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Traders Thread - Wednesday 31st March (OOM)
Crocodile - 30 Mar 2004 22:48
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US stock markets managed to rally for the second straight session thanks to a small surge in the last hour. Oil futures soared after a fire at the third-biggest refinery in the United States which came less than a week after the U.S. FBI said it had issued warnings to Texas oil refiners about possible attacks to coincide with U.S. elections in November. mmO2 in a trading statement ahead of full-year results on May 18 said it expected earnings to meet a market consensus forecast of 1.34 billion pounds. Kesa Electricals said the prospects for sustained economic recovery in its core markets remained uncertain as it posted a maiden annual profit 202.1 million pounds. EMI is cutting 1,500 jobs, axing artists and merging record labels in a bid to save 50 million pounds a year at a cost of around 75 million pounds due to the job cuts. Clinton Cards said sales increased 1.7 percent in the first eight weeks as it reported a profit rise of 8.5 percent to 27 million pounds slightly below market forecasts. Moss Bros reported sales up 9.0 percent in the first 8 weeks as the firm delivered its first profit in four years of 1.0 million pounds in line with market forecastsMothercare reported a 4.7 percent rise in sales and improved margins in the first half was sustained throughout the year. They said its Direct and International businesses continued to perform well. |
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Charteris (I), Envesta (I), Aggreko (F), Baltimore Technologies (F), Bristol & London (F), Clinton Cards (F), Dana Petroleum (F), International Real Estate (F), Kesa Electricals (F), Moss Bros (F), Paramount (F), Television Corporation (F), Watermark Group (F), Wireless Group (F), Yoomedia (F), Mothercare (Trading) mm02 (Trading) CBI Monthly Distributive Trades Survey (10:30) |
American Greetings Corp Q4 Best Buy Company Inc Q4 Circuit City Stores Inc Q4, Bed Bath & Beyond Inc Q4 Monsanto Company Q216:00 Chicago PMI Mar 61.0 16:00 Factory Orders Feb 1.4% |
IVG Immobilien AG TUI AG Unilog SA |
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Ex Dividend: VDY Vardy (Reg) 5.20 587.00p, BIE Birse Group 0.38 14.50p, ARM ARM Holdings 0.60 116.00p, KGN Kensington Group 7.00 481.00p, NWF NWF Group 4.20 490.00p, AVZ AMVESCAP 6.50 417.50p, SHEL Shell Transport 9.65 357.50p, DGC Dobbies Garden Centres 5.40 467.50p, NRG Northern Recruitment 0.85 137.50p, BDH Brandon Hire 2.60 101.50p, BSY British Sky Broadcasting 2.75 704.50p, AHM Amersham 5.92 801.00p, DCM Dicom1.85 676.50p, LWB Low & Bonar 2.70 106.00p, DTM Datamonitor 1.00 118.00p, JLT Jardine Lloyd Thompson 12.00 531.00p, RCDO Ricardo Group 2.70 199.50p, SCTN Scottish & Newcastle 13.41 420.00p, SDM Stadium Group 1.95 79.00p, THT Thorntons 1.95 137.50p, RAC RAC 14.60 708.00p, URM Urbium10.00 580.00p, CPI Capita Group 2.70 302.25p, DGG Domestic & General Group 7.46 626.50p, LGEN Legal & General Group 3.33 97.25p, EXL Exel 16.80 714.50p, MGGT Meggitt 5.10 241.00p, ARI Arriva 13.40 380.25p, INM Incisive Media 1.00 130.00p, JSG Johnson Service Group 13.60 396.50p, MNGS Manganese Bronze Holdings 1.00 229.50p, WTM Waterman Group 1.90 79.50p, ROK Rok Property Solutions 4.65 399.00p, BPP BPP Holdings 9.35 344.00p, STW Staffware 5.00 595.00p, WGC Wyevale Garden Centres 5.53 366.50p, KGF Kingfisher 6.15 290.50p, TIK Tikit Group 1.05 137.50p, ELCO Eleco Holdings 0.38 32.50p, |
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| David@SnappyTrader.com www .SnappyTrader.com | Pre Market Futures | FTSE +11 | DAX +7 | DOW -20 | S&P -2 | Nas -3.5 |
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Crocodile - 30 Mar 2004 22:48 - 2 of 14
ThePlayboy
- 31 Mar 2004 07:12
- 3 of 14
Key DOW Levels for 3/31
UP Above 10,400
DN Below 10,300
Upside Break
Dow continues sideways, then gets upside break and rally to the Close.
