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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 5th April (SBRY)     

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 13:25

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UK News

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Day 2 Day 5 Day US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei +142 Hang Seng +55  Asia News

  DAX    CAC     Euro News

KLM carried 8% more traffic last month on increasing signs that International long haul traffic is increasing.

Sainsbury shares may rise on buyout rumours.

Marks & Spencer may say that growth has stalled when it reports Q4 sales later this month, Chief Executive Roger Holmes may have concluded that the recovery instigated by Chairman Luc Vandevelde has finished and further growth requires "radical change". Last week they announced they would shed about a fifth of its head office and financial services' workforce.

Brascan has extended its offer for British property firm Canary Wharf by six days until April 8

Carillion (CLLN) has signed a five year agreement with railway operator Network Rail for the renewal of tracks, switches and crossings. The contract, which starts this month, is valued at around 50 million pounds in the first year.

Balfour Beatty (BBY) has been awarded a number of five-year track, switches and crossings renewals contracts likely to be worth more than 500 million pounds with 113 million pounds in the first year.

ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
usf.gif United States (GMT)
euro.gif Europe & World (GMT)

 Burren Energy (F), Chaucer Holdings (F),

Havelock Europa (F), Zi Medical (F)

British Airways (Traffic Update)

08:30 Feb Industrial Production,Manufacturing Output

15:00 ISM Services Mar - 61.0

Koenig & Bauer (F), KLM (Traffic Update)

 Data Download

Calendar

US Zone

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Currency Calc

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Director Dealings

David@SnappyTrader.com    www .SnappyTrader.com  Pre Market Futures FTSE +5 DAX +10 DOW +12 S&P +0.6 Nas Unch

Tips & Recommendations

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 13:25 - 2 of 56

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United Kingdom - Calendar  5th - 9th April

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United States

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Europe & World

 Burren Energy (F), Chaucer Holdings (F),

Havelock Europa (F), Zi Medical (F)

British Airways (Traffic Update)

08:30 Feb Industrial Production,Manufacturing Output

15:00 ISM Services Mar - 61.0

Koenig & Bauer (F)

Bellway (I), Fibernet (I), Premier Direct (I), Corin Group (F), DataCash (F), Highbury House (F), Kiln (F), Regal Petroleum (F),

Wigmore Group (F), New Look Group (Trading Announcement)

ALCOA Q1

FR Altran Technologies (F) FR GPSP Grandvision (Q1)

James Beattie (F), Brammer (F), Kiln (F)

Huveaux (AGM), Rio Tinto (AGM)

EasyJet (Traffic Update)

Abbott Laboratories Q1

13:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar - 0.6% - 13:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar - 0.4% 20:00 Consumer Credit Feb - $14.3B

Carrefour SA Q1 Sodexho Alliance SA H1

Ex Dividend: Davis Service Group 10.60p (375.00), Provident Financial 19.90p (734.50), Pittards 0.50p (48.00), WH Ireland Group 0.75p (78.50), Photo-Scan 3.90p (118.50), Atlantic Global 0.70p (70.00), Pearson 14.8p

09:00 BRC March shop price index

 

Bank of England's rates decision

General Electric Q1, Supervalu Q4 M&T Bank Q1, SunTrust Banks Q1

13:30 Core PPI Mar DATE 0.1% 13:30 Initial Claims 342K - 13:30 PPI Mar0.1% 15:00 Wholesale Inventories Feb 0.1%

Clarins SA Clarins Q1 L'Oreal Q1, Zodiac SA H1 Bonduelle Group H1, Groupe Steria SCA(F)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Marshall & Ilsley Q1  

 

Provisional Calendar For UK Equities  The Week Following  12th - 16th April

JJB Sports (F), St Ives (F)

Associated British Foods (I), St Ives (I), Henry Boot (F), JJB Sports (F)

 Ex Dividends Alphameric 1.95p (83.00), BG 1.86p (327.00), Alliance & Leicester 29.60p (878.50), BBA Group 7.60p (255.00), Hammerson 11.17p (685.00), Friends Provident 4.90p (147.50), Rathbone Brothers 16.00p (745.00), SHL Group 2.50p (108.00), Bailey (Ben) Construction 8.00p (462.50), Britannic 10.00p (354.00), Broadcastle 1.90p (77.00), Fisher (James) & Sons 4.30p (312.50), SIG 8.30p (370.00), Concurrent Technology 0.25p (20.50), Edinburgh US Tracker 2.85p (471.00), Charles Taylor 4.93p (287.50), Clarke (T) 19.00p (551.00), Fairplace Consulting 2.10p (86.50), Graphite Enterprise 4.30p (238.50), Forth Ports 24.20p (1209.00), HIT Entertainment 0.64p (314.50), Pennant International 0.40p (28.00), Alliance Trust 35.50p (2586.00), Unite Group 1.67p (193.00), BHP Billiton 8.50p (507.50), CA Coutts Holdings 3.65p (113.50), Alpha Airports Group 2.80p (4.87)

DFS Furniture (I), Associated British Ports (AGM), Sage (Trading Announcement)

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 13:26 - 3 of 56

Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead  -  Sunday 4th April

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Last week all major index's finished the week with big gains. The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 2.5 percent, S&P rose 3 percent, and the Nasdaq gained 5 percent. In the U.S stroeaster.gifng jobs data raised speculation the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates as soon as this summer and sent bond yields sharply higher on Friday.

