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How to profit from Betting Exchanges (BEX)     

Scripophilist - 27 Oct 2004 23:40


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Photomad - 05 Apr 2007 09:27 - 10258 of 10502

He's already out to 2.8 so can do it anytime.

Unlikely to shorten much in my opinion now with only a few hours to go and he's not starting until early afternoon.

compoundup - 05 Apr 2007 11:26 - 10259 of 10502

Not trading the golf atm. When unable to watch the screen I would have a trailing stop in place. In this case, I'm not sure about greening at such a high price either. If Woods has a good first round you should be able to green at a better price. At least you are in a no-loss situation until you green-up.

IMHO the only advantage of greening at this sort of price so early in the contest would be to provide funds for laying off other competitors and retaining a no-loss p&l. This is not so applicable in golf as it is in e.g. football because the other players are at such long odds.

Looking at Woods' price chart, the curve is getting fairly flat now so covering at 2.82 looks like a wise move.

This is how I would trade it. No doubt others would do differently.

Photomad - 05 Apr 2007 11:38 - 10260 of 10502

Thanks for your thoughts compoundup, I am definitely going to green-up b4 he starts his round as I think he is likely to win with the from he's in.

Also backed M Campbell @ 610 C Pettersson @720 & S Micheel @ 720.



Scripophilist - 05 Apr 2007 13:00 - 10261 of 10502

Tiger seems very, very short for the Masters. He is priced pretty much at certainty and in golf nothing is certain. I'd start with a lay for sure.

Fundamentalist - 05 Apr 2007 15:31 - 10262 of 10502

Scrip

will be trading the masters but wont get heavily involved till the weekend (unless Woods drifts heavily)

with regard to Woods, i think its something like 14 consecutive strokeplay events that hes traded at odds on in a row. would rather be a backer than a layer round augusta where on pure form lines he should be at best even money imo

Fundamentalist - 05 Apr 2007 15:36 - 10263 of 10502

as far as alternatives to woods go, the 2 i quite liked at the prices were Stenson and Di Marco, tho would sway towards the without Woods market to back them

Fundamentalist - 05 Apr 2007 15:39 - 10264 of 10502

Scoreboard

http://www.masters.org/en_US/scores/index2.html

Fundamentalist - 05 Apr 2007 15:45 - 10265 of 10502

also a link to the live masters radio under "interactive" on that site for anyone trading in running

Fundamentalist - 05 Apr 2007 15:46 - 10266 of 10502

If youre in the UK you can watch coverage of Amen corner via the BBC website

Fundamentalist - 05 Apr 2007 15:57 - 10267 of 10502

http://www.sportsline.com/golf/masters/video

the above link gives live coverage of amen corner from now and also gives full live coverage an hour before it comes on the TV

mg - 05 Apr 2007 18:48 - 10268 of 10502

Well I'm new to this business and have been having a few punts on the horses - which I know absolutely nothing about - and although starting reasonably well I started to lose so decided to have a look at the Masters.

Currently I lose if Tiger wins 'cos I've layed him at 2.8.
I've taken a relatively small punt on Ollie which I won't bother to cover but the nice one is Stenson where I backed him at 38 and have layed him at 15 - still stand to get a few bob if he wins.

All I need now is Tiger's odds to lengthen and I'll cover the loss ..... so if he starts storming I'm a loser but I would have thought he has to have at least one bad day ...... shurely :)

Scripophilist - 06 Apr 2007 19:10 - 10269 of 10502

mg, if you laid tiger at 2.8 you are well in the money, he is at 9's currently.

Fundy, I take your point but only a few dropped shots at Augusta and you can drop well down the field. Be interesting to see how Rose gets on in the second round.

I'm green having traded out on Woods now so I will use some of the profit to lay rose. He's been here before but two good rounds at Augusta would be a surprise. Also I don't have anything to lose now.

ptholden - 06 Apr 2007 19:19 - 10270 of 10502

Beginning to look like Laying Tiger was a good move, not a very good day yesterday and even worse today, although you never know. He's head and shoulders above the rest of the field most of the time, but anyone can have their day at a Major, you only have to llok historically at the no hopers who have won the Open. Personally I quite fancy Justin Rose if he can have a good round today, if not perhaps Vijay Singh.

Scripophilist - 06 Apr 2007 20:49 - 10271 of 10502

I've always looked at the tough courses and felt that an error is more likely than an eagle so I have always had a preferance to lay strong favourites. No idea who is going to win this one! A right mixture of players in the frame at the moment. It seems they make it harder each year and turn it into a bit of a lottery.

ptholden - 06 Apr 2007 21:32 - 10272 of 10502

Not very often at a Major does any one player stand out during the first two rounds, so very difficult to back a winner. I suspect though that backing Tiger more often than not would have reaped a positive P/L rather than negative. Certainly don't agree that it is a lottery, the player in the best form over 4 days will win rather than the best player over a year, although it may be the same person! I see Tiger came back strongly on the back nine, looking forward to seeing how he plays over the last two rounds. If he gets going the leaders are likely to crumble, his sheer presence on the Leaderboard applies enormous pressure, happens time and time again.

chartist2004 - 06 Apr 2007 22:38 - 10273 of 10502

Been looking at Man U stats this week, 31 games - lost 3 - draw 3 and no 0-0 scores,
so if one had backed every game 25 wins, or laid the draw each game 28 profitable results. Laying the Correct Score 0-0 would have resulted in 31 profitable trades, but at odds around 10/15 would one have the 'balls'!

Who said laying the draw was a no no?

Take a look at this site for more Soccer Stats http://www.xscores.com click on Soccer top left.

Have a good Easter all you Odds Traders, I'm away for a few days, see-yas Tues

ptholden - 06 Apr 2007 23:02 - 10274 of 10502

Actually CHartist, I just re-read my post re laying/backing the draw and I cannot believe what I wrote, think I must have been pissed or half asleep. What I meant to say was backing the draw is not a good move. I'll keep taking the pills :S

chartist2004 - 06 Apr 2007 23:18 - 10275 of 10502

Hi ptholden, no worries we all have our off days.

Cheers....

Scripophilist - 07 Apr 2007 10:13 - 10276 of 10502

Remarkable 'air shot' by woods on the 13th. Next time I miss the ball I'll be sure to alter the course of the club!

Scripophilist - 07 Apr 2007 10:16 - 10277 of 10502

"I suspect though that backing Tiger more often than not would have reaped a positive P/L rather than negative"

I've only lost once when laying a strong favourite on a tough course. Tiger may win this but I've found the price of contenders nearly always drift at some point in a golf tournament. Its a bit like a 100 field horse race in running.
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