My thanks to Seymour Clearly for this week's terrific Thoughter's piece. A really good read.

Some other thoughts for the week ahead....

Recruitment specialist Harvey Nash recently said trading had been "robust" in H1 and that profits would be substantially ahead of expectations. It is one of the first recruitment companies to indicate a recovery in Europe and is benefiting from cost reductions, as well as weakened competition from rivals such as Adecco.

Earlier this year it reported strong trading levels in both its US and UK businesses, adding that it was pleased with the successful integration of its recently-acquired US businesses.

Cazenove is expecting interim pre-tax profits of 1.5m before goodwill and exceptionals when Harvey Nash releases results on Monday, against 100,000 last time.

Gym operator, LA Fitness is expected to post full year pre-tax profits before exceptionals of 8.7m next Wednesday, against 7.2m, according to consensus forecasts. The company turned in record profits and turnover for the half year, despite a shift among value-conscious consumers to take short, sharp workouts, rather than treating visits to fitness clubs as leisurely days out.

LA Fitness later said that trading in the second half was in line with expectations and reflected the continued demand for membership and the strength of its position in the health and fitness market.

Body Shop International will be under pressure on Thursday to show that its troublesome UK business is improving after two years in which the domestic arm has been a drag on profits.

The company has performed better overseas with the Asia Pacific region seen as its driving force; a factor set to be lifted further by the recent decision to buy most of Body Shop's franchised business in Hong Kong.

Body Shop is also investing around 100m in stores and information technology, although the half-year results will come too early to reflect the impact of this three-year programme. Profits are set to be similar to last year at 10m.

Happy trading!

G.

AFX UK at a glance share guide
AFX


MARKETS

FTSE 100 4,698.9 up 0.2

FTSE 250 6,379.5 down 4.6

DJIA 10,055.20 down 70.2

Nasdaq Comp 1,919.97 down 28.55

S&P 500 1,122.14 down 8.51

Gold 422.62 usd (418.67 usd)

Oil - Brent Nov 49.71 usd (48.90 usd)



