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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 17th May (OOM)     

Crocodile - 16 May 2004 11:03

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UK News

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Gold/Bond

Pivots

Markets 

Futures

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Day 2 Day 5 Day US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei +206 Hang Seng +97  Asia News

  DAX    CAC     Euro News

Stocks tumbled all over the world following the assassination of the head of the governing council in Iraq, political unrest in India and another rise in oil prices

Celltech Group, Belgian USB drugmaker has agreed to buy the company for 1.53 billion pounds, 550-pence-per share in cash a 27.8 percent premium to last nights closing price

BAA airports operator reported an inline 4.9 percent rise in annual profit to 616 million pounds following a record number of passengers through its seven UK airports.

MmO2 achieved market forecasts with a 59 percent rise in full-year core earnings and a maiden pre-tax profit, and said it was reviewing a payout policy for November.

Land Securities Europe's largest property investor reported a rise in net asset value, at the top of forecasts, and said it saw market conditions improving for London offices. Annual profit rose 16.7 percent to 373.1 million pounds , up from 319.6 million pounds. (Regus?)

LogicaCMG said it expected first half revenue to be around ten percent lower at its Wireless Networks unit, which would book a loss for the period.

Yell Group telephone directory publisher, said its full year net loss widened to 51.1 million pounds due to costs related to its initial public offering, as turnover rose 6.5 percent to 1.19 billion pounds

ukf.gif Calendar:  United Kingdom usf.gif  United States (GMT) euro.gif  Europe & World (GMT)

Abacus Group (I), Care (I), Countryside Properties (I), Enterprise Inns (I), SCS Upholstery (I), BAA (F), Business Post (F), Land Securities (F), Luminar (F), mm02 (F), Yell Group (F), Corin Group (AGM), DataCash (AGM), Fitzhardinge (AGM), Glanbia (AGM)

April CPI (08:30)

Deere and Co, Hewlett-Packard Co AutoDesk, TJX Companies Home Depot, JC Penney Staples, Network Appliance Corp

2.30 pm Building Permits 2.30 pm Housing Starts

IKB Deutsche Industriebank Medion, Techem

Data Download

FTSE Intraday

Calendar

US Zone

HTML Edit

Currency Calc

Dividends

Director Dealings

Broker Upgrades / Tips

David@SnappyTrader.com   www.SnappyTrader.com

Pre Market Futures

FTSE +10

DAX+26

DOW+39

S&P+4.1

Nasdaq+8.5

Crocodile - 16 May 2004 11:04 - 2 of 45

ukf.gif  United Kingdom  - Calendar: 17th - 21st May

usf.gif

United States (GMT) euro.gif Europe & World (GMT)

 Cambridge Antibody (I), British Airways (F), DCC (F), Mice Group (F), William Hill (F), Clubhaus (EGM), Yoomedia (EGM), Fulmar (AGM), GlaxoSmithKline (AGM)

RICS April Housing Survey (23:30)

Computer Sciences Corp Limited Brands, Lowe's Cos Toys R Us, Agilent Tech

Koenig & Bauer Hannover Rueckversicherungs United Internet  

Abacus Group (I), Care (I), Countryside Properties (I), Enterprise Inns (I), SCS Upholstery (I), BAA (F), Business Post (F), Land Securities (F), Luminar (F), mm02 (F), Yell Group (F), Corin Group (AGM), DataCash (AGM), Fitzhardinge (AGM), Glanbia (AGM)

April CPI (08:30)

Deere and Co, Hewlett-Packard Co AutoDesk, TJX Companies Home Depot, JC Penney Staples, Network Appliance Corp

2.30 pm Building Permits 2.30 pm Housing Starts

IKB Deutsche Industriebank Medion, Techem

Compass Group (I), BAA (F), Holidaybreak (I), Mitchells & Butlers (I), Aveva Group (F), LiDCO (F), Sainsbury (F), Baggeridge Brick (I), Scottish and Southern Energy (F), Freeport (EGM), Advanced Medical Solutions (AGM),  Amlin (AGM), Bunzl (AGM), Harrier Group (AGM), Rutland Trust (AGM), TT Electronics (AGM), Persimmon (Trading)

