Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

good girl.
do you give lessons ?

You couldn't afford me.

:o)

And up she goes.

:o))

And out. It could get a touch choppy between 1.2720 and 1.2750, imo, as some of the older support and resistance lines converge, plus it's footy tonight.

Usd/Cad short is paying off well at the moment -just locking in profits to see how far i can play it.

reckon the Euro and cable will recover from the lows (blows more like!!!) and then trend up again.

rgds
zarif

Long Euro/$ from 1.2732, but preparing to get out as no direction either way, and knowing my luck it will spike down.

Out for -12. Not had a good day overall - was well in the money at one time on stocks and watched it fly out of my wallet. May look back here a little later before I go bowling.

edit. Back - managed to win at bowls. Wish I could do it when trading. Hope you've not got longs on Euro/$, guys and gals!

I was hoping for some more legs....but all I got was:-



(Taken from "A Hearts and Lipstick Mouse Tracking Site")

;-)

Tut, tut, Doc. You were being nosey.

:o)

EUR/USD falling again this morning.

FOCUS Further euro rise could prompt ECB rate cut; euro selling less likely
null


---- by Christopher Anstey ----



LONDON (AFX) - The European Central Bank will probably have to cut interest rates if it wants to play a role in slowing the euro's rise, as other potential actions are less likely to have an impact, currency strategists and economists said.

As the rising euro starts to impact euro zone growth prospects and corporate profits, the ECB could increasingly consider a rate cut, particularly if the single currency rises above 1.35 usd, several strategists said.

Other actions, such as selling euros in the open market to prop up the dollar, are less likely, as the ECB could not expect to have the support of the US, analysts also said.

'All the jawboning and all the intervention in the world are not worth anything unless fundamental changes -- like a change in interest rates leading to a reversal of yield spreads -- are in the offing,' said Carl Weinberg, chief international economist at High Frequency Economics, explaining why a rate cut would be the most effective tool.

One of the key drivers of the euro's rise over the past several months has been the positive interest rate differential that the euro zone enjoys. Overnight rates in the US are 1.0 pct, while in Europe they are 2.0 pct. Two-year US Treasury notes yield 1.62 pct, against the yield on the two-year German schatz of 2.44 pct.

A rate cut could lessen that differential, and slow the euro's rise. The euro rose about 5 pct in the space of a month, when it hit its latest record high just under 1.29 usd on Tuesday.

Analysts said it could easily go higher, as US interest rates are not likely to rise in the near term -- especially if US job growth remains as muted as the 1,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month.

Former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff said in an interview this week with the German magazine WirtschaftsWoche that 'a euro exchange rate of 1.40 dollars is easily imaginable and a rate of 1.50 to 1.60 dollars is possible.'

Robert Lind, chief economist at ABN Amro, said 'we are still some way above a significant trough for the dollar,' noting that back in the 1980s, when the US had the sort of large current account and budget deficit financing needs that it has now, the dollar fell 40 pct.

The dollar's decline has been more muted thus far in the current cycle. The Federal Reserve's index for the dollar's value against a large group of major US trading partners, adjusted for inflation differentials, shows the dollar at its weakest since Nov 1997, but above the levels of the mid-1990s.

One of Europe's problems is that the dollar is not being allowed to depreciate against major Asian currencies, due to currency pegs or persistent dollar buying by Asian central banks. This leaves pressure concentrated on the euro and sterling, analysts say.

Projections of further euro/dollar increases leave traders and investors contemplating what European officials could do to slow the pace of the rise, which is starting to impact euro area economic and corporate data.

A stronger euro makes exports from the 12 euro zone economies more expensive, and imports cheaper. This would crimp the positive contribution to euro area GDP growth from net trade.

The impact is already being seen, according to ABN Amro research, which shows that euro zone export volume growth has been lower than the rate of expansion of export markets over the past year.

This means the euro area is losing global market share, said Robert Lind, chief economist at ABN Amro, in a news conference Monday on the outlook for 2004.

European companies are also feeling the effects of the currency's appreciation.

German software maker SAP said yesterday that the rising euro caused it to lose sales in its fourth quarter. Revenues fell 3 pct in Q4 compared with the same period in 2002. Taking out the effects of the euro's rise, however, sales rose 4 pct year-on-year.

Such developments have prompted European business associations and political leaders to warn about the euro's rise. Some, including German Economy Minister Wolfgang Clement last week, have called outright for the ECB to cut rates.

While not hinting at rate moves, this week the ECB made its strongest statements of concern to date about the euro's surge, with ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet saying Tuesday that European central bankers believe 'excessive volatility and brutal moves were not welcome and not appropriate.'

His remarks were echoed this morning by ECB governing council member and Bank of France governor Christian Noyer, who also said 'we'll remain attentive and vigilant to any currency moves.'

