Trading statement today - not good and shares have halved - just starting a thread in case anyone is interested in looking for the dcb ....

Currently 19p to buy - not thinking of buying at this time but just started tracking



ains


last bought 25/02 @ 12.5 last sold 26/02 for 10% gain

see times for rest of article

February 15, 2003

FSA steps in as alert prompts Invensys share fall
By Russell Hotten



THE City regulator is investigating the circumstances leading up to yesterdays surprise profit warning from Invensys, which saw shares in the engineering group halve.
Invensys had denied for more than a week that it planned to publish bad news. But yesterday the company announced a cut in profit forecasts and a writedown on its troubled Baan division. The shares collapsed amid concern that the companys restructuring had ground to a halt.

The Financial Services Authority (FSA) said it had not asked Invensys to release the statement, which came after the share price had already fallen for several days.

However, the regulator is thought to be looking at the circumstances leading to the announcement, which said that second-half core operating profits could be 25 per cent down on the 143 million reported last year.

many papers talking of a break-up or take-over so it will be interesting to see what happens next week..the current management are certainly no better than the last lot in my opinion.

Reminds me of CW. and SGC . Well next week will tell which way the cookie will crumble.

Yes ..... all the magick ingreients for a fast moving trading share - FSA investigation - talk of break up for extracting value - oversold by institutions as punishment for 'unexpected PW' ...... I will be looking to trade intraday on Monday

ains

I see the Telegraph are patting themselves on the back



Invensys

Last week we advised readers to sell Invensys when the shares stood at 42.75p. We feared there was "bad news in the pipeline" and warned that the troubled engineering firm was not out of the woods. Little did we realise how bad things were.

On Friday Rick Haythornthwaite, the chief executive, wiped more than 600m off the share price with a profits warning. Shares in Invensys have fallen 53 per cent since we advised readers to sell seven days ago. We remain cautious.





S Times

February 16, 2003

Troubled Invensys may break itself up
Nils Pratley



THE chief executive of Invensys, Rick Haythornthwaite, who saw the companys share price almost halve with last weeks profit warning, has pledged to consider a break-up of the company if his restructuring plan fails to hit its targets.
Haythornthwaite said he is still confident he can achieve his challenging ambition for improving margins, and that the company should not start hopping around just nine months into the strategy, but he added: If we miss those (targets), then clearly we will asking ourselves as to why.

If the answer is that the best solution for shareholders is a break-up then I wont be afraid to pursue it.

The deadline for assessing the margin targets 8%-10% for the production management division and 10%-12% for energy management will fall at the end of the next financial year.

It may not save Invensyss debt from being downgraded to junk status by the rating agency S&P. Moodys already has it on such a rating and S&P said late on Friday that it was considering similar action.

Yep Ains think your on the right track.Hope for a nice bounce Monday.

top of the FTSE100 risers this morning with 2nd largest volume



ains

Ains are you in yet?

I have been in and out ...... waiting now for re-entry ..... little news today which is irritating and US closed. NAS futures up 2 from +6 earlier this morning

Intraday graph looks like it's heading southwards at this timewithin a trading range 20/22p :-((



ains


from the Mail

Not so easy


I CANNOT understand why the City was so surprised at Friday's profit warning from Invensys. Fund managers* have surely read about the collapse in the rate of growth round the world. They must be aware of the squeeze on corporate profitability and the stagnation of industrial investment in the major markets. Companies on the rack include Invensys's core customers and it should not be beyond the wit of the City's excessively highly-paid fund managers to realise that if customers are strapped for cash and not buying its products, Invensys's sales will disappoint and it will have difficulty hitting its targets.


The fund management industry's knee-jerk reaction to poor performance from someone who is not a fund manager is to demand that they be replaced. But this often makes a bad situation worse, for whoever comes in will not understand the business, feel under pressure to appear decisive and therefore do the quick and easy thing - cut, close and sell off anything with temporarily depressed numbers. Typically, disposals are carried out with excessive speed and are often unnecessary. But Britain's financial sector is so much stronger than its commercial and manufacturing sectors that it calls the shots, however stupid.


Management, and particularly managing a turnaround in a troubled economic climate, requires patience, persistence, skill and understanding. Successful portfolio investment in these times requires similar skills. If fund managers would realise there are no easy answers or quick solutions to their own problems they might have more understanding of how to approach and handle other people.

17 Feb 2003 10:11 GMT

Invensys bounces on value, break up hopes

LONDON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Shares in British engineering firm Invensys Plc came back to life on Monday as investors saw value after a Friday profit warning sparked a 46 percent stock slide and raised talk the company might be broken up.
Invensys, one of the world's largest makers of industrial controls and automation equipment, was up 3.75 percent at 21-3/4 pence around 1000 GMT as investors saw an attractive price to earnings ratio and value in individual divisions, should they be sold off.

"It's a little bit of a technical bounce, and there's still some talk of a break up," said SG Securties analyst Zafar Khan.

Faced with steadily declining sales and profits, the company has cut jobs and costs and has reorganised from four divisions into two major divisions. It is divesting non-core businesses.

Some analysts believe its core production management and energy management divisions could now be worth more on their own than the company as a whole.

Invensys on Friday warned core operating profit could fall 25 percent from the first half but kept a target to raise operating margins by March 2004 in production and energy management.