BREAKING NEWS - WEEKEND

* J SAINSBURY poised to slash its dividend and to reinvest the proceeds

in improving the quality of its food and cutting prices; the company has

decided to reduce the 300 mln stg cost of its dividend by around 150 mln

stg - Sunday Telegraph

* Justin King, the recently appointed chief executive of J SAINSBURY,

will tell beleaguered shareholders that he plans to focus on boosting

sales - not cutting costs and improving profits - Sunday Times

* Financial Services Authority looking into a possible case of

selective disclosure by J SAINSBURY after a Merrill Lynch note said the

group had 'helpfully pointed out' that the bank's forecast for

first-half profits was much too high - Saturday FT

* Financial Services Authority informally warns SAINSBURY it must put

an end to fevered speculation about its performance, ahead of new chief

executive Justin Spring's statement to investors on Oct 19 - The

Business

* J SAINSBURY to shed around a quarter of its head office jobs,

affecting up to 750 staff - Sunday Express

* Luke Mayhew, the widely-respected managing director of John Lewis,

will announce this week that he is to quit the company - Sunday Times

* Malcolm Glazer faces a last-minute challenge to his expected 800 mln

stg bid for MANCHESTER UNITED from Keith Harris, chairman of brokerage

Seymor Pierce and a lifelong fan of the Old Trafford club; Harris hopes

to persuade Irish racing barons John Magnier and JP McManus to sell

their crucial 29 pct stake in United to him, but he still needs

financial backing - Observer

* JP Morgan, the US bank, secures financing for a 300 pence-a-share

takeover offer for MANCHESTER UNITED by Malcolm Glazer - Sunday

Telegraph

* MANCHESTER UNITED's biggest shareholders, the racing tycoons John

Magnier and JP McManus, prepared to sell at 310 pence a share to Malcolm

Glazer, the American businessman who is stalking the club - Sunday Times

* JP McManus and John Magnier to reject Malcolm Glazer's 300 pence per

share offer for their 29.9 pct stake in MANCHESTER UNITED - Independent

on Sunday

* Glazer set to seize control of MANCHESTER UNITED; crucial weekend as

Irish tycoons weigh up 790 mln stg offer - Mail on Sunday

* Malcolm Glazer, the US sports tycoon eyeing MANCHESTER UNITED,

approaches the two Irish racing millionaires who are the club's largest

shareholders with a view to purchasing their stake; it is believed JP

McManus and John Magnier, who own 29 pct of United, will be offered up

to 300 pence a share - Saturday FT

* Steve Morgan, the property tycoon, preparing to invest up to 100 mln

stg in Liverpool Football Club as part of a complex cash injection that

could result in his becoming chairman - Sunday Times

* Thomson, the French technology group, planning a bid for ITV's cinema

advertising business, Carlton Screen Advertising, which is valued at 120

mln stg - Mail on Sunday

* JP Morgan to pay just 100 mln stg for a 50 pct stake in Cazenove; the

US bank will lend a further 300 mln to Cazenove, so that it can make

substantial payments to its shareholders - Sunday Telegraph

* FSA to probe fraud charge against Santander chief Emilio Botin before

it approves the bank's 8.5 bln stg takeover of ABBEY NATIONAL - Observer

* BSKYB's plan for a share buyback that would increase the stake held

in the satellite broadcaster by News Corp faces possible defeat,

according to a number of its leading independent shareholders - Saturday

Independent

* The global trade war brewing over subsidies for aircraft threatens

to escalate later this month when Bombardier, the Canadian aerospace

company, becomes the latest manufacturer to apply for state aid to

launch a new commercial airliner - The Business

* Carlyle Group, the US private equity company with close links to the

White House, has held high-level talks with the Ministry of Defence over

its plans to buy up and revitalise the UK's shipyards - Sunday Express

* Russian tycoon and Chelsea Football Club owner Roman Abramovich

understood to be in pole position to take control of the Jaguar F1

racing team being sold by its American owner Ford - Sunday Express

* WH SMITH set to unveil a 35 pct drop in full-year profits this week,

sparking fresh bid interest from private equity bidders led by Permira -

The Business

* AMEC clinches a major deal - worth up to 50 mln usd - with a top-tier

global oil company - thought to be ExxonMobil - Sunday Express

* TUC urges its network of more than 1,000 pension fund trustees to

vote against the remuneration report of rail maintenance group JARVIS at

this week's AGM - Mail on Sunday

* GLAXOSMITHKLINE investing millions of pounds on a research facility

in Singapore as it faces threats of violence and intimidation from

animal rights campaigners in Britain - Saturday Mail

* Government to consider raising the retirement age as two influential

reports call this week for it to be moved beyond 65 to help solve

Britain's growing pensions crisis - Independent on Sunday

* Companies to be urged to link pension-scheme pay-outs to life

expectancy in a report by the Independent Pensions Commission, set up by

the government to review long-term savings - Saturday FT

* Richard Bowker, the former chairman of the Strategic Rail Authority,

was the victim of a Whitehall coup to oust him from the running of

Britain's railways, according to senior figures in the industry - Sunday

Express

* US generated only 96,000 jobs last month, heightening fears the

economy may again run out of steam and providing ammunition for John

Kerry, the Democratic challenger, as the presidential campaign enters

its final weeks - Saturday FT

* Consortium led by STANDARD CHARTERED wins a controlling stake in

Indonesia's Bank Permata with a bid of 171 mln stg

* TESCO planning to take its Florence & Fred and Cherokee clothing

brands international next year after achieving dramatic growth in the UK

- Saturday Times

* Saddam Hussein's regime held money in an HSBC branch in Jordan and

used it as part of a network to evade sanctions, a US report says -

Saturday FT

* Russia armed Iraq on eve of war - The Business

* BRITISH AIRWAYS and VIRGIN ATLANTIC increasing fuel surcharges on

their long-haul fares for the second time in two months in response to

the continuing increase in the price of oil - Saturday FT

* David Whelan, founder of JJB SPORTS, expected to confirm this week

that he is prepared to sell his 40 pct stake in the British sportswear

chain, paving the way for private equity group Cinven to launch a formal

takeover bid - The Business

* Former Selfridges boss Peter Williams a leading candidate to front

buyout specialist Cinven's attempted purchase of JJB SPORTS - Sunday

Express

* LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton and Pernod Ricard emerge as the

