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Traders Thread - Tuesday 16th November (TRAD)     

Greystone - 16 Nov 2004 06:10

Greystone - 16 Nov 2004 06:10 - 2 of 13

Good morning traders!

A "dunno which way to turn" sort of session in New York last night when the profit-takers held back further progress. The Dow closed up 11.23 at 10,550.24 with the Nasdaq 8.75 ahead at 2,094.09 and the S&P500 about even at 1,183.81.

Oil slipped below $46 a barrel intraday to close at $46.87. That should give airline stocks a boost today in UK but clobber energy stocks. Could make for the sort of volatility you are looking for.

Vodafone should be pick of the crop of today's reporters but keep an eye on peers like OOM. Whitehead Mann might take the opportunity to update us on bidder news and York Pharma's finals will be a fun read.... ;-)

Happy trading!

G.


Digger - 16 Nov 2004 07:03 - 3 of 13

MARKETS
FTSE 100 4,803.1 up 9.2
FTSE 250 6,592.5, up 10.2
DJIA 10,550.24 up 11.23
Nasdaq Coq 2,089 up 8.75
S&P 500 1,183.81 down 0.36
Tokyo: Nikkei closed at 11,161.75 down 65.82
Hang Seng midday 13,897.70 down 34.52
Gold 436.42 usd (434.82 usd)
Oil - Brent Dec 40.34 usd (43.02 usd)

BREAKING NEWS
* House price falls are gathering momentum and are spreading across the UK, according to the RICS - FT
* LSE considering tightening rules governing short-selling in the London market
* Arcelor predicts end to raqant steel prices - FT
* SEC filed fraud charges against Conrad Black - FT
* HBOS drops moves to buy Northern Bank and National Irish Banks from National Australia Bank
* HSBC has expressed interest in the 3 bln usd store and credit card operations of Macy's and Bloomingdale's - Times
* 3I to make an offer for LK Bennett - Times
* Only eight supercasinos will be built in Britain in a major climbdown on gambling to be announced today by the government - Independent

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on STANDARD CHARTERED (there must be a fair chance Peter Wong will be snapped up by a mainland bank before STANCHART snaps up anything of its own; while discipline on price is admirable, such caution does not always pay off) - Arcelor (the first part of 2005 could be as good as it gets) - Euro-area bonds (will the next move in European interest rates be down If the euro keeps strengthening against the dollar, the ECB will be prevented from raising rates, which in turn creates favourable conditions for euro-area bonds) - Wm Wrigley (Wrigley might be able to lay out big enough benefits to justify the price for Life Savers and Altoids. The question for investors is how easily it will digest its biggest acquisition to date)
EXPRESS
WHO'S DEALING: ENVESTA TELECOM (chairman pays 7,440 stg for 400,00 shares) - SHARES WHISPER: Phosphagenics (speculation about positive results from studies in California of its heart disease treatment) - BROKER'S VIEW: BETONSPORTS (Altium said the shares were undervalued)
Times
RUMOUR OF THE DAY: HILTON GROUP (Alchemy Partners believed to be eyeing a number of hotel packages being sold off by the big chains, including 11 hotels put up for sale by HILTON GROUP) - DIRECTORS' DEALINGS: ENVESTA TELECOM (Kevin Jauncey, the incoming chairman bought 400,000 shares at 1.86 pence) - TErUS: AMEC (hold), LUMINAR (still worth holding), PD PORTS (buy)
Telegraph
QUESTOR: LUMINAR (don't step off the dance floor yet), MAGESTIC WINES (consider taking a bit of profit), DIPLOMA (worth a look)
Independent
THE INVESTMENT COLUMN: AMLIN (new investors should stay away), WILLIAM RANSOM (shares are reasonably valued but they are not for the faint hearted), CREST NICHOLSON (keep buying)
Guardian
ANTOFAGASTA (talk company is being primed for a bid from Phelps Dodge Corp)

daves dazzlers - 16 Nov 2004 07:28 - 4 of 13

Morning all.

Digger - 16 Nov 2004 07:37 - 5 of 13

Emap 'on track' for FY as H1 matches expectations

LONDON (AFX) - Emap PLC said today it expects to meet its forecasts for the full year as the UK media group reported first-half results in line with analysts' expectations.
Profit before amortisation of goodwill and tax rose to 96 mln stg in the first half, slightly higher than 94 mln stg a year ago, as turnover for the group rose 3 pct to 522 mln stg.
At constant exchange rates, total turnover increased by 4 pct.
In the UK, consumer magazine circulation revenues have started the second half "well", Emap said, with growth across the portfolio and key titles such as heat, Closer and ZOO all strong.
"Consumer magazine advertising has strengthened marginally in the third quarter, particularly on agency sales through Emap Advertising," the company said.
In France, the TV listings titles are not experiencing any worsening on the rate of decline in the newsstand, with the rest of the portfolio showing modest
growth.
"However, advertising remains very soft across the market as a whole," Emap said.
French operations have suffered from the competitive launches in the TV listings market.

jj50 - 16 Nov 2004 07:55 - 6 of 13

Morning all.