The comments have sparked a correction in the euro, which is fluctuating around 1.27 usd in afternoon London trading -- about 2 US cents cheaper than its record earlier in the week.

Analysts said this so-called 'verbal intervention' marked a new stage of worry by European policy-makers about the growth-depressing effects of the euro's rise.

But history shows this sort of intervention has little long-term impact, Weinberg noted at High Frequency Economics.

Another potential tool is intervening in the market to sell euros, a move some analysts said could come if European markets started to fall in response to declining euro zone competitiveness.

'Should we see equity markets being hurt by the dollar depreciation, financial market volatility increasing ... this would probably trigger foreign exchange intervention,' said Lorenzo Codogno, London-based economist at Bank of America.

But other analysts said that such intervention would not be effective unless it were done in concert with the US -- something that is highly unlikely.

'Any intervention (to sell euros and buy dollars) without the support of the US Treasury would probably be seen in the market as simply a reason to speculate against the ECB,' said Michael Klawitter, currency strategist at WestLB, with traders betting that the central bank would be unsuccessful in bucking the market's direction.

'People in the market who are expecting some kind of a joint statement about the dollar will clearly be disappointed,' he also said, as US policy-makers do not appear uneasy with the US currency's decline.

US companies have benefited from the dollar's decline, while US export growth jumped 2.9 pct in November to the highest level in three years. Nike Inc last month said nearly half the rise in its order book is due to dollar depreciation.

This explains why though Europeans indicate concern about foreign exchange moves, US officials have presented a benign picture of them, by stressing that the dollar's value remains above its long-run average, analysts said.

The low probability of coordinated euro selling by international monetary officials brings analysts back to the prospect for a rate cut by the ECB.

Cutting rates would be a 'less risky approach' than intervening to sell euros in the market, as it could be explained as a reaction to slowing prospects for growth in Europe, rather than a specific response to the euro's rise, Klawitter said.

He added that 'certainly the probability of a rate cut is fairly high,' if the euro rose above 1.35 usd. Such a move is 'not unrealistic' in the first half of this year, he said.

Charles Dumas, economist at Lombard Street Research, said he believes the ECB will cut rates if the euro rises to 1.40 usd, adding that the central bank could decide to back the reduction with outright euro selling thereafter.

In any case, analysts said they will closely watch the statements and press briefings around the upcoming G7 finance ministers' and central bank governors' meeting in the US Feb 6-7, for further cues on officials' views on currency developments.

Good morning all
see we have some eurozone gdp figures today, cable may be
a safer trade (!). what do the charts say for v$ today hillary?

I'm a bit of a fan of Boris Johnson and I try not to miss his regular weekly articles in the Telegraph.

Here's his latest effort, taken from today's Telegraph.co.uk:-

The hole in the heart of the euro
By Boris Johnson
(Filed: 15/01/2004)

Ah, Luxembourg, city of dreams! I realise that this is not a particularly promising introduction. Indeed, it sounds a bit like something in the inflight magazine of Sabena; but I mean it.

I love little Luxembourg, the gallant grand duchy (pop 375,000, mainly Portuguese guest workers). Many of my happiest hours have been spent in that pub in the gorge, gazing at the purling Moselle and drinking a Bofferding beer. Sid Gudder Ding Mid Bofferding is the slogan of this delicious stuff.

In the course of the long afternoons of my youth, when I was meant to be reporting on EU agricultural meetings, I brooded on this gnomic Letzeburgish. After deep thought I decided that Sid Gudder Ding Mid Bofferding means, roughly speaking, that you are on to a good thing with Bofferding.

And if ever there was a group of people conspicuously on to a good thing, it is the hordes of lawyers, from all over Europe, who will be descending on Luxembourg to drink the place dry, Bofferding included.

For the next six months the taxpayer will be coughing up the per diems of even more of m'learned friends than will be engaged in the Shipman inquiry and these lawyers will be disputing a case that is simultaneously ludicrous and potentially epoch-making.

The 15 judges of Europe's supreme court will break off from their arbitrations in matters such as the French desire to shoot ortolans out of season or the pension rights of transvestite spouses.

They will decide a question of momentous importance for the governance of the Continent: who is in charge of the euro - national governments or the federal institutions in Brussels? Summoning up all his courage, Romano Prodi, president of the European Commission, has decided to vindicate the European stability and growth pact.

You will remember that this stipulates that euro zone countries may not run budget deficits of more than three per cent; and that France and Germany recently decided to flout this rule, on what some might say were the wholly reasonable grounds that they have huge unemployment, stagnant economies, and could do with fiscal stimulus. All 15 countries are in the dock for either breaching the rules, or for complicity in the dereliction of France and Germany.

