French plot to topple Eurotunnel bosses, Investors want Bourguignon on board Currencies hit profits at Hanson, Puny dollar to knock 20m off firm Moneybox gets in gear for float, ATM group to be valued at 85m Cost-cutting threat to S&N breweries, Fears for historic Edinburgh plant |
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INDEPENDENT Vodafone backlash over $30bn AT&T tiltA high-risk, high-flying Virgin Atlantic is ready to give BA a run for its money The Week Ahead: Alliance and Leicester Laughing all the way to our banks? |
Rolls-Royce: Prepare to greet thy makers Vodafone 'That's another fine mess you got me into, Chris' Royal Bank of Scotland, Laughing all the way to our banks? |
| ITV started trading on the London Stock Exchange on February 2, since then shares have drifted and now could be a good time to buy, particularly for investors looking for a long-term holding. The advertising market is tipped for an upturn and there is also the promise of synergies from the merger of Carlton Communications and Granada. Buy at 140.25p. | |
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SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY Indigo Vision New life for former Motorola plant In brief BAE Systems Royal Bank of Scotland expected to set new record Vodafone Players maintain poker faces in bidding game for AT&T Royal Bank of Scotland can emerge from scrum 7bn to the good Hilton insists price deal will not hit brand |
Vodafone Big boys won't net you the best returns Belhaven Group Brewery chief says Scotland lacks leadership Unilever Big boys won't net you the best returns BT Group A new wave of confidence Runners line up for top ITV job Legal & General Big boys won't net you the best returns |
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INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy - Chrysalis (CHS), DFS (DFS), Coral Products (CRU) and Planit (PLN). Sell - LogicaCMG (LOG) and African Diamonds (AFD). Tip Updates: Keep Buying - Singer & Friedlander (SFL), Sell - Cobra Bio (CBF) and Ashtead (AHT), Fairly Priced - Moss Bros (MOSB). |
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SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Patsystems (PTS) - Buy, Fortune Oil (FTO) - Buy, Cobra Biomanufacturing (CBF) - Hold.Asos (ASC) - Buy, Eurodis (ELH) - Buy, Oystertec (OYS) - Buy. Six Little Winners: Bizspace (BIZ) - Cape (CIU) - Churchill China (CHH) - K3 Business Tech (KBT) - Martin International (MTA) - Oasis Health (OSH). |
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Sunday
Newspaper: Beware of these brokers,
The Financial Services Authority has issued a new warning list of 46 unlicensed
broking firms targeting investors in the United Kingdom. Ainsley
Consulting SL (aka as Mercier International Group), Amherst International,
BenjaminFisher SL, Berkley Murray Securities, Boska Settlement Corporation,
Braun & Bridgewater Corporation (aka BBGC Corporation), Breakthrough Venture
Partners, Capital One Management Inc, Carlton Birtal Advisory Services SL,
Chicago Board of Acquisitions Inc, Clarkson Gordon Ltd, Collins Tate &
Murchison, Dunhill Capital, Eurotraders, Fairchild Roth Financial Inc, Fernvale
Associates, Franklin Asset Management (aka Jefferson Management), Fridman, Koch
and Saul (aka Cambridge Global and Amherst International), Godwynn
International, Handel Ross Advisory, Harper Mills and Paige Inc, Harrop, Lees,
Brown & Co, International Business
Advisors, Kammer, Stuartt Reed, Kerona Trading Ltd, Liberty First Financial
Services, Lombard Grand Inc, Maxwell Fleming & Associates, McKenzie King Ltd,
Mercier International Group (aka Ainsley Consulting SL) / Mercier Asset,
Management Inc, Network Capital Partners, Oceanic Equities, Pan European
Investment Management, Pan Pacific Financial, Platinum Asset Management (pty)
Ltd, Platinum Placements Management, Premium Placement, Richard Watson
Associates, Richmond International, Spencer Ferguson Financial Services/Spencer
Ferguson Wealth Management, The Clarington Group, Thompson Weinberg, Tresaderns
& Partners SL, Van der Halen Equities, World Market Resources, Yee Seng Global:
little woman
- 15 Feb 2004 12:15
- 4 of 15
Thanks croc, needed my "fix" as this is going to be one of the last posts I'll do for a few day!
Crocodile - 15 Feb 2004 13:06 - 5 of 15
Melnibone - 15 Feb 2004 14:23 - 6 of 15
I don't think that you can call market direction at the moment
with any degree of conviction. There's too much going on with
Dollar exchange rate, Presidents week, US election year, new
US highs, falling FTSE etc.. etc..
It's just a general melee with nobody really knowing what's
going on.
I'll be looking at it very simply this week and may branch out
into Eurostoxx50/Dax/Cac and just follow market direction leaving
any preconceived ideas on the back burner.
I've tried to look at the basic levels over the last week and have
come up with some simple range trade levels. Top, Bottom and a pivot.
Possible breakout above or below the ranges.
Stoxx50: 2905 2875 2845
Dax: 4150 4090 4030
Cac: 3697 3667 3637
Ftse: 4422 4381 4338
Melnibone.
stockbunny
- 15 Feb 2004 14:24
- 7 of 15
Looking forward to results from RTR early in the week.
Could be a lifting week for banking shares generally with several 'big guns'
reporting - here's hoping!!
MLC later in the week may be uplifting...there's always hope! Sooner
or later the holiday/hotel sector has to start some real recovery!