BoE Minutes of May 5/6 MPC Meeting (08:30)

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co ADC Telecommunications Computer Associates International Big Lots, Intuit

 

Ex Dividend: Aberdeen Asset Management 80.50 2.00 2.48%, Boot (Henry) 406.00 10.80 2.66%, Collins Stewart Tullett 425.75 5.25 1.23%, DFS Furniture Company 442.00 7.00 1.58%, Hercules Property Services 281.50 1.60 0.57%,hcape 1525.00 26.00 1.70%, Metnor Group 230.00 6.00 2.61%, Spectris 477.00 9.30 1.95%, Ted Baker 437.00 6.40 1.46%, Tullow Oil 101.50 1.00 0.99%, TT electronics 149.00 6.36 4.27%, UK Coal 138.50 5.00 3.61%, Unilever 528.00 11.92 2.26%, Universe Group 26.00 1.17 4.50%

Avon Rubber (I), RingProp (I), Babcock International (F), BPB (F), Findel (F), Glenmorangie 'A' (F), Imagination Technologies (F), Invensys (F),  London Stock Exchange (F), Luminar (F), Man Group (F), Mothercare (F), National Grid Transco (F), United Utilities (F), Sab Miller (F)Derwent Valley (AGM), Friends Provident (AGM), Graphite Enterprise Trust (AGM), International Energy Group (AGM), MFI Furniture Group (AGM), North Midland Construction (AGM), William Morrison (AGM)

April Retail Sales (08:30) DMO in 475 Million Sterling Offering

Gap, Navistar International Corp

Ciena Corp  

2.30 pm Initial Claims 4.00 pm Leading Indicators Philadelphia Fed

 

AttentiV Systems (I), Castings (I), Wolverhampton & Dudley (I)

Hilton Group (AGM), Lloyds TSB (AGM), Rotork (AGM)

April prov M4/M4 lending (08:30)April PSNCR (08:30) BBA April net sterling lending (08:30) BSA April mortgage lending (08:30) CML April mortgage lending (08:30)

 

 

Provisional Calendar For UK Equities The Week Following 24th - 28th May

Connaught (I), Dawson Holdings (I), Medisys (I), BSS Group (F), Detica (F), EMI (F), Merchant Retail (F), Prelude Trust (F), Torotrak (F), Uniq (F), Virtue Broadcasting (F),

RM Group (I), British Land (F), EMAP (F), Great Portland Estates (F), GUS (F), GWR Group (F), Marchpole Holdings (F), Scottish Power (F), South Staffordshire (F)April Motor Vehicle Production (08:30) Q1 Provisional Business Investment (08:30)

  Topps Tiles (I), Business Serve (F), Great Portland Estates (F), Homeserve (F), Pilkington (F), Protherics (F), Scapa Group (F), Shanks (F), Sondex (F), Q1 GDP First Revision (08:30)

Ex Dividend: Countrywide Assured Group 4.75p 3.55% 194.50,  Dickinson Legg Group1.50p  7.92% 25.25p,  Stanelco 0.01p 0.17% 5.87p, Dickinson Legg Group 0.50p 7.92% 25.25p, MFI Furniture Group 2.00p 2.41%157.75p, Mucklow (A & J) Group 5.40p 3.87% 295.00p, Axon Group 1.50p 2.10% 119.00p, Taylor Woodrow 6.50p 3.36% 265.25p, Taylor Nelson Sofres 2.05p 1.55% 193.75p, Keller Group 6.95p 4.52% 230.00p, Geest 12.90p 4.18% 499.75p, Premier Farnell 5.00p 3.63% 248.00p, Beazley Group 0.50p 0.78% 96.00p, Bloomsbury Publishing 1.68p 0.83% 259.00p, Aberdeen Growth VCT 1 0.57p  1.39% 41.00p, Huntleigh Technology 3.30p 1.66% 361.00p, Next 24.00p 2.50% 1402.00p, Smith (W H) Group 4.00p 4.85% 350.50p,  Henderson Far East IT 2.10p 4.58% 176.75p, Ocean Wilsons (Holdings) 10.63p 7.42% 157.50p, Panther Securities 4.00p 3.36% 223.50p, De Vere Group 4.28p  2.75% 435.00p,  London Securities 10.00p 0.91% 1425.00p, Nord Anglia Education 1.43p 1.82% 238.50p, Shiloh3.85p  4.12% 130.00p,

