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Traders Thread - Tuesday 19th July (TRAD)     

Greystone - 18 Jul 2005 22:11

Greystone - 18 Jul 2005 22:12 - 2 of 7

Hello traders!

US stocks ended lower Monday, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 snapping a seven-session winning streak, after weaker than expected earnings from Citigroup prompted some investors to lock in recent gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 65.84 points to 10,574.99, its first loss in four sessions. The Nasdaq Composite fell 11.91 points to 2,144.87, while the S&P500 dipped 6.79 points to 1,221.13.

See you in the morning with the latest.....

G.

Greystone - 19 Jul 2005 06:21 - 3 of 7

Good morning traders!

It has been a fairly quiet session in Hong Kong and in Tokyo this morning with both bourses just showing fractionally down. Crude oil was steady, virtually unchanged from the New York closing price of $57.32 a barrel.

Happy trading!

G.

Digger - 19 Jul 2005 06:40 - 4 of 7

LONDON (AFX) - London shares are expected to start the session higher, clawing back some of yesterday losses, as better than expected earnings news from US computer giant IBM after the bell last night offset a poor showing on Wall Street, dealers said.
According to spread-betting firm CMC, the FTSE 100 index is seen opening around 11 points firmer at 5225 after closing yesterday 16.6 points off at 5214.2.
Meanwhile, In New York shares also ended under pressure, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 snapping a seven-session winning streak, after weaker than expected earnings from Citigroup prompted some investors to cash in on recent gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 65.84 points to 10,574.99, with the benchmark index posting its first loss in four sessions.
But in after hours trade, bellwether IBM jumped more than 4 pct as the technology giant posted second-quarter profits and revenue above analysts' expectations.
And across Asia overnight, the Hang Seng ended the morning down 1.68 points at 14,565.32, while the Nikkei started its afternoon session up 9.21 at 11,767.89.
And also in Asia, oil prices were steady after falls in the US on news that Hurricane Emily would miss major oil rigs, and on OPEC's forecast of lower global demand.
Earlier this morning, New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in August, was at 57.33 usd.
Back in London, on the economic front investors will sift through the latest RICS house price survey released late last night.
According to the report, prices continued to fall in June, though at a slightly slower pace.
In equities, with little of note on the blue chip diary midcap chip designer ARM Holdings and phone group Virgin Mobile will take centre stage.
ARM is expected to announce a rise in profit but a continued decline in royalty revenues for its technology when it reports second quarter results.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a slight rise in Physical Intellectual Property Division royalties to 4.25 mln stg but an overall decline of 3.6 pct.
Meanwhile, Virgin Mobile is set to unveil key performance indicators for the second quarter.
Although the group is expected to have added to its active customer base of over 4 mln, opinion is divided on how deeply stiffening competition has hit growth.
Joint house broker Investec Securities, expects Virgin Mobile to have added some 72,000 new subscribers in the three months to the end of June, down from 150,000 in the same period last year.
By contrast, Goldman Sachs and CSFB are looking for net customer additions of 320,000 and 400,000 respectively, boosted by a new consumer contract product that Virgin Mobile launched through the Carphone Warehouse in late April.
In earnings news, small caps NCC and Universal Salvage are down to release final results, while chocolate retailer Thorntons will update investors on current trading.
BA is hosting its AGM along with Johnson Matthey, Luminar, and Phoenix IT.
Brokers will also turn to broker comment for inspiration.
Shares in UK banks will be in focus as Bradford & Bingley was upgraded to 'hold' from 'sell' while HBOS was cut to 'hold' from 'buy' at Deutsche Bank.
Hilton will also garner attention after the hotel and betting group was upgraded to 'outperform' from 'in-line' at Goldman Sachs.
Drinks group SABmiller could also be given a fillip on news it was added to JP Morgan's Analyst Focus List with an 'overweight stance'.
Furthermore, according to the FT the group is poised to agree an 8 bln usd takeover of Grupo Empresarial Bavaria, in a deal that would give the UK-based brewer access to Latin America's fast-growing beer market.

