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Traders Thread - Thursday 29th April (SHEL)
Crocodile - 28 Apr 2004 21:07
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U.S stocks tumbled as traders bailed out investors bailing out on worries about interest rates and increased fighting in Iraq House prices in Britain rose 2.1 percent in April, the Nationwide building society taking it to 18.9% over the last 12 months BASF chemicals profits up 17% beating expectations, there seems to be good news throughout the sector. Shell have surprised the markets by announcing profits 25% higher than expectations at 4.25 Billion. They have also announced they are going to recommence buying back shares worth 2.3 billion pounds. ICI reported a 29 percent rise in first-quarter profits to 67 million pounds at the top end of forecasts as it continues to recover. SkyePharma: Delays in signing partnership deals for key drugs caused the company to make a big annual loss of 43.2 million against a 1.1 million profit last year. But they added that talks were advanced on two outstanding deals. Friends Provident reported flat first quarter new sales at 92 million pounds at the bottom of expectations, and said it had made 2 new deals to increase mortgage related business over the next year. Body Shop posted a 40 percent jump in full-year profits to 28.5 million pounds and announced a 100 million pounds expansion programme. However Body Worldwide sales of 699.5 million however store sales for the year fell four percent. Punch Taverns reported a 30 percent rise in half-year profits to 72.5 million pounds slightly above analyst forecasts and said the integration of its recently-acquired Pubmaster pubs group is going well. JD Wetherspoon reported a 3.7 percent rise in third-quarter sales showing a slowdown since annual sales were running up 4.5 percent Profits for the year could now come in at the lower end of analysts' expectations the group said in the third-quarter update. First Choice Holidays said it was confident about its full-year result helped by higher sales and profit margins in line with the group's expectations HMV's trading has remained strong since Christmas, meaning profits for the year will be at the top end of market forecasts It plans to open 30 new stores over the next 12 months. |
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Proactive Sports (I), Punch Taverns (I), Sportingbet (I), Shire Pharmaceuticals (I), Body Shop (F), Surgical Innovations (F), Vista (F), Atrium Underwriting (F), John David (F), Sportingbet (F), GlaxoSmithkline, Shell (I), HMV (F), ICI (I) Amvescap (AGM), AstraZeneca (AGM), Barclays (AGM), Scottish & Newcastle (AGM), Alvis (AGM), RMC (AGM), Tikit (AGM), Zotefoams (AGM) 08:30 BBA March mortgage lending data 09:30 GfK consumer confidence survey |
Dow Chemical, Exxon Mobil, Gillette, Duke Energy, Goodrich, Liz Claiborne, NCR, Nicor, Gateway, Eastman Chemical, 13:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. (2%) 13:30 Employment Cost Index (0.9%) 13:30 GDP-Adv. (5%) 13:30 Initial Claims (340k) 15:00 Help-Wanted Index (41) |
Altana, BASF, Bayerische Hypo-und Vereinsbank, Hugo Boss, Rhoen-Klinikum, Fielmann, Merck KGaAIDS Scheer, Suez, HAVAS, Peugeot, Aventis, France TelecomDassault Systemes, UBI Soft Entertainment, |
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jj50
- 28 Apr 2004 21:33
- 2 of 28
Fundamentalist
- 28 Apr 2004 21:39
- 3 of 28
thanks as usual.
I notice on the list of tomorrows announcement you are missing Skyepharma finals (SKP). For a LTBH like me, tomorrow is likely to be make or break (more likely break) though it may also provide some excellent short term trading opportunites.
Results for last year are expected to show a loss of 30m - 40m, though may be better if they have managed to include any milestones from recent contracts. On the contracts front, they have announced the Depomorphine deal but are expected to announce both the pulmonary deal and a third unspecified deal (these deals were due end Dec then end Mar but have been delayed). There is every chance that 0,1 or 2 of the expected deals will be announced as well as recent speculation that there could be a rights issue or additional placing announced. In mondays FT there was specualtion that the majority of the board could be sacked on the back of the deals not being signed. Speculation has even gone as far as that an announcement that GSK are taking them over could be jointly announced (GSK also have results out tomorrow)
On the back of all this there is likely to be heavy volatility. When the deals were delayed in January there was a heavy mark down which was recovered in a few days. The price dropped from 78p to 66p (intraday it went much lower 59p i believe) and quickly bounced back to 74p. This then dropped back to 60p before the Depomorphine deal was announced and the shares lifted to 70p. This has retraced back to 62.5p at tonights close (down 5% today). As you can see (chart posted below) that this becomes very volatile in and around news announcements and gives good short term trading ops.
IMHO the results tomorrow will be appaling, we will get 1 of the 2 outstanding deals and possibly a rights issue. If this is the case the shares are likely to be marked down heavily upon opening, but may then recover over the following days/weeks. FDA approval on the Depomorphine deal is expected next week (May 4th I think) which could give the shares a lift.
Any opinions welcome, Melnibone - are you still watching this one?
ThePlayboy
- 29 Apr 2004 07:11
- 4 of 28
R2 4605
R1 4565
PP 4545
S1 4505
S2 4485
Ftse closed below s2 on Wed and lost 10.2pts in the auction! Closing at sup at 4525, all down to the down to close above 10420 for signs of strength at our close was 10370, pos brk up on ftse at 4540 imho, if not cont weakness.
Updated 4/28 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 4/29
UP Above 10,400
DN Below 10,325
Downside Break
Dow breaks lower trend line, trends lower for triple-digit loss.