Celsis (F), City Lofts Group (F), Courts (F), Investec (F), Pillar Property (F), The Big Food Group (F), Young and Co 'A' CBI Monthly Industrial Trends Survey (10:00)CBI Quarterly Economic Forecast (10:00)

Fuller Smith and Turner (F), Plasmon (F),

 

 

Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead  - Sunday 16th May

We have a busy week ahead with fifteen FTSE 100 companies reporting dominated by the transport, telecoms, pubs, breweries and energy. These include BT, British Airways, mmO2, J Sainsbury and Compass Group. Mondayftsedow.gifBritish Airways has seen traffic growth improve since last year and the cost-cutting programme has led to an upgrade in their full-year profits forecasts to 200m from 75m a year ago. BA's recent traffic figures showed an improvement in premium traffic, which recently showed a 28% rise. Its announcement should provide an update on the effects of the rising fuel prices and lower costs on future profits.Tuesday

mmO2 mobile phones network is likely to announce good growth in Germany and revenue growth in the UK expected to be around 15%. Analysts expect profits of 300m compared to a deficit of 157m last time.Yell the international directories firm is expected to post a four-fold jump in profits to 196m.BAA airport operator which is seeing a steady revival in passenger numbers should report improved annual profits.Enterprise Inns is expected to report six-month profits of 95mWednesday

Sainsbury's the troubled supermarket group recently announced that told sales had slipped by 0.2%, so the market will pay close attention to the outlook for sales growth when the company reports its full-year results. These are expected to show profits of 643m down from 682m a year earlier. There are some rumours the company could warn over profits following price cuts to match similar offerings by rivals.Mitchells & Butlers interim profits are expected to come in at 175m.Wolverhampton & Dudley 6 months profits at should be around 32mPersimmon said in April that demand for homes had remained strong however some believe that the company is having trouble selling property at its upmarket Charles Church operation. This follows a recent warning by Countryside Properties over demand for expensive homes.Thursday

BT annual profits are tipped to rise to 2bn from 1.8bn a year ago, fuelled by broadband & 'new wave' businesses which grew revenues by 31% in the third quarter. The extra profits could results in a good dividend and share buyback programme. Currently worrying BT is the review by Ofcom into the UK telecom sector and whether the telecom giant should be broken upUnited Utilities annual profits are expected to rise to 345m compared with 327m after it released a trading statement in March saying it had performed in line with expectations. Important data will be the group's comments on regulatory reviews of water and electricity prices and the water review conducted by OfwatNational Grid Transco released an upbeat trading statement in April so profits are tipped to rise to 1.57bn from 868m a year ago. Mothercare last trading update indicated a recent slow down in sales and a possible tough year ahead. This is due to poor stores and increasing competition from less expensive competitors.

Fridayftse2.gif

Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries which operates a total of 1,600 pubs is expected to deliver healthy interim results Lloyds bank AGM

Thoughts

The market seems confused on direction with good economic news being offset by worries on terrorism, oil prices and news that inflation was set to surpass its official target in two years' time.