Don't be away for too long LW - we'll miss you!
ThePlayboy
- 15 Feb 2004 14:30
- 8 of 15
R2 4451
R1 4431
PP 4405
S1 4385
S2 4358
Ftse closed above R1 and gained 4.9 in the auction, a sign for Monday? US closed so no doubt they will put it where they want CAUTION! 2 day ftse chart targeting r1 unless we brk 4400 to tgt 4385 Fri gap up area! All down to the dow to hold 10620 tonight
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4473
R1 4442
PP 4406
S1 4376
S2 4340
For next week I can see a pos test of 10500 on the dow if 620 goes, bearish ftse unless close above 4420, even then can only see 4450 as a tgt, weakness on dow will lead to 4360/70 being tested imho!
ThePlayboy
- 15 Feb 2004 14:32
- 9 of 15
Key DOW Levels for 2/17
UP Above 10,660
DN Below 10,600
Follow-Through
Dow follows through, ends near session lows.
From prior commentary, "...Look for a continuation pattern to continue to develop tomorrow. Such a pattern will indicate continued strength. Otherwise, a break below 10,650 will likely make for an even steeper decline..."
The Dow held above the key 10,700 early in the session, but was not able to sustain the strength for long. The index broke below 10,700, sparking a day-long decline to the Close, making for a 66 point loss for the session, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Chart.
Looking at the Daily Chart shows the index is beginning to move back down within the wide, sloping trading range that has formed at the highs of the major uptrend. Should the index break below 10,600 tomorrow, look for a continuation toward the lower boundary of the range at around 10,500.
Otherwise, an upside break though 10,660 could fuel another push toward resistance.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a tight, triangle consolidation at the lows of the 5 Minute Chart, which implies weakness tomorrow morning. Watch 10,620 down, and 10,640 up tomorrow morning for short term direction.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we covered Shorts this morning at 10,720 for a 20 point loss. We then entered the market Long at 10,725, but the trade also stopped out. A Short entry was also entered at 10,625, but the trade also faltered.
We are now out of the market and will watch 10,600 down, and 10,660 up, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P traded lower today, breaking key lower trend lines in the process. Look for signs of a continuation lower Tuesday. *
Summary
The Dow was not able to hold above 10,700 today, as the index broke through this level and traded lower for the day. The index will likely trade sideways at the lows before another move is seen. A break below 10,600 will spark a
continuation.
Melnibone - 15 Feb 2004 14:38 - 10 of 15
As posted last few weeks, I'm still looking for a test of
the 4330 area to try and see if we hold there or go all the
way back to the 4180/4200 area.
Just going to follow it, which ever way it goes.
Melnibone.
kantona - 15 Feb 2004 15:51 - 11 of 15
Crocodile - 15 Feb 2004 18:26 - 12 of 15
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Provisional Calendar For UK Equities The Week Following 23rd Feb - 1st March |
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Anglo and Overseas Trust (F), Bunzl (F), Hemscott (F), Jardine Lloyd (F), National Express (F), Old Mutual (F), Pharmagene (F), Provalis (F), Scottish and Newcastle (F), SDL International (F), Stadium Group (F), Ultra Electronics (F), Wembley (F), Provalis (I), Reed Health (I), Ricardo Group (I), Electra Kingsway (AGM), Phytopharm (AGM), Raft International (AGM), Treatt (AGM), Gladstone (EGM)
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Abbey National (F), Alliance UniChem (F), Amersham (F), Cookson (F), Croda (F), Dairy Farm International Holdings (F), Domino's Pizza (F), Kerry Group'a' (F), Molins (F), Prudential (F), Thorntons (F), Wembley (F), Wimpey (F), Xenova (F), Xstrata (F), Surface Transforms (I), Thorntons, Brewin Dolphin (AGM), Tadpole Technology (AGM), Berkeley Group (EGM) |
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Anglo American (F), Aviva (F), BBA Group (F), Domnick Hunter (F), Hardy Underwriting (F), HBOS (F), Isotron (F), Michael Page (F), Morse Holdings (F), Novar (F), Paddy Power (F), RAC (F), Reed Health (F), Spirent (F), TDG (F), Urbium (F), Wilson Bowden (F), Dickinson Legg (I), Isotron (I), Reed Health, Aukett Group (AGM), Capcon Holdings (AGM), Leeds Group (AGM), Aukett Group (EGM), OMG (EGM) |
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CBAE Systems (F), Belgravium Technologies (F), Capita Group (F), CryptoLogic Inc Com Shs NPV (F), Elementis (F), Estates and General (F), Hilton Group (F), MFI Furniture Group (F), National Express (F), Provident Financial (F), Rentokil Initial (F), Trinity Mirror (F), United Business Media (F), Domestic and General (I), Galliford Try (I), Ultimate Leisure Group (I), Wilmington Group (I), Cobra Bio-Manufacturing (AGM), M&G Income (AGM), |
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BInternational Power (F), Rank Group (F), WPP (F), Games Workshop (I), Vernalis (I), Newsplayer (EGM) |
Douggie - 16 Feb 2004 09:21 - 13 of 15
Crocodile - 16 Feb 2004 14:45 - 14 of 15
Very Nice 3 Day Intraday on the FTSE
Kinetickev - 17 Feb 2004 23:46 - 15 of 15
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