I am interested in what others think will be crucial long (or short) term thematic plays (ie the things that give the shares you fancy a real sweetener).

For example, in my understanding houses are at a shortage (not enough are being built, and demand is high) = buy shares in house builders.

Another would be that the population is getting older, so buy shares in things that older people require (zimmer frames, cakes etc!). Another would be that shares are rising (buy stockbrokers).

Yes, people need things that technology will bring but perhaps not at 30 or 50 times earnings.

I don't want people to trot out loads of different shares that they are trying to ramp (boring !)... please restrict your self to one sector and one share.

I will set the ball rolling : MCcarthy & Stone a builder of retirement homes (ie lack of property in the UK and appeals to the growing grey population). Also trades on a PEG ratio of well below 0.5 (represents good value long term) and pays a reasonable dividend.

Let's be having you!

Or perhaps Oil exploration companies since oil seems to be running out faster than expected and prices seem to be staying higher than expected (also the China effect). Any tips which oil co's to go for ??

Gallick

slightly confused, you ask for restriction to one sector/share and then do two yourself lol.

In reference to the first one MCTY, this has been a strong play on this theme for a while now. In addition to your comments, MCTY has no real serious competitor though lots of little ones are starting to pop up. They turn in a higher ROCE and margin than any of the volume builders and tend to have less problems gaining planning approvals, as well as having a strong land bank.

Secondly, a number of the volume builders have run their sliderule over MCTY as it would give them another string to their bow (for some of them there is a lot they could learn from how MCTY do business that would be transferrable to their own businesses). Certainly Persimmon have had a look and could still be interested - they must be making a takeover of some sort this year to fulfill there growth wishes and dreams of becoming the first FTSE100 housebuilder.

Finally, the old man McArthy still appears to harbour intentions to take this company back private for his two sons to run. He failed last year but the rumours are back that he may be in for another go.

the only downside appears to be rising interest rates and a potential housing price collapse - not a serious threat IMHO but one that will keep the upside limited.

fundamentalist

The reason I made a second post was to prevent this thread sliding into the ether never to be seen again!!
Thanks for your interesting comments re MCTY. IMHO there will definately be consolidation in the sector and that should benefit all construction/building cos. I think MCTY are reasonably insulated from the interest rate increases since most purchasers are trading down their properties to buy retirement homes and therefore do not need mortgages.