front-runners for GLENMORANGIE - Saturday FT

* LVMH may seize GLENMORANGIE from under the noses of Pernod Ricard and

Bacardi after pledging to avoid cutting jobs at the Scottish bottling

plant; LVMH is the only bidder which would keep the Broxburn plant open

- The Business

* WHITEHEAD MANN comes under pressure to put itself up for sale or

ditch its chief executive Stephen Lawrence after the headhunter issued a

profits warning this week - Saturday FT

* Shares in CORIN GROUP shoot up 20 pct after the artificial hip maker

reveals it has been approached by what is thought to be an industry

rival eager to get hold of its hip resurfacing product

* MONSTERMOB soars after Sir David and Sir Frederick Barclay spend 1.72

mln stg, taking a 7.55 pct stake

* SOMERFIELD front-runner to buy 120 small Safeway stores from WILLIAM

MORRISON SUPERMARKETS in a deal that could be worth 400 mln stg to 600

mln - Saturday Mail



SATURDAY PRESS COMMENT

FT

THE LEX COLUMN comments on General Electric (while GE shared the

weather-related pain, the company's overall optimism strikes a more

confident note than US business leaders venture these days; GE still

expects double-digit earnings growth next year and its strong orders

growth underpins the company's claim to 'excellent momentum'), J

SAINSBURY (Justin King, the new chief executive, must squeeze more

juice from Sainsbury's stores; history suggests it could be a fruitless

task), Australian economy, Procter & Gamble (trades at 21 times earnings

for fiscal 2005, excluding the sizeable economic costs of its options

programme; this leaves its shares looking more like a placebo than a

cure for investor anxiety) - Weekend share watch: PETREL RESOURCES

(success in Iraq remains far from certain), ASIA ENERGY (analysts

suggest the current price does not reflect the risks; the company will

need to raise large amounts of debt and equity to bring the Phulbari

project into production and this could require a deal with a larger

partner), BAGGERIDGE BRICK (trading at around 10.8 times 2005 estimates,

a not unreasonable price for a tidily run company, and possibly on the

low side in light of potential acquisition activity)



Independent

No Pain, No Gain: Derek Pain comments on PAN ANDEAN RESOURCES (any

investor seeking a more long-term investment could do worse than descend

on PAR), OFEX (I believe, as with PAR, the Ofex story will continue; but

the shares, which looked attractive, are now for the brave) - MAN GROUP

(rumours it has agreed a 1,850 pence-a-share takeover by Merrill Lynch)

- EMPIRE INTERACTIVE (word has it that 3I and New Star Asset Management

have taken maiden stakes)



Guardian

MOSS BROS speculation that a new investor has approached Kevin

Stanford, the co-founder of Karen Millen and the gents' outfitter's

biggest shareholder, to buy his stake; traders say the investor is

willing to pay 115 pence a share) - MAN GROUP (talk of 1,850

pence-a-share bid from Merrill Lynch) - ROXBORO (talk of strong trading)

- ALLERGY THERAPEUTICS (expected to enjoy a strong market debut next

week)



Telegraph

COUNTRYSIDE PROPERTIES (speculation that chairman and founder Alan

Cherry may shortly table an offer around 300 pence a share) - PURSUIT

DYNAMICS (hopes that a steady flow of contract wins will be unveiled

shortly; it is thought a deal with GREENE KING could be on the cards) -

VIROTECH INTERNATIONAL (could be a bid target, possibly for a mining

group) - QUESTOR COLUMN: RENTOKIL INITIAL (dividend hike forecast offers

some comfort during McGowan's tough turnaround, but not enough to

warrant buying the shares), ISIS (a little too pricey to get involved

with at the moment), PRIMARY HEALTH PROPERTIES (looks healthy enough to

hang on to)



Times

SCOTTISH & NEWCASTLE (speculation that Russia will push through a a

proposed ban on outdoor drinking) - KINGFISHER (concerns that problems

with the new fulfilment system at its Screwfix operation still persist)