This weeks 'fun chart above' shows the FTSE / DOW 2 year chart tracking waves which are set for a longer term downtrend. On this the Dow has clearly got ahead of itself and could be set for a major fall down to 9600 in the near future. The FTSE is a much better fit to the 'egg' and should find some temporary support at 4200.

The lower 10 Day Intraday chart shows shows a wedge between the longer term 10 day downtrend and the small rise over the last 4 days. My guess is that the downtrend will prevail and the FTSE is set to fall at the start of the week below 4400.

As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on wish you good trading for the week ahead.

David  David@SnappyTrader.com www.SnappyTrader.com

All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research.

Crocodile - 16 May 2004 11:04 - 3 of 45

sundaypaper.gifSunday Newspapers  16th May

BRITISH AIRWAYS is slashing dozens of European fares in a dramatic new price war. The national carrier has knocked up to 30% off ticket prices on 38 short-haul routes from Gatwick to win back passengers from Ryanair and easyJet. Lowest prices for destinations such as Naples, Prague and Pisa have been cut from 99 return to 69 - including taxes and the new 2.50-a-flight fuel surcharge. Lowest fares to Venice, Barcelona and Madrid are down from 89 to 69.

Oil prices surged through yet another set of record highs today with Nymex crude set a record at $41.22 amid fresh concerns about shortages of petrol for the summer. The price is underpinned by strong demand from China, the shortfall in petrol supplies for the US market ahead of the summer holiday period and by fears of terrorist attacks in Iraq and Saudi ArabiaScottish and Newcastle find things are brewing up nicely in booming Russia. When they bought Finnish brewer Hartwall for 1.2 billion a little over two years ago, they inherited a 50 per cent stake in Baltic Beverages Holding, Russia's largest brewer.

SUNDAY TIMES M&S set to ditch British suppliers Over 150,000 customers quit BT every month BSkyB races to get Irish horses on satellite BA defies airline gloom with 200m extra cuts Pennon , Guy Hands offers 1bn for southwest water group Rebels seek to oust Jarvis chief Allied Irish Bank AIB targets top executives in forex probe Canary Wharf chairman to Reichmann: you're sacked Business Digest, Abbey National Business Digest, VT Group Allied Irish Bank credibility bank sees big withdrawal

Inside the City: John Waples: Back Morgan in end game at Canary Wharf

Sharewatch: BPB Quote of the week, Marks & Spencer Group Irish Agenda: Small appetite for C&C proves it was scraping the barrel Directors' Deals: Blacks Leisure boss rides a wave of success Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in McCarthy & Stone? Scottish Water under fire over BP contract And Finally ... Buckley should not bank on avoiding Allied Irish Bank gunslingers Sharewatch: Canary Wharf M&S snubs up to half its borrowers Agenda: William Lewis: Eddington leaves a marker for befuddled M&S Comment: Naomi Caine: High rates at M&S score low with customers M&S The quiet Americans who are key players in UK plc  

WH Smith, CINVEN, the private-equity firm, will this week enter the auction for WH Smith in a move that could push the eventual price to above 1 billion.
SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Man Utd clears itself Jarvis Norris hits out Collins Stewart, Smith's record-breaking bonus M&S Tullett Holmes' efficiency drive Mayflower Corporation , Greencool bids for Transbus Gent groomed as Glaxo chairman mmo2 moves into profit

Comment: Man Utd won't score an own-goal King cramped at Sainsbury BT engineers dig for treasure Why is gas so expensive? Centrica M&S's spring clean Avoid cut-price chairmen, BAE Systems

OBSERVER  Rose ruled out of Marks job BA cost review reaps 800m saving Sainsbury focuses on quality Trinity Mirror, Investors pressed Bailey to sack Morgan GlaxoSmithKline investors 'won't contest Garnier pay' London Clubs International, Viva MacVegas! Glasgow spins the wheel IP2IPO Grou Big carve-up by Evolution chiefs Eidos US hitmen target Lara's firm

