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Traders Thread - Thursday 19th February (RBOS)     

Crocodile - 18 Feb 2004 23:19

UK PreMarket Futures FTSE -4 DAX +8 DOW +18 S&P +2.5 Nasdaq +5.5

1 Day

2 Day

 5 Day

UK News

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Gold/Bond Pivots Markets  Futures Translate
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1 Day 2 Day 5 Day  US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei +76    Hang Seng -41 Asia News

DAX CAC  Euro News
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Diageo spirits group returned to profit with a 2% profit rise to 1.297 billion pounds and said it expected current trends to continue, despite an uneven recovery in Europe and north American markets was clouded by higher pension costs and a weak U.S. dollar.

Royal Bank of Scotland reported annual profit up 29 percent to 6.16 billion pounds from 4.76 billion a year earlier above expectations, on strong revenue growth.

WS Atkins expects its profits for the year to end-March 2004 to be "somewhat ahead" of the market consensus. "The outlook in all Atkins principal markets remains good," the company said in a trading statement

Hanson building materials posted profits of 319.7 million pounds down from 350.3 million pounds but ahead of analysts expectations of 311.9 million. This was after bad weather delayed projects in the United States where it earns about half of its revenues pounds Reed-Elsevier publisher profit rose 9% to 1.01 billion pounds from 927 million with analyst expectations of 976.5 million to1.03 billion pounds and said growth would be in the mid-to-high single digit percentage range this year.

Morgan Crucible engineer said it was raising 54 million pounds in a rights issue and would use the money to fund its recently announced "profit improvement programme".

ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
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Diageo (H1), Hanson (F) Royal Bank of Scotland (F) Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (F), Morgan Sindall (F), BHP Billiton (I), Reed Elsevier (F) UK RICS Jan house price survey (0030 )

Hewlett-Packard Q1, Target Q4, Genzyme Q4, Nordstrom Q4, PG&E Q4, Radioshack Q4, Wal-Mart Stores Q4, The Williams Companies Q4, Nextel Comms Q4, Univision Comms Q4, Ciena Q1, FirstEnergy  Q4, King Pharma Q4, Qwest Comms Q4

1.30pm  Core PPI, 1.30pm  Initial Claims

3.00pm  Leading Indicators , 5.00pm  Philadelphia Fed

Bilfinger Berger(F) Hugo Boss (I) DaimlerChrysler (F) SCM Microsystems (F)

TotalFinaElf (F)

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

Data

Calendar

US Zone

HTML Edit

Currency Calc

Crocodile - 18 Feb 2004 23:51 - 2 of 13

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Bullshare - 19 Feb 2004 06:08 - 3 of 13

morning all

ThePlayboy - 19 Feb 2004 07:11 - 4 of 13

Updated 2/18 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 2/19
UP Above 10,750
DN Below 10,640

Pull-Back
Dow pulls back off highs; still below key resistance.

From prior commentary, "...the Dow is holding beneath the clear 10,750 resistance level...we may see sideways movement at the highs until a break either way is seen. Such is usually the case after a big move..."
The Dow continues to hold beneath the clear 10,750 resistance level, as the index pulled back slightly of yesterday's highs, as seen in the 60 Minute Chart. The index declined 43 points, but remains within a wide range at the highs below resistance.

Look for the index to continue trading within the range boundaries of 10,640 and 10,750 until a major break occurs. A break from this range will likely spark a solid move in the direction of the break. A break through resistance will extend the current upmove, while a break below 10,640 will push the index back toward 10,500.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has broken the lower trend line that has formed beneath the lows of the late-day upmove, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. The break at 10,675 implies weakness for tomorrow's Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we closed Longs this morning at 10,706, giving us a 4 point loss for the prior trade. We later entered the market Short at 10,696, but were stopped out. We later re-entered Shorts at 10,680, but stopped out at breakeven by applying the Breakeven Rule. A 'whipsaw' day.

We are now out of the market and will watch 10,640 down, and 10,750 up, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ showed the most overall strength of the indexes today, while the S&P mirrored the Dow's weakness for much of the session. Continue to watch resistance tomorrow, using the level as a fulcrum. *

Summary

The Dow trended lower for much of the session today, losing 43 points by the close of the market. The index continues to hold beneath key resistance, which hints at weakness in the near term.


ThePlayboy - 19 Feb 2004 07:11 - 5 of 13

FTSE PP FOR THU

R2 4478
R1 4460
PP 4452
S1 4434
S2 4426


Ftse closed above Wed pp! Futs weak after close even with dow above 700! trendline across the lows could be a target for 4430 on Thu unless we brk above 4450 to tgt 65 again imho!

Crocodile - 19 Feb 2004 07:37 - 6 of 13

Morning all

Douggie - 19 Feb 2004 08:35 - 7 of 13

mornin all

little woman - 19 Feb 2004 08:44 - 8 of 13

Morning all,

Out this morning until this afternoon.

Where is everybody - on holiday?

I wonder if the FTSE100 will end the month up on the current price, or down?

Melnibone - 19 Feb 2004 09:26 - 9 of 13

Morning all,

No posts or trading for me yesterday. Fitted the new washing
machine. When you disturb 12yr old water pipe connections
the inevitable happens. Had to go and get some new seals
and PTFE tape.
Never mind, Mrs.Melnibone is happy again.
Can't say the same for the spider. :-)

FTSE seems on fire this morning. Wonder if we'll go for a triple
top above 4500 if the US comes good later today?

At least we're getting some movement at last. Still would have
been happier seeing 4330 tested on that last dip, not convinced
about this at all, but you have to trade what you see.
Snoball showed that with his DOW trades whilst the Bears were
getting their fur singed.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 19 Feb 2004 10:09 - 10 of 13

Took small profit on SHEL again when the FTSE seemed to stall
at 4500.

Taking a chance that even if we do move higher today, that there
will be some profit taking prior to the US open and the initial
1330 hrs US job figures.

Melnibone.

Fundamentalist - 19 Feb 2004 10:26 - 11 of 13

LW - when looking at profit to use for EPS/PE ratio basis, do you include or exclude exceptional items? Just I have had a difference of opinion with someone on this and would appreciate your views or anyone else

thanks

stockbunny - 19 Feb 2004 11:51 - 12 of 13

Curious isn't it?
MLC offer up some rotten results and cut the divi, which was
widely expected to do the lead balloon routine to the share price
if they did and lo and behold the price is rising not dropping....
Such are the strange eccentric motions of share trading!!!!

little woman - 19 Feb 2004 17:42 - 13 of 13

Fundamentalist - I ignore exceptional items as they are supposed to be one offs.

Although I will look at what they are and why they have occurred. They can be pointers to caution/careful management team, or a reckless one!
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