Goldman Sachs on Monday slashed its earnings per share estimates for the company after the profit warning, but kept its "outperform" rating on the stock on grounds Invensys had already discounted a lot of bad news.

seems to be a tighter trading range than I thought - volumes are useful at 30 million but not exceptional under the circumstances


ains

WESTLB CUTS INVENSYS

Investment bank WestLB Panmure has cut its rating on engineer Invensys ISYS.L to "underperform" from "neutral" after the company said it expected a 25 percent fall in second-half core operating profit compared with first half results.

WestLB said the fall was "significant" and saw possible market weakness offsetting Invensys' restructuring targets.

Just featured on CNBC - nothing new - poor management + bad news factored in at this time

Still within the tight trading range



ains

afx at 1545

Break-up hopes aided a bounce for Invensys, up a penny to 21 following Friday's plunge of 45 pct after the engineer's much more severe than expected full year profits alert. Goldman Sachs was repeating 'outperform' advice on the stock, saying much of the bad news looks to be in the price already.

Currently tracking .....


In a note published today, JP Morgan maintained its 'neutral' recommendation, although it cut its forecasts, arguing that it remains surprised at the magnitude of the company's warning. The broker pointed out that it has cut its pre-goodwill EPS estimates by 28% in full year 2003 to 2.6 pence, by 69% in full year 2004 to 1.3 pence and by 51% to 3.1 pence in full year 2006, adding that it is also expecting a 250m goodwill write-down for Baan.

JP Morgan also noted that it is particularly disappointed by the continued problems in Climate Controls, noting that strong profitability and cash flow generation from this business had been a key element of its investment thesis. The broker went on to say that it does not expect an imminent liquidity problem but sees covenants becoming tight again at the end of 2004, although it added that it would not be surprised to see further asset disposals to refinance debt maturing in the summer 2004.

JP Morgan said it sees opportunity for the stock to bounce from its lows, but finds it hard to make a convincing value case, as its valuation is critically dependant on the pension deficit. The broker calculates a current fair value of 18 pence and upside to 35 pence based on full year 2005 estimates, although in the short term a drop out of the FTSE 100 in March could create downside risk for the shares.

currently at 19p so Morgans were right about ISYS .. think it will fall another 10% from here and might be worth a punt.

watching but no rush ..... tracking intraday with sophisticated alerts ..... made a few the other day but needs newsflow - 3rd most traded still - in top 100 ftse



ains

Think today may have been the day to buy. Has completed the 123 down up down bump, so should start to improve from here.

They closed at the intraday low on modest trading volume - I am certainly going to be interested in the morning .... cannot locate any news today

This is from yesterday US


Invensys: dogged by failure of Baan

Invensys has warned that Baan is likely to lose $16.8 million this year.

February 18, 2003 9:24 AM GMT (Datamonitor) - Invensys will have to write down part of the $715 million it paid for Dutch ERP vendor Baan. The business has failed to make progress in a difficult market and appears to be losing market share. Unless Invensys can turn the company around quickly, it will be under heavy pressure to sell it.


Dutch ERP vendor Baan continues to haunt Invensys. The London, UK-based automation and control systems vendor has warned that it will have to write down a substantial part of the $714.7 million it paid for the company in 2000 as the poorly performing operation is likely to contribute a $16.8 million loss this year.

Invensys warned in its mid-term report that the performance of its combined IT services businesses was considerably lower than last year due to "the substantial decline in market demand". However, in a profit warning it issued on Friday, the company said the full-year outcome is likely to be "materially worse" though "significant management action" has reduced costs and improved customer service.

Even though Invensys claimed that Baan was breaking even a year after it was acquired, there have been growing signs that the company was not a goldmine, and recently Invensys has been forced to deny rumors that Baan was to be sold off.

Chief executive Rick Haythornthwaite said Invensys wants to keep "a business with a good technology, loyal customers and a growing market and we're committed to make that happen". He said the potential for performance improvement in the discrete manufacturing sector is "enormous".

However, Baan's failure to make progress at a time when market leader SAP is holding its own in difficult market conditions suggests that it is losing market share. Invensys has been heavily criticized in the investment community for its poor performance, and unless its can turn Baan round quickly, there will be strong pressure to sell the operation.

In the news this morning

Telegraph

By Yvette Essen
(Filed: 20/02/2003)



Invensys in deep as blue chips flounder

British engineering group Invensys continued to be punished for last Friday's profits warning as it tumbled to a new low. It led the list of blue chip losers, falling 2.25 to 17.75p as 75.2m shares changed hands, compared with the average volume of nearer 25m.

Jonathan Hurn, engineering analyst at West LB Panmure, said investors are concerned the group will not meet its targets and is losing market share in certain sectors, such as the energy management division.

"People have lost trust in the management," he said. "It fell almost 50pc on Friday and people thought it would bounce back, but it has been deteriorating further."

In the wider market, the benchmark FTSE 100 was uninspired in early dealings and it eventually closed down 71.2 to 3658.3. Traders said pension funds had recently been selling out of their positions but were not coming back into the market.

They also whispered that a blue-chip company will be fund-raising in the market shortly. Life assurers Aviva, 27.25 lighter at 425.5p, and banks were cited as possible suspects. Goldman Sachs is thought to be involved.

Meanwhile, Wall Street retreated because of profit-taking and continued jitters about war with Iraq. When London closed, the Dow Jones was down 60 points.