A further reminder of terrorism came on Friday with the failed bid to bomb a high-speed rail line in Spain and the killing of four American contractors in Iraq. UK companies accepting contracts there are in for a difficult time... Next week the U.S starts the new quarter with a few large players reporting such as General Electric whereas in the U.K only smaller companies take the spotlight.MondayBurren Energy oil and gas explorer that floated last December are expected to report sparkling first year resultsIn the U.S watch out for the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing survey barometer of the services sector.Tuesday

Bellway house builder is likely to post its eighth consecutive year of record results by posting interims at the top end of expectations. Over the last 6 months it has increased the number of homes sold by 10.4% and average selling prices by 6.5% on a year ago. Look for profits of 69m compared with 57.1m a year agoftse.gifHighbury House magazines (FastCar magazine and What Satellite & Digital TV) are expected a drop in profits to 7.3m from 9.8m last year due to tough trading conditions and restructuring costs.New Look clothing retailer make a trading statement after the very poor sales at Xmas. Look out for further news of the groups founder Tom Singh's attempt to make a bid for the group. Fibernet give half year results after a strong first quarter. Investors will be looking for news on when the company expect to achieve profitability.Wednesday

Rio Tinto's AGM will provide the main corporate news for the week.PHS hand dryers to office pot plants group said earlier in the year that it was on the lookout for further acquisitions after completing a 100m investment program ahead of schedule. The market is looking for a leap in profits to 43m compared with 36m a year ago. James Beattie departmental stores have been suffering from competition which may lead to a drop in profits from 7m to under 5 million this year despite new store openings.Brammer industrial bearings and chain group recently completed the sale of its telecoms equipment business Livingston for 9.9 million so it can now concentrate on its core business. Look for a rise in profits to 6.6m from 6m and news of further expansion of the business into eastern European markets. Thursday

UK March retails sales figures from the British Retail Consortium may give a lift to shares after the dire news from the CBI last week. Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee may well decide to raise base rates from 4.0 percent following the strong housing market and high consumer debt.

Thoughts

The market is set for a  slow down ahead of the long Easter weekend with few major results or announcements.

On Friday the US markets rose after the UK closes so we should see gains here on Monday morning. On the other hand we are at the top of the 10 day Intraday so I expect any early rise on Monday morning to be folloeaster2.gifwed by a fall back. Certainly I do not have much confidence in it either way but the further terrorism in Spain this weekend may further subdue the markets.

Over the longer term the S&P has managed to regain the 1 year up channel but we have just gone through the 500 day cycle which caused some market nervousness and led to the fall below the support.  This fall back and corresponding rise in March caught out many traders last month and led to many margin calls. If you had a bad month you were not alone!

For every one who posts to the thread we have 20 who just read it, if you are one of them please join in the BB and say 'Hello'

A good Easter week to you all

David (Crocodile)

David@SnappyTrader.com  www.SnappyTrader.com  All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.

 

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 13:27 - 4 of 56

Sunday Newspapers

sundaypaper.gifKohlberg Kravis Roberts is interested in making a bid for UK supermarket group J Sainsbury, the Observer reports, citing sources close to the New York-based firm

Economists are divided on whether the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will raise interest rates this week. Some commentators argue that a rate rise is needed immediately to cool the booming housing market. One of America's biggest ever corporate corruption trials has collapsed after a juror received a threatening letter. Tyco's former chairman Dennis Kozlowski and the company's ex-finance chief Mark Swartz were on trial for allegedly siphoning off $600m from the company. BP, A 450 million-dollar gas-fired power plant in Vietnam built and owned by British energy giant BP and other foreign investors was officially opened. House prices across Britain rose by 2.2% last month, according to Halifax, the country's biggest mortgage lender. This left them standing some 18.5% higher in the latest quarter compared with 12 months ago, it says. Russian markets are both exciting and risky. Russia, once a superpower, then a collapsed empire, is rising again. M&S They may be a little short of customers for their clothing ranges, but no-one could accuse them of skimping on head offices.

