Ben Bailey PLC (Housebuilder).
The Mail today said to buy Bellway as they looked very cheap. BBC is cheaper still and is constantly overlooked by analysts.
I am lucky enough to have been in this one for years, and as 2005 started, it hit 500pps. After interims that said it was affected by the slowdown in the market, and the general malaise in the housing market, it has plummeted by 30%. But is this overdone?
The basics make it look very cheap. Trading on a P/e ratio of 3.508 as compared to Bellways ratio of 6.279 it has a similar dividend yield (3.198%). Having read the investors reports it appears the market did overreact, as hidden behind the headline of being affected by the market slowdown was an increasingly large landbank and a move away from their traditional stock of 3 and 4 bed detatched homes and into semis and townhouses, to increase the margin on the land they own.
Further to this, they are specialists in brownfield development, which the government is known to favour and operate solely in the north of England, where the housing market has been less affected than elsewhere.
January sees the year end results posted, and with all the above taken into account, as well as the predicted housing crash not happening, I see a return to the higher sp levels of late 2004 / early 2005. Add into this a 15pps dividend and I see a winner, both short and long term.
Thoughts anyone?
Alan

For anyone interested I've dug out these few quotes from the interims and other places;

(02/08/05) Interim Report: "...and will produce volume growth in the current year"


(29/04/05) ANN: ch - "All of these factors give the board confidence that we can deliver another set of good results in 2005"


(01/03/05) Annual Report: ch - "Currently our forward reservations are 20.0% higher than the same period last year. This coupled with the quality and breadth of our product range, together with the strength of the improved land bank, give the board confidence in producing satisfactory earnings in future years"

Turned out nice again!!
This is a very illiquid share.
Very small demand creates large upward movement.
Of course the reverse is also true, but the housing market looks more secure with every report that comes out.
Good gains and still going strong.
Alan

Only 15000 traded and a rise of 11pps.
What more can I say.
May see a bit of profit taking now, but the share is so illiquid, we probably wont.
Remember I said 400pps by late November.
I may have to recalculate that, but 430pps by xmas is most certainly on the cards.
Check the charts. This one is predictable and we will see steady rising from now to end Jan/early feb.
Alan

Well its motoring at the moment Alan - nice call

alan, i think you've got a trespasser!

Another good start to the day. Can it keep it up?

Its motoring today Alan

Another 10% by new year, Baz. I hope!!!

This thread started at 365pps. Now 399pps. Thats almost 10% in under 2 weeks.
Evidently it can't go on at that rate, but it is following, uncannily accurately, the graph for the previous two years.
Last year it peaked at over 500pps. I don't think it will hit those heights again soon, but I do believe we have a steady rise in front of us between now and the end of Jan.
Alan

And theres the four quid I said by late November. It's early. Sorry I got the timing wrong, but I do think it will drop off again alittle before climbing some more!!!
Alan

Nice strong finish to the day, almost back to its intra day high after an earlier fall back.
Wheres it going tomorrow?
haven't got a clue, but it's generally upwards for the next couple of months, I hope.

Another good day for you Alan - was beginning to wish I had switched my KIE, but they too are nicely blue today. Sector nearly always has good run Nov-Mar and hopefully this time no exception.

Fingers crossed, Partridge.(For KIE as well)
Alan

Well 2 weeks since this thread started and we've seen a rise of about 12%.
Will it go further? I think so.
Will it go in a straight line? I doubt it, nothing ever does.
Where is it going tomorrow? Your guess is as good as mine. Probably better, but the day finished stongly, as it did on Monday, and thats often a good sign.
Alan

Another good strong day. It's a boring old share, this, cos the news flow is nil, so unless there is anything dramatic, I'll drop the daily commentary.
Still think theres a good few miles left in it, but as it has risen so well in the last couple of weeks, I think it will drop off for a week or so before starting a year end surge.
Anyway, I'm bored of talking to myself.
Alan

I also think there are a few miles left in it, maybe up to 440p before some consolidation. When does it go ex-div? As it seems to be repeating last year's pattern on the chart I intend to hold into the new year. Good spot Alan.

Its repeated it for the last 2 years now, Suth. I've held for about 8 years now, and what started as my first ever share, and a speculative punt, has become a lovely divi payer for me!
Back in a mo with the ex divi date.
Alan

Doesn't go ex divi till April next.
Alan

PS,
Nice to know I'm not on my own with this one. 8-)

I bought them following your earlier posting and my investigation on this and the sector in general. Looks like it may be one to move in and out off if predictability holds and take some capital as well as good income from it; that is, if it isn't taken over first. Will keep you posted on what I do with BBC.