- COUNTRYSIDE PROPERTES (talk that a quoted property services company is

building a stake through a nominee, raising the prospect of a competing

offer) - SEVERFIELD-ROWEN (three directors sell 263,000 shares at

471-1/4 pence) - Tempus: Crossed (chart) lines that can be golden for

investors; stocks at, or near, the cusp of a golden cross are: HAYS,

KINGFISHER, ALLIED DOMECQ, DAILY MAIL & GENERAL TRUST, REED ELSEVIER,

NORTHERN ROCK, HANSON, MM02, FRIENDS PROVIDENT, LEGAL & GENERAL,

BARCLAYS, STANDARD CHARTERED; if there is a stock to sell, or short

sell, because of the appearance of a dead cross, J SAINSBURY fits the

bill - STOCKWATCH: MONEYBOX (if you are fed up with paying to take money

out of your local cash machine, investing in Moneybox might help you to

turn the tables on your tormentor; if Moneybox - recently approached

about a possible takeover - does go private, SCOTT TOD and CARDPOINT are

other quoted rivals that could make a good play in this market) - SHARE

OF THE MONTH: Stella Shamoon buys Toyota



Mail

BARCLAYS (rumours of a Citigroup bid refuse to go away) - 2 TRAVEL

GROUP (debt woes mean directors have stumped up 1.6 mln stg of emergency

working capital) - INVESTMENT EXTRA: ABBEY NATIONAL (If you can bear the

tax red tape, stay aboard Santander), ENNSTONE (cheap)



Express

WHITBREAD (analysts play down hopes of radical action by new chief

executive Alan Parker) - WARTHOG (big seller cleared out) - SPORTS

NETWORK (dealers suggest it could make about 1 mln stg from British

heavyweight Danny Williams's next fight) - CES SOFTWARE (traders latch

on the potential value of its 24 pct stake in European betting exchange

betbull, which is listing on the Vienna Stock Exchange) - ALLTRUE

INVESTMENTS (speculation a major acquisition is looming) - WHO'S

DEALING: HIGHWAY INSURANCE (director David Barker takes maiden stake of

25,000 shares at 32-3/4 pence) - SHARE WHISPER: CELTIC RESOURCES

(suggestions that a positive gold drilling report from its Russian

venture is imminent) -BROKER'S VIEW: XANSA (Altium Securities cuts

rating to reduce)



SUNDAY PRESS COMMENT

FUND OF THE MONTH: HENDERSON ELECTRIC & GENERAL (if performance is as

we expect, the shares are likely to trade at a premium to the sector as

a whole) - MID-CAP INVESTOR: OTTAKAR'S (long-term buy) - AIM INVESTOR:

ERINACEOUS (trades at a discount to CONNAUGHT and MEARS GROUP; covering

brokers Collins Stewart and Bridgewell Securities think the shares could

nearly double to 250 pence over the next two years) - BENCHMARK: Grant

Clelland comments on Standard Life (Standard's top-up turnaround could

prove wise), proposed merger between Gazprom/Rosneft, Google (one of its

challenges is how to keep thousands of its soon-to-be immensely wealthy

workers from cashing out and moving on)



Sunday Times

The Andrew Davidson Interview: ARRIVA chief says drive into Europe is

just the ticket. Bob Davies saw stock in his bus and train group hit a

five-year high last week. Is his growth strategy working or are the

predators circling? (BUSINESS p. 13) - JUDGMENT DAY: SHOULD YOU BUY

SHARES IN JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON? Andy Brough, fund manager at

Schroders, says buy at about 425 pence; Tim Steer, fund manager at New

Star, says take a calculated risk and buy - INSIDE THE CITY: John

Waples comments on COMPASS (shares will recover, but it is going to be a

long haul), ASIA ENERGY (as ever with such shares, it is a case of

measuring capital risk against reward) - MARKET MOLE: WILSON BOWDEN (New

Star's Stephen Whittaker picked up 114,000 shares for the UK Growth

fund, which took its holding to 0.3 pct) - DIRECTORS' DEALS: REG VARDY

(Peter Vardy splashes out 219,000 stg on 50,000 shares, just five days

after he spent 1.25 mln stg to buy nearly 300,000 shares at 430 pence,

taking his total holding to almost 25 pct) - Why buybacks may be your

signal to buy; companies that return cash to investors by buying back

their own shares usually go on to beat the market (VODAFONE, NEXT,

INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS, GUS, DIXONS- MONEY p.7)