Gordon Brown himself faces charges of aiding and abetting; because the embarrassing truth is that Gordon may shortly exceed the three per cent rule, so frenzied has been his borrowing. And the outcome of this case matters deeply, because it goes to the heart of what is wrong with the euro, and the power vacuum at the top of Europe's monetary and fiscal system.

Let us suppose that the commission loses its case, after the lawyers have spent enough time browsing and sluicing in Luxembourg. That will mean that the stability pact is proved to be a farce. Governments will be able to run whatever deficits they like, and spendthrift governments will be able to free-ride upon the thrifty.

If the commission loses its case, it will mean that no one is in charge of the fiscal rules that are meant to underpin the euro and to prevent inflation. It will mean that no one has been shown to be the ultimate guarantor of the currency's stability.

If Romano Prodi and the commission lose their case against the 15 EU governments, it will be a disaster for the commission and for the credibility of the euro.

And what if the commission wins? In a way, that outcome is even worse. It means that Brussels will be allowed to punish the naughty countries by imposing "pecuniary sanctions" - that is, fines of 0.5 per cent of GDP.

You've got it: the penalty for running an excessive budget deficit is to have your deficit increased by Brussels! It is a piling of Pelion upon Ossa, a pointless infinite regress, and it is not at all clear how it is supposed to work, or how the fine will be collected, or whether the fine will be increased when the fine has been collected in punishment for the increase in the deficit.

And quite apart from the economic barminess, what is the political meaning of this action by the commission? It means that the Eurocrats in Brussels have not only gone against the opinions of the markets and most economists, who thought, on the whole, that breach of the stability pact rules was right for the French and German economies.

They have overruled the democratically elected politicians of those countries, not on the time to shoot ortolans, not on the rights of transvestites, but on their central functions of deciding how much money they may take from the people and how much they may spend.

Be in no doubt that if Britain were in the euro, and Gordon Brown exceeded the three per cent rule, the commission and the court would do the same to us. And, of course, it is in one sense a good thing that Gordon should be punished for excessive borrowing, and waste, and the squandering of taxpayers' money on gazillions of politically correct non-jobs as advertised in the Guardian. But he should pay that price at the polls, and not at the hands of 15 judges in a brown felt cube in Luxembourg.

There used to be a slogan even better than the Bofferding slogan, and that was no taxation without representation; and to have European judges or officials overruling the biggest fiscal decisions of elected politicians would deservedly prompt a revolution.

This case shows the hole in the heart of the euro. You either admit no one is in charge, in which case how can we have confidence in the currency? Or else you say that Europe now has a supranational monetary and fiscal authority, in which case, what price democracy?

The sooner we are given the chance to vote on this mess, the better.

(Boris Johnson is the (Conservative) MP for Henley and editor of The Spectator)

Ahh, good old Boris. You've got to love him. Always able to present a rational, consistent, argument devoid of any sterotyping and rhetoric. Also have to admire his ability to decipher a foreign languange by dint of beer and brainpower alone without recourse to anything so coarse as a dictionary.

On the other hand, the idea that, having laid down rules of economic theory, the commission should choose to test, and possibly change, them in the light of fiscal reality might not represent total chaos seems never to have occured to him. I love Boris for his completely naive, black and white, view of rules and complex situations. That's what makes him such an entertaining participant and chairman of 'Have I Got News For You'. Not sure it is such a good quality in an MP, though.

DocProc; first of all, i must advise you that 'legs' shown on this thread
are my property - no peeking allowed. However, now you have posted a very
good article on the euro, i might let you share.
Always liked boris - he's got a sharp knife to cut through all the bulls**t
that surrounds euro/politics.
I'm sure the british public are going to give the politicians a bloody nose
if and when we get a referendum. Still think the whole eec thing will end in tears.

Beeble,

The 3 day downtrend on the -$ is intact albeit that it's currently rallying from its lows. The resistance line is currently just below 1.835 ..... I'm going to see what it looks like when it gets up towards the line before trading it.

tvm hils
no position yet

hils-does cantors trade forex, i,m sure they do just cannot see any quotes on the site!

PB,

They trade March futs which sit below the cash market. Cantor spreads are very wide though. Try Fins for s/b.

EU seeks trade sanctions against U.S
Thu 15 January, 2004 11:18

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union has asked the World Trade Organisation (WTO) for the go-ahead to levy sanctions against the United States in a trade row, the European Commission says.

The sanctions, which could run to hundreds of millions of dollars of duties on U.S. goods, aim to force Washington to revoke a scheme under which local companies benefit when anti-dumping duties are imposed on foreign competitors.

"Given the lack of compliance from the U.S., the EU has today requested WTO authorisation to impose sanctions," the EU executive Commission said in statement on Thursday.

The WTO has repeatedly ruled the measure, known as the Byrd amendment, illegal.

Why do the futures (as quoted on CMC Spreadbet) sit so far below the cash market? The June futures, for instance, is consistently around 210 pts below the spot price.