A Brief Look At The Week Ahead

The big event of the week will be the Bank of Englands latest interest rate decision on Thursday. Last month, the Monetary Policy Committee voted five-to-four to keep rates on hold, although most economists now expect a cut of 0.25%. If this happens, it is likely to be due to concerns over retail spending and the weak performance of the manufacturing sector. Bankers will be watching the MPC decision with some interest as a reduction in rates could lessen the impact of bad debts. HSBC will release H1 results on Monday. In late May, it said its Q1 earnings were in line with expectations but warned of wilting consumer credit quality in the UK. Investors will be looking for any sign that conditions have worsened Barclays will reveal interim results on Friday. Analysts expect the strength of its Barclays Capital business to be offset by the weaker performance of its retail arm. Alliance & Leicester reports on Tuesday, with the market concerned by its lack of earnings growth, and HBOS emerges the following day. Its outlook is likely to be helped by any cut in rates, as the UK's largest mortgage bank. Royal Bank of Scotland will announce interims on Thursday. Investors fear a warning that bad debts have deteriorated but analysts expect results to receive a boost from business banking growth in the UK and US. After the recent bombings in London, investors in airline stocks will get their first update on trading conditions this week, when British Airways and Ryanair release results and easyJet reports traffic figures. Investors will be on the lookout for any comments from management that bookings have fallen as tourists shun the UK. BA, the largest UK carrier, will release Q1 results on Friday in what will be one of CEO Rod Eddington's last official duties. While analysts are now looking for an update on further rounds of cuts, one area where costs are bound to rise is fuel. BA has already warned that the rising oil price will increase its fuel bill by 450m this financial year. It has tried to partly offset this by a recent rise in its fuel surcharge. At the budget end of the market, easyJet will update the market on its monthly traffic statistics for July. There is some concern that the bombings could have an impact on bookings, although analysts expect underlying conditions to remain strong. Its Dublin-based rival Ryanair releases quarterly results on Tuesday, with analysts expecting profits to rise by around 14%. Back on the ground, Rio Tinto's interims on Wednesday are expected to reveal strong performances from its aluminium and copper divisions and, on Thursday, the interims of Anglo American should get a similar boost. Prospects at BSkyB are expected to be good when it publishes Q4 results on Wednesday. Margins and revenues at the broadcaster should improve, with the City interested in how many subscribers it added over the last quarter. Marconi posts Q1 results the same day. After missing out on any part in BT's 10bn 21st Century Network project, the group's future has been in serious doubt. The market will be looking for any singns that Chinese partner, Huawei, may extend its ties. So, plenty of fun and games to look forward to in the week ahead. Greystone (Greystone is Alan English, City Editor at MoneyAM.)

Hello traders!

I hope your weekends are going well.

Supermum has spent the week on a gentle holiday trip, but I hope she will return with her chart view next weekend.

Good hunting!

G.

I have just realised that this is my first anniversary with MoneyAM!

Where has the year gone?

Thank you all for making it such a fun experience. I'm so pleased to have met so many of you during the year and hope that the Traders Thread experience is still one you enjoy. I know it could never be the same as before but I have tried hard to keep the tradition going.

Here's to another year of achievement for everybody!

G.

Good morning traders!

In Asia this morning, the Hang Seng Index ended the first half of the session up 58.75 points at 14,939.73 with shares in HSBC very active ahead of results today.

The Nikkei was recently trading ahead 46.71 points at 11,946.31.

Off to find some UK news.....

Happy Monday!

G.

GLAXOSMITHKLINE UPPED TO 'EQUAL-WEIGHT' FROM 'UNDERWEIGHT' AT MORGAN STANLEY

ASTRAZENECA CUT TO 'EQUAL-WEIGHT' VS 'OVERWEIGHT' AT MORGAN STANLEY

SCOTTISH & NEWCASTLE UPGRADED TO 'HOLD' VS 'SELL' AT DKW

BT GROUP DOWNGRADED TO 'HOLD' FROM 'BUY' BY DEUTSCHE BANK

AFX UK at a glance share guide - 3

MARKETS
Tokyo: Nikkei 225 (midday) 11,939.39 up 39.79
Hang Seng (midday) 14,939.73 up 58.75

BREAKING NEWS - MONDAY
* O2 investor manhandled at AGM to complain to DTI that he was prevented from proposing a valid motion calling for CEO's resignation - Guardian
* New Debenhams terms anger suppliers - Telegraph
* FORUM ENERGY to float on Aim today - Independent
* Murdoch dynasty 'will end', NEWS CORP likely to be broken up on founder's death, says former lieutenant Andrew Neil - Guardian
* Peter Chernin to take over most of Lachlan Murdoch's news at NEWS CORP - FT
* Japanese drugs group TAKEDA gets set for 8 bln stg acquisition spree - Times
* Hewlett-Packard to stop re-selling iPods - FT
* Laxey value fund to quit Dublin for Aim - FT
* UK telecom regulator Ofcom to investigate overseas call costs - Times
* UK alcohol licensing scheme 'in chaos' - FT
* WTO ruling set to peel open EU banana policy - FT

MONDAY PRESS COMMENT
FT
Lex Column: US Adjustable Rate Mortgages (Cheap money fuels housing boom. The withdrawal of easy credit usually signals the end of the party. While the edge of the cliff has not been reached, the drop looks scary); Renewable energy (Fundamentals are improving. Still, at current prices, sun-seekers risk getting burned); UK pensions (it is hard to regulate a problem effectively if you do not define what it is)

Times
Rumour of the Day: AMVESCAP (CI Financial said to be examining potential bid) -- Smaller Stock to Watch: SCREEN TECHNOLOGY (Solid Aim debut expected today)

Independent
Small Talk: WALKER GREENBANK (City charm offensive has impressed a number of private client brokers; aims to build a big presence in the US); MEDIA SQUARE (appetite for growth clearly remains undiminished); DIGITAL CYBERMASTERS (Poor track record in meeting its sales expectations); VOLLER ENERGY (Investors' worry is that hiccups in the development process may cause delays); Directors buying (The ratio of directors buying to selling has spiked suddenly in recent weeks. So much for selling in May and going away)

Express
The Aim Market: BETEX (Ofex-quoted company looking to float on Aim)

Happy anniversary Greystone and thanks for everything.

Good morning all.

NYMEX CRUDE SPIKES BACK ABOVE 61 USD ON REPORT OF KING FAHD'S DEATH