End of the Piers show, Trinity Mirror 'I know I can't walk on water', GlaxoSmithKline Sly sorted out Piers. How about M&S? Trinity Mirror A scoop too far for Fleet Street's comeback kid 'I know I can't walk on water', Reuters Group Is there life after Sorrell? WPP Peers on Morgan, Trinity Mirror

MAIL ON SUNDAY Victory for pension victims, Blair's 400m rescue package BA slashes 30% off air fares, Price war takes on budget fliers Dividend hopes lift clouds at BA

New threat to petrol prices, Crude oil surges to record highs BA increases cost-cutting, 13,000 jobs gone in three years City hails mmO2 profit, Still waiting on the dividend

North Sea Oil, A fierce David and Goliath row is brewing in the North Sea amid calls for the Government to break the grip held by the global oil giants or risk deterring billions of pounds of new investment. Senior industry figures are concerned that BP, Shell, Exxon and Total - are sitting on fields to reap the revenues fuelled by the sky-high crude price and frustrating smaller new companies desperate to take over and search for more oil. Up to 30bn barrels are left under the North Sea and there are mounting fears they could go undiscovered as potential investors turn to other opportunities elsewhere in the world. This could have severe repercussions on the economy as the UK edges ever closer to becoming a net* importer of oil and gas

INDEPENDENT Sainsbury's sacking gives headhunter headache Standard Chartered forced to pull banking staff out of Iraq VT Group harbours desire for BAE's Clydeside shipyards

Never mind the performance targets - can GSK and Garnier deliver the performance? This is shareholder democracy in action, Trinity Mirror

British Airways 1bn fuel bill threatens to put cost-cutting into a tailspin

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY Trinity Mirror to take a hard look at itself SMG deals broadcast its commitment to television Shareholders split over who should run Marks & Spencer Mayflower Corporation. Trade buyer in battle for control of troubled TransBus London Stock Exchange, Aim on target to overtake main market

Scottish Radio Holdings profits to rise as speculation mounts over Emap bid Sly Bailey under pressure at Mirror as photos row continues mmO2 Mobile phone giant to reveal dramatic profits turnaround Weir Group's way is working but investors still want an acquisition

Scottish Radio Holdings SRH will this week announce an interim profit rise of close to 10% as speculation grows that Emap is preparing a bid for later this year.

INVESTORS CHRONICLE  Great growth shares: Community Broking Group (CB) - EQ Group (EQI) - Burren Energy (BUR) - Compass Finance (CAF) - Award International Holdings (AWI).Tips: Buy - Shell (SHEL), Keller (KLR), Media Square (MSQ), Sterling Energy (SEY). Sell - Somerfield, Ocean Power Tech.Tip Updates: Northern Foods (NFDS) (High enough) - Widney (WDNY) (High enough), Ben Bailey (BBC) (Buy) - Centrica (CNA) (Buy).

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy SDL (SDL) at 107p - Flying Brands (FBDU) at 196p - Dignity (DTY) at 252.5p - Hyder Consulting (HYC) at 147.5p.Updates: Hold/buy Earthport (EPO) - Sell Easyjet (EZJ) - Buy Sterling Energy (SEY) - Buy Fenner (FENR).High Risk Oil Share Portfolio: Burren Energy (BUR) - Cairn Energy (CNE) - JKX Oil and Gas (JKX) - Melrose Resources (MRO) - Sibir Energy (SBE).

David@SnappyTrader.com   www.SnappyTrader.com

optomistic - 16 May 2004 11:22 - 4 of 45

Good Morning Croc, it does look a battle between the two trends. Considering Political/Iraq situation I favour a small drop at least on Monday morning.
Enjoy a restfull Sunday
opto

daves dazzlers - 16 May 2004 14:22 - 5 of 45

afternoon croc,,intresting week for myself .
bt
sains
william h, and the current story with tsb,lets hope its true , regards dd.