Digger - 19 Jul 2005 07:26 - 5 of 7

AFX UK at a glance share guide - 2

MARKETS
FTSE 100 5,214.2, down 16.6
FTSE 2507,435.0, down 35.8
DJIA 10,575.00, down 65.80
Nasdaq Comp 2,144.87, down 11.91
S&P 500 1,221.15, down 6.75
Tokyo: Nikkei closed at 11,764.84, up 6.61
Hang Seng midday 14,565.32, down 1.68
Gold 421.75 usd (420.75 usd)
Oil - Brent Sep 56.99 usd (57.61 usd)

BREAKING NEWS
* Brown set to delay spending review; move has implications for timing of PM's departure; postponement until 2007 tightens chancellor's grip - FT
* Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp's Rover bid plans to employ 3,000 - FT
* Rupert Murdoch makes a 331 mln stg cash purchase of Intermix Media, his first significant internet acquisition since he made the sector a priority for his News Corp media group earlier this year - FT
* Stuart Rose, chief executive of MARKS & SPENCER, loses his most powerful boardroom ally with the resignation of his right-hand man Charles Wilson - FT
* SABMILLER poised to agree an 8 bln usd (4.6 bln stg) takeover of Grupo Empresarial Bavaria, in a deal that will give the UK-based brewer of Castle Lager and Miller Lite access to Latin America's beer market - FT
* CAIRN ENERGY gives start date for 'world class' oil field - FT
* Internet hosting group TELECITY, valued at about 1 bln stg in the dotcom boom, to be taken private for 58 mln stg - FT
* JARVIS in advanced talks to sell its UK road repairs unit to Accord - FT
* REGENT INNS walks away from its 101 mln stg bid for URBIUM - FT
* PUNCH TAVERNS adds Avebury Holdings to its growing stable of pubs, buying the private company's estate for 219 mln stg in cash and debt - FT
* BALFOUR BEATTY changes plea to guilty in Hatfield trial
* Number of new home buyers rose in June for the first time in six months - Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
* ITV bidders take fright at pensions black hole - Express

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on CABLE & WIRELESS, UK casinos, Philips, Unipol/Banca Nazionale del Lavoro - IG (not cheap)
Independent
THE INVESTMENT COLUMN: RHM (buy), WOLSELEY (remains a core sector holding)
Guardian
BT GROUP/LOGICACMG (there will be bad news for both today as a survey warns that the average size of IT and business process outsourcing contracts almost halved in the second quarter of 2005) - NAPIER BROWN FOODS (City professionals believe THE REAL GOOD FOOD COMPANY could announce a 220 pence-a-share offer by the end of the week)
Telegraph
QUESTOR: WOLSELEY (hold on), IG GROUP (hold), SLOUGH ESTATES (worth a look)
Times
CIRCLE OIL (talk of large fundraising) - DIRECTORS' DEALINGS: CONNAUGHT (chief executive sells stock for 486,350 stg) - TEMPUS: IG GROUP (pass), WOLSELEY (hold), BURREN ENERGY (can be held with some confidence)
Mail
PLANIT HOLDINGS (current rating undervalues - KBC Peel Hunt)
Express
SHARE WHISPER: SMITH & NEPHEW (talk its forthcoming results will be strong) - WHO'S DEALING: MICE GROUP (chairman snaps up 58,000 shares at 25-1/2 pence)

Digger - 19 Jul 2005 10:30 - 6 of 7

LONDON (AFX) - UK and European brokers' recommendations issued today, as collated by AFX News from a range of market sources.

WESTLB
Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral SABMiller -- Downgrade Neutral from outperform Logitech, target 42.5 eur -- Upgrade Outperform from neutral adidas-salomon, new target 175 eur

BRIDGEWELL
Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight Centaur Holdings

NUMIS
Upgrades to Add from Hold Babcock, 190 pence target -- Buy Consolidated Minerals, raises target to 126 pence from 120

DRESDNER KLEINWORT
Downgrades to Hold from Add Enagas -- Upgrade Hold from reduce Virgin Mobile

UBS
Upgrades to Buy from Neutral Invensys -- Buy HMV Group, ups target to 295 pence -- Buy Georg Fischer, ups target to 480 sfr -- Downgrade Neutral from buy TNT Group -- Upgrade Buy from neutral EMS Chemie

ALTIUM SECURITIES
Reiterate Add Wembley, ups target to 896 pence

CA CHEUVREUX
Upgrade Outperform from underperform Fimalac, ups target to 50 eur -- Upgrade Outperform from underperform Schibsted, ups target to 200 nkr from 145 - Reiterate Outperform LISI, ups target to 74 eur from 70 -- Outperform Soitec, ups target to 15 eur