From prior commentary, "...the Dow has begun to form another tight consolidation at the highs, which implies continued strength. An upside break through 10,350 will likely fuel such a move..."
The Dow continued sideways within the boundaries of the tight consolidation throughout most of the session today before finally getting a solid, upside break late in the day. The break sparked a sharp climb late in the session, ending in a 51 point gain.
The 60 Minute Chart shows that the Dow has now broken through the 10,350 resistance level, which implies a continuation higher in the medium term. Look for another continuation pattern to form to indicate further upside progress.
The index has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the 15 Minute Chart. A downside break of the line at 10,300 will likely fuel a move lower. Watch for overall strength unless 10,300 is violated.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the 5 Minute Chart. Look for strength above this line unless 10,360 is crossed to the downside tomorrow morning.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Long today at 10,350 and are still in the trade. We will continue to hold stops at the entry for tomorrow's market and will stay Long above 10,400. We will wait to enter Shorts until 10,300 is crossed to the downside; using 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each traded sideways throughout the session before finally getting upside breaks late in the day. Look for a continuation higher above the clear lower trend lines tomorrow. *
Summary
The Dow got the upside break late in the day, which fueled a solid push higher to the Close. Look for continued strength above 10,300 tomorrow, unless this level is crossed to the downside.
ThePlayboy
- 31 Mar 2004 07:15
- 4 of 14
r2 4430
r1 4421
pp 4407
s1 4399
s2 4385
Ftse closed above its pp on tue and gained 2.8 in the auction, looking at 4415 up and 4395 down for some sort of direction, cont strength on dow above 10300! Wed divs to take 7 pts off the ftse! Still bullish ftse on a 60 min chart above 4397 cash!
Crocodile - 31 Mar 2004 07:38 - 5 of 14
vasey
- 31 Mar 2004 07:50
- 6 of 14
Druid2
- 31 Mar 2004 08:35
- 7 of 14
little woman
- 31 Mar 2004 09:41
- 8 of 14
Druid2 - it's been a while!
Melnibone - 31 Mar 2004 09:57 - 9 of 14
Took a leaf out of TP's book and took a break last couple
of days.
Two of the trees in my garden are very old and getting weak
and dangerous. One of the branches fell off and narrowly missed
Mrs Melnibone's head as she was gardening. I like trees but
safety and people come first.
So armed with a handsaw, an axe and a set of aluminium ladders
I've been playing at lumberjacks. I've now got two 10 foot bare
trunks and Mrs M. can now garden in safety again.
The point of all that is that it's good to take a break now and then.
Recharge the batteries and regain perspective. I've got that tired,
but healthy, physical feeling of well-being that comes with hard
exercise and a job well done, and my mind is clear and focussed again.
The way I see it now is that momentum has gone out of the market.
The easily manipulated DOW has gone up nearly 4% from it's 10,000
lows but the FTSE is struggling to move much above 4400.
If the job numbers on Friday disappoint again, where's the buying
pressure coming from?
A lot of folk bought in near the recent yearly highs that are now
biting their fingernails, hoping that it will come back to evens
for them before the next round of terror attacks, which are sure
to come, tanks everything down again.
Even if we do crawl our way back towards FTSE 4550 and S@P 1160,
I feel further gains are unlikely without superb earnings and
job growth. What we have at the moment is well priced in at those
levels, and in the US, IMHO, over priced in.
Just going to keep it simple, play resistance and support within
intraday trends and try and keep flat every night unless it's an
index short position that I feel comfortable with holding.
Fund ISA buying pressure may give some good Blue Chip intraday
longs but I'm not touching an Index long with a bargepole.
This market is ripe for a fall and if an event happens it may
be sudden and swift. The market will move fast down, but only crawl
up, IMHO, so I know which way I want to play it in a market where you
can make money in either direction.
Melnibone.
Crocodile - 31 Mar 2004 10:02 - 10 of 14
Druid2
- 31 Mar 2004 11:06
- 11 of 14
Druid2
- 31 Mar 2004 11:12
- 12 of 14
Crocodile - 31 Mar 2004 13:57 - 13 of 14
jas007 - 27 Apr 2004 12:10 - 14 of 14
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