I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

TAN tried again for 200p but once again fell back. Still hanging onto that steeper channel, but rather tenuous. Still think a smallish correction is due to the region of 180p-185p. RSI is rather inconclusive now, but MACD still capped by a resistance line and continuing to ease off.

pth

i posted the following on the SOLA thread in response to a childish outburst from a certain memeber, but it has some relevance here ......

it is a common misconception, that investors who make use of charts (of which there are many varieties), are stupid enough to think they are the Holy Grail, which of course they are not, though they are very useful tool ....... nevertheless it takes a narrow-minded bigot (none spring immediately to mind!) to refuse to accept that charts and market/share movements are inextricably linked, not least because so many PI investment decisions and computer trading programmes are (effectively) based on or triggered by them ...... thus, whether illogical or not, charts are frequently self-fulfilling.


I'll just expand on charts just a little, though i confess no real knowledge or expertise whatsoever .......

i am a thicko, so i just use the very basic charts that are available on MAM from which i can easily read various daily moving averages and also the rsi ..... on occasion i will also insert a x-hair to highlight a certain price level .... these basic charts will also show up historical price movements and also give a simple straight line indication of where support/resistance could well lie.

PT is a much more sophisticated and intelligent chap, so he can work with and understand a much more sophisticated form of chart which allows the insertion of various lines and angles connecting salient price levels etc ...... for all that it is not entirely surprising that both PT and I often reach the same conclusion, but from slightly different angles, if you will excuse the pun.

finally, my very clever friend who works in the City, uses something called GANN theory, which is a rather more sophiticated version of PT's ...... this works not only on salient price levels, but also incorporates time angles and/or % rises/falls.

However, i would repeat for followers of this thread and even for the odd narrow-minded bigot who may read this, that charts can never be the Holy Grail or we would all have a huge stash of cash and/or private islands and very large yachts ...... a chart is a tool to help investment decisions ..... the amount one relies on them is personal, like any other investment decision.

Morning Mr C and Mr P. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and experience in this, it makes for some better informed decisions all round.

Can I ask, is TA applicable for all market caps and industry sectors. I presume that it is more 'robust' for larger caps with greater uncertainty for minows or younger Co's.

Anyway, I am currently following a smaller oiler OEX (Oilex) and wondered if this type of analysis is appropriate for them. They are dual listed in UK and Australia. If you have an opportunity to examine it for me I would appreciate your comments.

Thank you.

MR D ..... in answer to your Q, the simple answer is yes ..... however, minnows by cap rather than sp have such restricted liquidity, that their share movements can be easily and significantly distorted by relatively small purchases or sales; on e would hesitate to use the word manipulated!

I would concur, and as I bottom fish in the small caps department, I find TA of limited use, although that said it would be better if I undertstood it better.

Darradev

My answer to your question is an unreserved YES, but then you would probably expect me to say that. I also think you are absolutely right re your comment larger caps versus small caps and TA applicability. But I would say it's not the market cap that matters but the length of time in which a company has been established on which to build a picture, but I kinda think you meant that anyway. As far as OEX is concerned, oh yes indeedy.

I really like this chart. I know nothing about them, but it would appear they were admitted early 2006 and I would hazard a guess that they have income from production or at the least income from somewhere. This isn't the chart of a exploration company with the associated dips and highs dependant on drilling results

To the chart. The SP is in a great bullish channel and has found support on numerous occasion from the lower trendline, because of this, the trendline is very important to any future dips. The middle and upper trendlines of the channel are not quite so well pronounced but they serve a purpose. The current move is obviously up and the question is will it pop through the mid line or bounce off? Well, I can't answer that, but what I can say is that not only does it need to push through there it also needs to push through resistance at 73p, established from two previous highs (although not the all time high which is at 83p). There is certainly scope on both the RSI and MACD for such a move but it must be accompanied by volume. If it does push through this level, the stock may well enter a new phase as this resistance level should then become support. If it fails to push through keep a close eye on the lower trendline, any retracement MUST be supported by this line. Were I already invested in this stock I would at the very least set a stop loss at 60p and even consider taking profits if the price fails at 73p, with a view to buying back in at the support level.