BNP PARIBAS
Reiterate Neutral Atlas Copco, ups target to 125 skr from 114, raises estimates -- Neutral Sanef, ups target to 43 eur from 42 -- Neutral Soitec, ups target to 8 eur from 7 -- Neutral LISI, ups target to 61 eur

MERRILL LYNCH
Reiterate Buy Atlas Copco, ups target to 145 skr

DEUTSCHE BANK
Reiterate Hold Karstadt Quelle, raises target to 11.4 eur from 9 -- Buy Metso, raises target to 21 eur from 17.8 -- UK Banks: Downgrade Hold from Buy HBOS, target 910 pence; Upgrade to Hold from Sell Bradford & Bingley, ups target to 320 pence from 300, preview; Reiterate Hold Barclays, ups price target to 600 pence from 560, preview -- Hold Atlas Copco, ups target to 125 skr from 100

PANMURE GORDON
Downgrade Hold from buy ARM Holdings, target 120 pence -- Reiterate Buy IG Group, ups target to 130 pence from 120

CITIGROUP SMITH BARNEY
Upgrade Buy from hold Novartis, ups target to 54.25 usd from 50.08 -- Downgrade Hold from buy Standard Bank, target 75 rand -- Reiterate Hold Atlas Copco, ups target to 130 skr from 108.33 -- Buy Wolseley, ups target to 1,300 pence from 1,240 - Sell Gazprom, ups target to 33.60 usd from 32.30 -- Upgrade Buy from hold Kensington Group, ups target to 665 pence from 559 -- Reiterate Buy Banca Intesa, ups target to 4.60 eur from 4.3 -- Buy Cemex, ups target to 52 usd, preview

JP MORGAN
Downgrade Neutral from overweight PPR, cuts fair value to 85 eur from 88 -- Downgrade Neutral from overweight Atlas Copco, ups fair value to 139 skr from 126

LEHMAN
Nordic Banks: Initiate sector with Negative rating; Initiate Overweight Nordea, target 8.6 eur; Initiate Equal-weight SEB, target 145 skr; Equal-weight DnB Nor, target 70 nkr; Equal-weight Swedbank, target 186 skr; Underweight Danske Bank, target 182 dkr; Underweight Handelsbanken, target 157 skr -- Initiate Equal-weight Toro, target 13 eur French Banks: Retain Negative sector view; prefer Societe Generale, ups target to 97 eur; BNP Paribas, ups target to 63 eur -- Equal-weight Ahold, ups target to 7.0 eur -- Overweight Antena3, target 18.75 - Overweight Atlas Copco, ups target to 138 skr, raises estimates -- Equal-weight Philips, ups target to 23 eur

GOLDMAN SACHS
Reiterate In-line Credit Suisse, ups estimates -- Outperform UBS, ups estimates -- Upgrade In-line from underperform Deutsche Bank, up estimates -- Upgrade Outperform from in-line Stora Enso; Downgrade In-line from outperform Metso -- Upgrade Outperform from in-line Saint Gobain, ups estimates -- Upgrade Outperform from In-Line Hilton Group, adjusts estimates -- Reiterate In-Line Atlas Copco, ups estimates, prefers SKF -- Outperform Punch Taverns, ups estimates -- Outperform Philips, cuts forecasts, prefers STMicroelectronics or ARM -- Outperform Stanley Leisure, adjusts estimates

ING
Downgrade Hold from buy De'Longhi, cuts target to 2.9 eur from 3.3, reduces estimates

SG SECURITIES
Oil Services: Retain Neutral sector view; Upgrade Buy from hold Geophysique, ups fair value to 89 eur from 70; Saipem, ups fair value to 12.7 eur from 10.2; Technip, ups fair value to 45 eur from 40; SBM, ups fair value to 70 eur from 59 -- Reiterate Buy Philips, ups fair value to 25.5 eur from 24.0, trims estimates

CSFB
Downgrade Neutral from Outperform Pyaterochka, target 15.8 usd -- Outperform Wolseley, ups price target to 1,400 pence from 1,300

ABN AMRO
Upgrade hold from reduce Arriva, new target 546 pence -- Reiterate Buy Gambro, ups fair value to 130 skr, preview -- Downgrades to Hold from Add ABB

CAZENOVE
Outperform Ultra Electronics, ups EPS estimates

Velocity - 19 Jul 2005 21:44 - 7 of 7

For all you US watchers out there, intc just tanked 75-80pts in after hours extended trading following it's update. Dow gobbling up it's gains and now at 10,615.
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