From prior commentary, "...The index held on to a 33 point gain, but is beginning to look vulnerable at the highs of the recent upmove...we could see a move lower tomorrow, especially if the lower trend line is crossed at 10,450. Such a break will likely spark a sharp decline..."
The Dow got the downside break of the clear lower trend line at 10,450 this morning, which sparked an extended move lower throughout the session, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The index trended lower the entire day, losing 136 points for the session, but further downside could be seen.
The Daily Chart shows the Dow has pulled back into the wide, sloping trading range. Look for the index to continue trending lower toward the lower boundary of the range at around 10,200. But first, we may see a continuation pattern form at the lows before another move occurs. Look for the Dow to consolidate at the lows while the index digests the current decline. An upside push through 10,400 will indicate strength.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line across the highs of the recent two-day decline, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Look for continued weakness below this line, unless an upside break occurs at 10,370. Such a break will indicate strength at the Open.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Short today at 10,396, but stopped out of the trade at the entry due to the Breakeven Rule. We later re-entered Shorts at 10,347 and are still in the trade. We will continue to hold 20 point stops for the trade and will stay Short below 10,325. We will hold off on Longs unless 10,400 is crossed to the upside; using 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each broke patterns to the downside, sparking a sharp decline to the Close. Look for continuation patterns to form to indicate another push lower. *
Summary
The Dow broke the clear lower trend line to the downside at 10,450 today, fueling a sharp push lower throughout the session. The index will likely continue trending lower toward 10,200, especially if a continuation pattern forms. Strength will likely enter the market above 10,400.
Druid2
- 29 Apr 2004 07:36
- 5 of 28
Crocodile - 29 Apr 2004 07:47 - 6 of 28
Sorry the news was a bit late but so much to get through this morning!
little woman
- 29 Apr 2004 07:54
- 7 of 28
zarif
- 29 Apr 2004 07:54
- 8 of 28
croc -remember in Le France Wine Is Cheaper than water.
rgds
zarif
all ready to "ski Down the Slopes Today"? or do we have to climb them first!!!
Fundamentalist
- 29 Apr 2004 08:19
- 9 of 28
Nearly covering the pain of the SKP results.
A quick precis:
losses 42m worse than expected. Neither of 2 outstanding deals signed but both in advanced discussions. one small deal announced. bond placing announced. share price initially holding up better than expected (though unable to place a sell online for more than 1000 shares may be helping). Basically more jam tomorrow - no change there for SKP. Disappointing but could be worse, though the share price is likely to suffer inj the short term imho.
Melnibone - 29 Apr 2004 09:36 - 10 of 28
I won't attempt a Welsh accent, my Allo Allo one was bad enough.:-)
Hi Fundamentalist. SKP results were bad, as expected. Depends now
on how much was priced in as to if the 58p support holds.
If it doesn't, 53p beckons, initially, which is another 5%+.
If only 1000 shares are allowed online then there can't be many
buyers about. I'm also a bit wary when a jam tomorrow company starts
needing to raise cash this far down the line. It's not as if SKP is
a new start-up company.
People who want their products know that they have them over a barrel
as far as pricing power is concerned.
On the plus side, most of the shares are held by a few people and
institutions, so ultimately the share price will depend upon them.
Melnibone.
Fundamentalist
- 29 Apr 2004 09:43
- 11 of 28
the price appears to be holding around the 60p mark for now. With respect to raising finace, the only positive I can draw is that it was for a relatively small amount and that it was placed via bond before announcement, ie not via a rights issue/share placing as i feel this would have had a more detrimental effect on the share price.
i think the support is holding because although it is jam tomorrow they have confirmed that the pulmonary package is for a greater value than previously expected and that they are in very advanced stages of negotiation (they should be after all this time). The next big hurdle is the FDA approval of Depomorphine expected next week.
With regard to the fact that many shares are held by few that also has the negative in that one of them, Dr Gonella, is looking for opportunities to sell, hence creating a possibly overhang of shares.
Still watching, still frustrated, still holding, still hoping for the jam tomorrow
Melnibone - 29 Apr 2004 09:53 - 12 of 28
STAN, one of my preferred financial stocks, is looking interesting.
It's back down to support. Needs to go back above 880p or we
are looking at 840p.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 29 Apr 2004 11:23
- 13 of 28
If I understand the above chart @ just after 1015 there is an "engulfing" buy signifying a change in sentiment to bullish. (See I did learn something at the Bristol Meeting!)
little woman
- 29 Apr 2004 12:32
- 14 of 28
little woman
- 29 Apr 2004 12:55
- 15 of 28
little woman
- 29 Apr 2004 12:59
- 16 of 28
little woman
- 29 Apr 2004 15:25
- 17 of 28
little woman
- 29 Apr 2004 16:12
- 18 of 28
zarif
- 29 Apr 2004 16:17
- 19 of 28
I was thinking the same -maybe Gd in the cafe is having a rave up party.
I managed a short and a long on the dow so far and am just thinking about shorting again.
Dow atm is finding 10400-10408 level a tough nut to crack atm.
rgds
zarif
little woman
- 29 Apr 2004 16:23
- 20 of 28
Zarif - who do you use trade with?
zarif
- 29 Apr 2004 16:27
- 21 of 28
rgds
zarif
ps: no phone call or "blue sirens" blazing outside the house from international equities who sent me a contract note for USD5200.
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