Druid2 - 16 Nov 2004 08:21 - 7 of 13

Morning all. Back from a fortnight's holiday to see some nice profits. Long may it continue for us all. Happy trading folks.

daves dazzlers - 16 Nov 2004 08:28 - 8 of 13

Nice one druid,good to have you back.

Druid2 - 16 Nov 2004 09:30 - 9 of 13

tks Dave.

Digger - 16 Nov 2004 10:21 - 10 of 13

London shares - midmorning features

FTSE 100 risers
Vodafone 145-1/2 up 2-3/4
Interim dividend, extended buyback programme; UBS 'buy'
EMAP 824-1/2 up 13
In-line H1; brokers cautiously optimistic
Land Securities Group 1,216 up 8
In new London property deal with DrKW
ICI 232-1/2 up 1-1/2
Oil price relatively low
BG Group 357-3/4 up 2
Oil price relatively low
SABMiller 838-1/2 up 3-1/2
Outperform WestLB
BAE Systems 249-1/2 up 1
Rally after tax probe prompted falls yesterday
ITV 113 up 1/2
Rally after falls yesterday on talk might buy Virgin radio
Sage group
Buys Federal Liaison Services in US for E/V value of 9.7 mln eur

FTSE 100 fallers
Enterprise Inns 596-1/2 down 25
Fears over smoking ban
Schroders 674 down 22-1/2
Positive broker comment offsets gains in figures; Teather & Greenwood sell
Gallaher 699 down 18-1/2
Fears over smoking ban
Corus 54-3/4 down 1-1/4
Concern over steel prices; profit taking after FTSE 100 promotion
Capita 357-3/4 down 8-3/4
Downgrade by Citigroup to hold vs buy
Iqerial Tobacco 1,301 down 21
Fears over smoking ban
Next 1,657 down 23
Weak retail sector; recent downgrade
Standard Chartered 1,024 down 11-1/2
Weak close to Hang Seng

FTSE 250 risers
Burberry 418 up 23
Top of the range H1; Merrill 'buy'
MFI 117-3/4 up 5-1/4
Upbeat trading statement; Panmure upgrades
Chrysalis 167 up 3
Rebound
FKI 137 up 0-3/4
Bid speculation
Rank 287 up 5
Deutsche rates 'buy'
Thus 16 up 1/2
Rally after weak outlook induced falls yesterday

FTSE 250 fallers
French Connection 250 down 55
FY profit warning, Numis/Evolution downgrade
Mitchells & Butler 279-1/4 down 3-3/4
Concern over likely smoking ban in UK
Brambles 275 down 10-3/4
In-line trading update prompts profit taking
Punch Taverns 543 down 17
Concern over likely smoking ban in UK
Greene King 1,126 down 34
Concern over likely smoking ban in UK
JD Wetherspoon 227-1/4 down 5-/4
Concern over likely smoking ban in UK
Misys 218-1/4 down 4-1/4
Extends yesterday's losses on UBS downgrade
Novar 161 down 2
Profit taking
Northern Foods 155-3/4 down 2
Swings into loss in H1
Bovis Homes 526 down 7
UK house prices in 3-months to Oct fell by their fastest rate since December 1992 -RICS

Other risers
Stanleco 5.0 up 1.0
Wins Asda contract
Earthport 1.15 up 0.2
Interconsult contract win
Nature Technology 0.87 up 0.12
FEED contract news
Supercart 13-1/2 up 1-1/2
Director share buying
African Gold 6.25 up 0.5
Discovery in Ghana
Celltalk 42 up 2-1/2
Extends yesterday's rally
Cropper 167-1/2 up 9-1/2
Strong H1
Regent Inns 45 up 2-1/2
Talk that Robert Tchenguiz has requested a meeting with the company.
Wolfson 117 up 2-3/4
US court order will nmot impact business

Other fallers
MyTravel 3.0 down 0.9
Extends yesterday's losses on CAA worries
Plant Health 44-1/2 down 10
Profit warning
Formjet 4.12 down 0.63
Panda delay hits profits and revenues
CamAxys 13 down 1-1/2
FY losses mount; omits FY dividend
Pantagonia Gold 13-1/4 down 1
2.8 mln stg placing

Digger - 16 Nov 2004 10:50 - 11 of 13

UK and European brokers' recommendations issued today, as collated by AFX News from a range of market sources.