SUNDAY TIMES Red Sea rejects offer for Gresham Freeserve, BT French internet to invade Britain Tarnished headhunter becomes the judge of Glaxo's board Eircom employees will share 66m windfall LSE AIM's light touch attracts serious money from the main market Pensions scandal hits Mayflower M&S chief concedes more job cuts could be on the way Malahide secures four-star Hilton The Big Food Group, Tesco takeover is challenged Independent News and Mediaset to take newbuild office in Talbot Street

Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Topps Tiles? Cadbury Schweppes, Chocolate firms make dash for Easter profits Focus: Mayflower, The rise and fall of Emperor Ming Marks & Spencer Group Not such bright Sparks Directors' Deals: Carphone co-founder rings up a profit Motorway madness for Man U Should you buy shares in Independent News & Media? United Business Media, Citywire reveals secret City deals Sharewatch: Havelock Europa, An educated rise

Shell quits Spain and Portugal

Diageo has solid long-term growth prospects in Asia and Latin America and plenty of scope for brand extensions. It last reported operating profits of 1.2bn on half-year sales of 5bn. At 723.5p the shares offer a yield* of 3.6%, making Diageo look a compelling long-term bet. BUYGenerics Group technology consulting and investment firm announced plans on Friday for a 7.3m rights issue, without which it will run out of working capital by mid-May. The group has found cost-cutting tough and unpleasant, and it cannot inspire confidence after management took the company so close to the edge.  SELL
SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Courts sell luxury villa WPP vote on knife edge Fears for M&S recovery GSK lines up Roche bid Doubts on Ashtead Canary Wharf auction

WPP Sorrell's $80m Savoy showdown Mayflower Corporation How did Major get it so wrong? City comment: WPP Three in a featherbed romp Royal Bank's secret jet

Vodafone to cut red tape Mayflower set for grilling

Carphone Warehouse is expected to increase its marketing spend over the coming months, but the group expects connections growth to slow to 15% next year from 29.6% during the fourth quarter. It is a well run business, but with little prospect of substantial upside soon. Sell. National Grid Transco predicted last week that earnings per share would be substantially ahead of last year. Merrill Lynch has raised its earnings estimate for the group for the full year and says fair value for the shares is 510p. It should also reap significant rewards from the expected sale later this year of up to four gas distribution businesses. Buy

OBSERVER Reality check as high-flying BA execs go back to basics Manchester United chases 'retro' fans Wall Street 'barbarians' at Sainsbury's gate ITV champion backs 21m pay deal for ITV chief

LSE The times they are Exchangin' M&S: about to get a fillip? Legal & General 'We don't have the option of selling'

MAIL ON SUNDAY Cazenove, Queen's broker goes up for sale Thompson in line for top Camelot job Standard Life swamped by complaints Beano backs Waterstone 62m deal Sales chill sets in at Iceland Asil Nadir fights for his pension Mayflower bosses' pension safety net Shell chief 'had a private army' GSK and Astra building alliances, Drugs giants join the trail to India

Easter egg war breaks out in stores, Sainsbury's rolls out lower prices Ousted boss to swoop for PlaneStation Scottish dairy firm, Wiseman creams off the business Taube takes note of De La Rue Bellway set for Liverpool rebuilding, on course for 20% profit rise Tesco facing whale meat boycott, over sales in Japan Staff walkouts loom at Sainsbury

Bank on brink of raising interest rate, 4.75% expected by end of the year

INDEPENDENT  BP Oil giants boycott Iraq talks Chrysalis Group Overworked Ofcom is slated by the industry Mayflower Corporation Major loses 212,000

Centrica Overworked Ofcom is slated by the industry SMG Overworked Ofcom is slated by the industry  

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY  Mayflower Management buyout bid lined up to rescue TransBus Stagecoach Group Back in gear to battle for the buses Scipher Fife screen factory has saver Axis-Shield Scots directors invest 2.8m in vote of confidence in own firms BP stages some dazzling tricks as Shell takes strain Beattie to run with Leeds PR ball M&S Retailers take centre stage as City prepares for rates rise

Macfarlane Group Wrapped up with optimism

HBoS lends Cala 120m to fund development New blood has to make the grade at SMG ITV production company stands by its record Trade war trap for Wolfson Microelectronics Tepnel biotech relocates to Livingston

THE BUSINESS British Airways: global terrorism continues to weigh on airline but the company should be in the early stages of a cyclical recovery. Analysts expect earnings before interest and tax to be around 369m for the year just ended. Brokers Williams de Broe and Merrill Lynch have buy ratings on the stock, but Oriel Securities says reduce. Gerrard has it as underperforming relative to the sector, and says it is vulnerable to reductions in yields and passenger numbers. Bellway housebuilder is hoping to grow volumes by around 6.5% a year at higher margins. Broker Numis says the group's land bank looks strong, with up to five years worth of land, although the company itself estimates it has three years. The group, which is neither a niche player nor a volume leader, could also be vulnerable to takeover. Numis has a target of 840p for shares, which closed at 803.5p on Friday BUY