Observer

THROG STREET: BAE SYSTEMS (as Boeing found out last year, a criminal

investigation (albeit in that case domestic) generally leads to a

rolling of heads, and a spanking from the amoral marketplace for getting

caught; will the UK follow where America has led?), ALLERGY THERAPEUTICS

(this will be worth watching)



Sunday Telegraph

BLUE CHIP VALUES: CENTRICA (buy), ASTRAZENECA (investors who followed

our earlier tip should hold on) - Look who's trading: REG VARDY

(investors might like to follow Sir Peter Vardy's lead and buy stock) -

SMALL CAP COMMENT: AUSTIN REED (sell), TED BAKER (buy), VECTURA (drop is

overdone and further licensing deals should get the share price rising),

CAMBRIAN MINING (those who followed our original tip should lock in

their 173 pct profit) - TAKING STOCK: Edmond Jackson says there is a

variety of ways to exploit the Chinese economic growth story; you could

buy into WESTERN CANADIAN COAL, or, say, into HENDERSON TR PACIFIC; he

says that CAMBRIAN MINING is well placed to be a keen play for private

investors, and adds that if the commodities up-trend is sustained, RAB

CAPITAL SPECIAL SITUATIONS is the most adept fund to follow



Independent on Sunday

Shipbuilders bid to end boom and bust cycle; naval yards ready to merge

some of their operations in move to head off foreign competition (BAE

SYSTEMS, VT GROUP, Swan Hunter, BABCOCK INTERNATIONAL)



Mail on Sunday

MIDAS updates its high-yielding Dogs of the Footsie portfolio: BRADFORD

& BINGLEY, SCOTTISH POWER and J SAINSBURY drop out; selling these three

raises 3,481 stg to reinvest in BT GROUP, SCOTTISH & NEWCASTLE and

BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO; remaining members are UNITED UTILITIES, LLOYDS

TSB, ROYAL & SUN ALLIANCE, SEVERN TRENT, ALLIANCE & LEICESTER, FRIENDS

PROVIDENT and SCOTTISH & SOUTHERN ENERGY - COMPANIES AND MARKETS: MAN

GROUP (hopes of a takeover scotched as research into frenzied share

trading suggested that other hedge funds were at the root of the group's

recent share price rollercoaster); SECRET DEALINGS: PD PORTS (A-rated

Carl Stick recently bought 300,000 shares for the Rathbone Income fund,

taking its stake to two pct); BIG FOOD GROUP (Baugur has dropped plans

to sell cash-and-carry chain Booker if the company secures control of

Big Food Group, according to insiders); MEAN FIDDLER (brokers slash

profit forecasts after the collapse of last week's share placing and

acquisition) - TAKING STOCK: BIOTRACE INTERNATIONAL (rumours of a

looming bid; but adding particular grist to this mill was heavy trading

in the shares late on Friday, and some traders are now awaiting

tomorrow's market opening with bated breath)

Afternoon all,

Thanks for all the thoughts........

Afternoon all.

Thanks Mr G and Rob for a great start to the week a must read!!!

Great to remember the Darlington and Edinburgh meets, these guys give so much of there free time to help us out!!! Many thanks.

Long ARM BLND BUR CTM RGU SOF S&P

Enjoy the rest of your weekend,see you all again in the morning ...

Mega...

Evening all

Thanks greystone and seymour

many thanks graystone/seymour,its a big week for brjk and for me,be lucky.

DD

Article in times or telegraph today saying losses expected to be 3m vs 4.5m last year in improved performance from Instore

i here figures of 2.8 million,its common knowledge there on the up.

morning all

Morning all.

'bout time you showed up again dave...........

You seem to have done well though ;-)

morning all,cheers sw fingers crossed

morning campers.

Mornimg all

Morning all,

Decided to buy a few BDEV ealier as they are going ex div - 14.68p on the 20th Ocotber. Lets see what they do between now and then.

Morning all.

Morning!

Have a good week all. Will pop by now and again.