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My share of the year 2006................     

hawick - 13 Dec 2005 09:01

............Anywhere on any market, simply has to be Ofex listed St helen's Capital. (Ofex:STH).

By its very nature of being on Ofex it carries some additional risk, and there will be people who reject simply because it is on Ofex.

I suggest they spare me a moment however. I'll try and make it worth their while!

It is strictly buy and hold..

Private investors by and large simply do not yet understand what is happening over there. To call it a revolution is simply not to overstate it. The holding company has raised 2.5 million pounds and seen its shares rise 400% in three months (despite a profit warning!!!) to a market cap of over 25 million.

Institutions have piled in - because a few of them DO see what is coming, names like Charles Stanley, Teather and Greenwood, Peel Hunt and Cenkos and many others who previously loathed the very word ofex have fallen over themselves to be a part of a mini stock market explosion.

What is going on? It is essential to briefly understand this first.

1)Ofex will now offer a rival quote to the LSE with cheaper costs and tighter spreads on many AIM stocks than the LSE. That's the first bit.

2)The second is that Simon Bickles built up AIM for years from a similar size to ofex today, now he is running Ofex.

3)The third bit is that EU legislation is strangling AIM companies as new accounting structures are enforced at considerable cost, many are considering a move to Ofex.

4) For me that will all start with the fourth, the most IMPORTANT bit. About 100 AIM cash shells have been told to "do a deal" or return money to shareholders, by April. Many of these will escape this draconian measure by listing on Ofex.

And that will start the real goldrush, imho.

Now I said the holding company has risen 400% in three months in anticipation. Value gone - surely?

But there is one company with a market cap of 1.5 million, ready in position to pounce. Many of the cash shells will need an ofex adviser for starters and ST HELEN'S CAPITAL at 9.5p up from 7p, a pittance in relation to Plus Market's 400% rise, is the name to back. They've risen their number of clients from 5 to 30 and that looks sure to double next year. With break even approximately reached, the profits should soon be rolling in.

A rumoured fundraising will be like gold for the company and is expected to be announced, possibly as early as this week. It should be celebrated as it will be untold riches for the company in cash terms and enable the growth to happen. The 'dilution' in this case will be to me an irrelevancy as the company expands.

It will be fascinating to see what 'names' take part in the placing.

In addition the company has stakes in some 20 other businesses, worth over half a million pounds (plus an absolute stack of warrants not included in that figure).

So the broking business is barely valued at a million quid - crazy.

Any bid (I hope there is not one!) would have to be at a substantial premium to the share price, with Directors controlling over 55% of the company.

There is yet another added bonus. A property arm of the company not included in current valuations as I understand it, will float next year, bringing yet more joy to shareholders who will have a stake in it. The empire building may well continue with further funds being set up.

Management are worth that alone in terms of experience, Tony Drury has his fingers in many Ofex pies and Barry Hochen is the right person to attract new business.

Buying Ofex shares is easy, even if it means picking up the phone for now, and this is my share of the year for 2006, with not a hint of an apology.

With the warning note that they are incredibly illiquid (you may have to pay above quote even for 25k) but should be less so next year, my share price target is 25p in 2006, rising to 40-50p the year after. Currently 9.75p if you have the bottle to buy and hold for two years plus, you most certainly should do so.

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