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Tips:Buy Bovis (BVS) at 598p - Antisoma (ASM) at 41p - Churchill China (CHH) at 207p - Erinacious (ERG) at 130p. Sell Manchester United (MNU) at 246p.Updates: Keep buying iSoft (IOT) and Kensington (KGN), Buy Monterrico Metals (MNA), Parkdean (PDH) is good value. Peacock (PEA) is overpriced.Company Results: Buy Oystertec (OYS) - Cape (CIU) - 4Imprint (FOUR).The Best of the Privatisation Shares: BAA (BAA) - BG (BG) - Scottish Power (SPW) - Forth Ports (FPT) - BP (BP) - BAE Systems (BA).

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy easyJet (EZJ) at 302.25p - Biocompatibles International (BII) at 207p - ATA Group (ATP) at 106p - XKO Group (XKO) at 85p.Updates: Buy 4Imprint (FOUR), Sell Telecom Plus (TEP), Hold Ideal Shopping (IDS).The Analysis Section: William Morrison (MRW) - Sci Entertainment (SEG).Further news: ITM Power is looking to list on AIM.

Zoltar - 04 Apr 2004 15:09 - 5 of 56

Hello.

moneyplus - 04 Apr 2004 15:43 - 6 of 56

Hello. I like to read this thread, very useful. thanks croc.

Melnibone - 04 Apr 2004 17:37 - 7 of 56

 
4600
X
X X O 4500
X O X O X
X O X O X 4400
X O O X
X X O 4300
X O X
X X O X 4200
X X X O X O X
X O X O X O X O 4100
X O X O X O X
X O X O X X O 4000
X O O X O X
X O X O X 3900
X O O X X
X O X O X 3800
O X O X
O X X O X 3700
O X O X O
O X O X 3600
O X O X
O O X 3500
O X
O X 3400
O X
O 3300

Evening all. Updated UKX PnF chart.

Very close to a 4500 triple top. Last time we were over 4500, it was a double top that set

a Bull Trap which resulted in 5 box reversal.

Rightly or wrongly, still sticking with my 'short the Index pops' with the occasional Blue Chip

Divi paying intraday long if a beaten down opportunity presents itself.

This strategy worked fine last week. Made sure I was flat prior to the jobs data and am now

waiting to see if the FTSE can touch 4500 before going short.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 04 Apr 2004 17:41 - 8 of 56

Croc,
I couldn't find the HTML editor on this thread.
Had to go back to Friday's thread to find it.

Am I missing it somewhere, or are you stopping putting the link
on the thread?

Melnibone.

hotwar - 04 Apr 2004 17:41 - 9 of 56

Hello. Very useful thread. Thanks.
What effect is the latest terrorist news from Spain going to have on the markets?

little woman - 04 Apr 2004 17:44 - 10 of 56

Evening all

Catching up with news as I have a busy week ahead.

babhere - 04 Apr 2004 17:48 - 11 of 56

Hello - Regular Sunday read. Thanks Croc.

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 17:51 - 12 of 56

Thanks Mel,
Missing buttons are back :-)

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 17:51 - 13 of 56

Thanks all for saying hello!

little woman - 04 Apr 2004 18:40 - 14 of 56

Pressed the wrong button! (edit)

Melnibone - 04 Apr 2004 18:44 - 15 of 56

Hi Testex,

Nice to hear from you again.

You're right, 'JR' Browne is still 'whupping' them. :-)

Been Spreadbetting the S@P last month.

Ref my CMC Cfd's, had some great opportunities for intraday and
overnight scalps with some of my favourite Blue Chip trading shares.
MKS, SHEL, SBRY, LGEN, HSBA. All took big hits and rebounded nicely.

OOM has been good with all the takeover rumours. Every time it dropped
below 101p I bought it, and every time it dropped below 100p I
'Filled my Boots'. :-))
I think that's the standard phrase used for ramping, isn't it? :-))))

Have a look at a 3 month GSK chart.
You can stick a ruler along it. (or should that read 'Down It').

Melnibone.

ringos_tar_2000 - 04 Apr 2004 18:58 - 16 of 56

Hello all.

This is a useful read for me on most days.

Thanks

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 19:20 - 17 of 56

Pearson 14.8p Ex Divi added.

supervisor - 04 Apr 2004 19:35 - 18 of 56

Hello croc, always find informative happy easter to all.

Diego - 04 Apr 2004 19:52 - 19 of 56

Hello and Good Evening all.

Diego

kantona - 04 Apr 2004 20:24 - 20 of 56

Evening all..croc as always ..thx for effort

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 21:52 - 21 of 56

Good to hear from you all!
D.
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