Hope all that helps.

pth

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Good morning chaps, do you know what we used to call you technical guys, when in the service, the boffins in the back room.

Anyhow enough trivia, would you kindly take a look at the GDP thread, and perhaps add your most welcomed input.

Thanks and have a really nice day.

Dunno wot you are posting Thrush, cos you are in the squelch bin and there to stay. Do me a favour (and the rest of AM posters) stay off this thread, we don't need it cluttering up with your rubbish. A polite request.

When you point out the specific rubbish that I post I will consider your request, meanwhile I dont know your background but try some manners, they work much better than your obvious preference for ignorance.

Are you the now self appointed spokes person for AM?--THAT WOULD BE A RATEHR LIMITED APPLICATION and one of little value to total enlightenment.

Prima donnas can be so very /hypertechey would you not agree.

Thanks pth, I liked the look of the chart as well, but this was based on 'gut feel' and the use of a simple plastic ruler on the screen, so your more comprehensive analysis is reinforcing what I was thinking. I am not into the 'jargon' of TA but for me it looks like a repeating wave pattern on a two monthly cycle with an positive uptrend.

I provided some background on the OEX thread as to why I have chosen this particular share if you are interested.

Once again, thank you for your analysis.

Darradev, for someone who isn't into the 'jargon' of TA you are doing a good job - 'repeating wave patterns' no less. I will have a look at the thread, thank you.

pth

I'm a relative 'youngster' at stock picking but always looking to learn. Noticed your post on the OEX thread, looking for a quick update, the latest information (June 2007) can be found on http://www.oilex.com.au/

Many thanks Darradev, appreciated :)

oops, wrong thread :S

Personally, I'm quite partial to a Bollinger Band or two.

Time for some evening updates, starting with TAN.

Once again had a go at the elusive 200p and once again fell back. The SP has nearly fallen out of the bottom of the steeper channel, but perhaps a bit close to call. If there is a further dip rising support is now at 188p, so not much to be gained from trading in and out unless that particular level fails in which case I would keep a close eye on 180p and then 170p. RSI remains in its channel, the only indication of downward pressure would seem to be the MACD continuing its slow trundle downwards.

pth

I mentioned on the WNG thread earlier that the RSI had posted a confirmed buy signal due to a failure swing (if you wnt an explanation go back to the beginning of the thread. Essentially the RSI made a higher low today. Certainly anyone wanting to get in should do so with a certain amount of caution and I would set a stop loss in the region of 90p. Personally I would also like to see the RSI break through the downtrend resistance. Keep an eye on the chart, the downtrend may cause a few stutters if it does continue to recover and there are more downtrend lines to break through after that.

pth

My original analysis of SOLA predicted the SP sliding along the middle downtrend line and intitally this is what happened. Friday gave me pause for thought as it appeared to have broken through rising resistance. However, today has seen the SP dip below this line once more, although not in a conclusive fashion. I was curious as to why the SP bounced at 510p and looking back it's pretty obvious, I should have drawn this SP support line from the outset (der). MACD conitunes to turn up ansd the RSI is now sitting on what was a res line but now may become support. For what it's worth the SP is now sitting on the 50MA which may provide additional support. I wouldn't go long or short on this chart today, but as a holder I would wait for further direction before making a decision. Not much help I know, but it's not always clearcut :S

pth

I posted last ime around that I had changed my view on SCHE; I still believe it's a short waiting to happen, but from what level? Still room on the MACD and RSI for a further rise and now it seems to have found a footing above a resistance line (now support) and back in its channel (just above the lower trend line) it may well have a go at 600p. This might be the level from which to short where it meets the upper resistance of the channel, a seperate rising resistance line and the physcological 600p barrier.

pth

Maggie's I believe - EMG

640p proved too much of an obstacle today, coinciding with a bounce off RSI res, so not unexpected. I think I have spotted a different channel (white dashed lines)to the one previously drawn. This would appear to suggest that any downside is limited to that previously thought, so if there is a continued fall, 600p may well offer some support, rather than 575p.

pth