CITIGROUP SMITH BARNEY
Downgrade Hold from buy Capita, ups target to 370 pence from 330, raises estimates -- Reiterate Hold Allianz, ups target to 95 eur from 90

CSFB
Downgrade Neutral from outperform Allianz -- Initiate Neutral Evolution Securities -- European Staffing: Initiate Outperform Michael Page, target 222 pence; Initiate Outperform Hays, target 141 pence; Outperform Randstad, target 31.6 eur; Initiate Neutral Vedior, target 13 eur; Underperform Adecco, target 55 sfr -- Reiterate outperform BASF, ups target to 58 eur from 55

JP MORGAN
European Focus List: Remove mm02, add TDC -- Downgrade Underweight from neutral Bank of Ireland -- Reiterate Overweight Virgin Mobile, ups target to 220 pence from 215 -- Overweight Spirent, ups target to 80 pence from 70

DRESDNER KLEINWORT
Downgrade Hold from add BOC, preview -- Downgrade Hold from add IWKA

UBS
Upgrade Neutral from underperform United Utilities, valuation call -- Reiterate Neutral Neutral Celesio, ups target to 62 eur from 55 -- Neutral Luminar, ups target to 525 pence from 485 -- Buy Wessanen, cuts target to 12.5 eur from 14.0, ups predictability rating to 1 from 2 -- Neutral Finmeccanica, ups target to 0.66 eur from 0.61 -- Neutral TPI, ups target to 6.1 eur from 5.75 -- Buy SIG Holding, ups target to 300 sfr from 285 -- Buy IPSOS, ups target to 93 eur from 91

CAZENOVE
Upgrade Outperform from in-line Big Yellow

DEUTSCHE BANK
Upgrade buy from hold OPAP, ups target to 18.0 eur from 16.3 -- Reiterate Buy Gamesa, cuts target to 13.6 eur from 14.0, reduces estimates -- Hold Palfinger, ups target to 37 eur from 29 -- Hold FJH, cuts target to 4.7 eur from 6.4 -- Buy Amadeus GTD, ups target to 7.1 eur from 6.5 -- Buy Celesio, ups target to 65 eur from 62

GOLDMAN SACHS
Upgrade Outperform from in-line Cortefiel, adjusts estimates -- Downgrade Underperform from in-line KarstadtQuelle -- European Visioncare sector: Initiate Outperform Essilor; Initiate Outperform Fielmann; Initiate In-line De Rigo; Resume In-line Luxottica, cuts estimates

PANMURE GORDON
Upgrade Hold from sell MFI Furniture, ups target to 120 pence from 90 -- Upgrade buy from hold Cranswick -- Upgrade Hold from sell Chrysalis -- Reiterate Buy VT Group, ups target to 320 pence from 315

SG SECURITIES
Downgrade hold from buy Equant, fair value 4 eur -- Reiterate Buy Arcelor, ups fair value to 17.5 eur

CAI CHEUVREUX
Downgrade Underperform from Selected List Amadeus GTD, target 70 eur, ups estimates -- Reiterate Outperform Arcelor, ups target to 20 eur from 18, raises estimates -- Outperform Celesio, ups target to 66 pence from 65, raises estimates -- Outperform Fuchs Petrolub, ups target to 88 eur from 83, raises estimates -- Underperform Julius Baer, cuts fair value to 330 sfr from 340 -- Underperform Rodriguez, cuts target to 40 eur from 50, reduces estimates -- Outperform WPP Group, ups target to 640 pence

ING
Upgrade Hold from sell Wessanen -- Downgrade Hold from buy Audika -- Downgrade Hold from buy Aubay

NUMIS
Downgrade Add from buy French Connection

NOMURA
Downgrade Neutral from buy BT Group -- Initiate Neutral Enel

WESTLB
Downgrade Neutral from buy Fuchs Petroleum, cuts target to 70 eur from 73 -- Downgrade Neutral from outperform AMB Generali, cuts target to 64 eur from 68 --Reiterate Outperform SABMiller, ups target to 900 pence

EVOLUTION SECURITIES
Downgrade Reduce from add French Connection -- Reiterate Reduce MFI, ups target to 110 pence from 100 -- Game Group, Buy rating under review as close to 75 pence target

TEATHER & GREENWOOD
Upgrade Hold from sell MFI -- Downgrade Sell from hold Schroders

ALTIUM SECURITIES
Downgrade Hold from add Whitehead Mann

MERRILL LYNCH
Reiterate Buy Celesio, ups target to 65 eur, raises estimates

MORGAN STANLEY
Reiterate Overweight Arcelor, ups target to 20 eur from 19, raises estimates, 'top pick in European steel sector'

little woman - 16 Nov 2004 13:18 - 12 of 13

Afternoon all,

Nice to see someone doing well.

acw - 16 Nov 2004 13:23 - 13 of 13

Big al,
chk your mail.
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