Melnibone - 16 May 2004 16:06 - 6 of 45

X

4600

X

X

O

X

X

O

X

O

4500

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

X

O

4400

X

O

O

X

X

X

O

4300

X

O

X

X

X

O

X

4200

X

O

X

O

X

X

O

X

O

4100

X

O

X

X

O

4000

X

X

3900

X

X

X

O

X

3800

X

O

X

X

O

X

3700

O

X

O

O

X

3600

O

X

O

X

3500

O

X

O

X

3400

O

X

O

3300

Afternoon all. Update of the P&F chart. If we break below the recent low of 4395(?), I suggest we'll test

the 4300 area initially and then if the US continues its trend we're looking at round number 100 point

falls until we get a sentiment change. Needless to say, looking to short pops rather than buy dips. You don't

need to play the market both ways and I would not feel comfortable in holding a long in the current climate.

Swing chart is negative and will not turn positive again until we break back above 4600.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 16 May 2004 16:25 - 7 of 45

graph.php?startDate=16%2F02%2F04&period=

Swing chart is showing a last lower swing high and we now seem to be
struggling to try and put in a swing low. We are at the same undecided point
that we were at in March before the drop to below 4300. I feel that any
move higher from here will treated as a sell as soon as we break the previous
day's low. I'm waiting for that, or a break of the last low that takes us
into 4380's. Which ever comes first.

Some market watchers are suggesting some further rises before we drop.
Some are even predicting a 1987 style crash.
Some suggest we just consolidate in this range and then move to new
highs for the year.

So between them they've just about covered all eventualities. :-)
What a surprise. :-))

Down to each of you as individuals, really.
Nothing changes, does it.
With a bit of luck, some of you LTBH'ers will get some of the buy entry
points that you dream for.

Melnibone.

angi - 16 May 2004 17:57 - 8 of 45

Afternoon Croc
Dave, what's the story about tsb?

daves dazzlers - 16 May 2004 19:14 - 9 of 45

evening angi, regards tsb,well headlines in sunday express{financial}.
citigroup,the worlds largest bank,has stepped up its search for a uk banking acquisition by considering a tie up with lloyds tsb,,,,as you no not everything you read is true,but remember mr eric d like`s,,,BIGGER and better,lets hope so regards dave..

Crocodile - 16 May 2004 21:36 - 10 of 45

Thanks Melnibone, Good work.
D.

Crocodile - 17 May 2004 07:35 - 11 of 45

Morning all

zarif - 17 May 2004 07:40 - 12 of 45

morning croc and all.

jj50 - 17 May 2004 07:58 - 13 of 45

morning croc and all

little woman - 17 May 2004 08:25 - 14 of 45

Morning all

Page 2 in the Financial Mail on Sunday has a article titled "Markets close to collapse"

The middle of the article goes on to say "one expert warned starkly that the similarity between recent US share price movements and the weeks before the crash of 1987 was 'uncanny'.

Insider trader - 17 May 2004 08:26 - 15 of 45

Morning all.

little woman - 17 May 2004 08:28 - 16 of 45

Insider trader - it's been a while - nice to see you back.

little woman - 17 May 2004 08:40 - 17 of 45

Just took a looke at the FTSE100 heat map all the shares are down except for 4 that are unchanged!

Insider trader - 17 May 2004 09:01 - 18 of 45

Good buying ops imo.

Melnibone - 17 May 2004 09:12 - 19 of 45

Morning all,

The bombings have skewed everything. Huge gap open down in
the US at these levels. Shock factor will have worn off by the
the time the US opens.

Agree with Insider trader. We are due a bounce at the least as
Bears take profits and bottom fishers cast their nets. Don't
know how far we bounce.
Should be some good trading opportunities here.

Melnibone.

little woman - 17 May 2004 09:41 - 20 of 45

I presume you are both refering to very short term opportunities? (i.e between now and the US opening?)

Insider trader - 17 May 2004 09:44 - 21 of 45

When there's blood on the streets......when everyone and his dog is shorting, is always the best time to look for...
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