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Most punters on these reality shows believe only the obvious will happenif you swerve the obvious some fantastic odds present themselves.Sabrina was 7/4 to get voted out last night.and 75/1 to win the contestI did hint that no way was she going to go and is now 31/1 to win the contestcrazy?but thank you very much
The Xfactor tonight is difficult to find a value bet Lloyd is around 4/5 to goDanyl just under 3s and 8/1 bar the twoI already hold good punts on Danyl and Joseph to win the competition at far greater pricesand will stickLloyd will almost certainly be in the bottom twoand with Walsh and Cowell almost a banker to vote against himit will be hard this week to look elsewherenot odds-on for me

Danni in fairness always saves the best singer so Lloyd really looks up against it.

Gino DAcampo is now trading at 4/6 to windont say much for his six rivalsthen there is the possibility that he might be unwell with jungle conditionsand have to leavewho knows?a strong favourite I agree but a crazy short priceand around 5/4 can be achieved coupling up the other six playersyou can also get 10s bar twoand with the knowledge that George has spoken sincerely about walking out.his 20% of the book would then have to be factored infood for thought?
Apologise for getting the format wrong on XfactorI did not realise that it was a total vote result SaturdayGod bless ya the outcome was good

George is drifting like the Kon-Tiki.get on quick folkshe must be walking!!!

The market always knows

4/9 Dacampo 17/2 bar.most of Georges drifting price trimmed off Genotradable value on others

Betfair unavailable Tuesday 1st Dec from 03:00am 11:00am

Sabrina is currently 1/2 for elimination tonightwith Justin at 7/4...the winner market also points to her leaving tonightI have traded her and still stand to lose money if she goesbut?at over 80/1 to win the Jungle and with only five other runnersI have been nibbling with a little more hard earned lolif she makes it tonight her odds will be slashed by around 60%giving instant successand a strong position I believe she is odds against leaving tonight and disagree with the marketstill tight though? I have backed Kim from the beginningand traded so do have more than a saverGeorges departure has helpedand if Gino gets a stomach bugnot too seriousthings would look very sweetGino has touched 2/7 todaythis is light hearted fun and earning at the same timefor the serious postersplease dont grizzlejust squelch!

Im A Celebrity odds are now around 2/13 Gino 87% of book11/2 the other three coupled 16% of bookGino and Kim are the only two that have 100% success rate with public votingJimmy the second fav at 13/1 was in the bottom two last night and behind Justin using current voting as the form line Justin is 31/1.Kim who I have held and traded from the beginning is 15/1...I will wait for one more elimination and review the situationif I have one?whoever is in the last two with Gino surely cannot be larger than 8s?that would make Gino around 1/10...

tabasco

I love your take on this. Thank you for your comments. Please keep posting.

Thanks Exec.

The final of Jungle tonight>

With the departure of Justine the book remains exactly the same on Geno 2/13...imo the majority of Stuarts voters went to Genobacked up by the severe shortening of his price yesterdayJustin followersI believewill again mostly move to the Italian Stallion with his slightly camp sideon a head to head Kim has consistently beaten Jimmyin fact like Genoshe has an unbeaten record in avoiding the bottom twowe know these votes are in the bag! Question is how many first time or floating voters are participating tonight?I would imagine like previous yearsit will be a three way vote with the third place then announcedthe phone lines will then open up again with the last two contestants votes rolling over? At the moment Jimmy is 8.7% of the bookand Kim 8% in a 2.6% over-round bookI am going to hang on until the 3rd place is announcedthen bail out with hopefully a good returnGino will win!but you dont have to be a genius to work that one out

That Gino can walk on waterhe is cooking food in the Jungleand cooking food on Ready Steady Cook right now?bbc2...

If Jimmy or Kim go first will Gino's price fall or do you think it has bottomed tabby ?

Not too familiar with the price action on these competitions , only ever follow BB but even then not the final night.

Sorry dilkeyboard red hotGino touched 1/20... 95.24% I done ok but it should have been betteras for Ginohe is off for a buona scopata

Just home tabby , thought sod it as I hadn't heard from you so piled in at 1.13-1.15 on gino while three left standing.

Soon as I did it odds got better but hey thats sods law .... watched the result in the pub .

... u know what tabby , I starting to like you (meldex aside) ... :-)

Drink talking lol?

XFactor 9th elimination tonightthese are the up to minute odds:-
5/6 Olly.11/5 Danyl13/2 Stacey37/1 Josephif you were to couple Olly and Danyl to be eliminated tonighttheir odds represent 84.53% of the bookthe way I read tonight isSaturdays performances was nothing special by all four singersOlly has been in the bottom two for the last couple of weeksso the form is therebut?if you take into account he was a short priced fav. to win the competition four weeks agohe does have voters out there which might come back in his hour of need?Danyl is defiantly Cowells fav. and he does not hide this factthese comments do without doubt influence the young votersso with Joseph as safe as Dil being Welshthere could be value in a small punt on the ditzy Stacey13/2 in what effectively is a three runner raceis generous oddsI have to be honest and say I have two nice bets from the beginning on Danyl and Joseph[Joseph is 4/9 to win Xfactor] both at double figure oddswith Danyl being my better result no point in smashing in on Stacey tonightbut I have had a small puntno advice intended just a bit of fundyor

Next General Election - Overall Majority
Conservative Majority.4/9
Labour Majority..13/1
No Overall Majority16/5
Any Other Party Majority219/1

The Tories would need 325 seats to have an overall majority in 2010...a small swing as from now might decide the election result. If Labours achieve 30% of the votes and the Conservatives 40%we would face a hung Parliamentif they achieved 41%they would win with an overall majoritya hung Parliament is more than possible .May 2010 is 2/5 for the next General Election

The assumption that the general election will be on May 6 was jolted yesterday after a surge of bets on a March poll.

The speculation, inspired by Conservative politicians and commentators, caused Ladbrokes to stop taking money on a March 25 election date after dozens of three-figure bets. Many of them were placed in the Westminster area, according to the companys spokesman, David Williams.

The rationale behind the date is that it would remove the need for a pre-election Budget. A Budget cannot happen until three months after a Pre-Budget Report. A March 25 election would require Parliament to be dissolved within three months, ruling out a Budget.

The argument made by Conservative MPs and advisers was that with the public finances in a such a parlous state, Alistair Darling would have nothing to cheer with a pre-election Budget.

Nice result on x factor tabby ... been nibbling at Joe myself.

Much better than those poxy horses you gave us :-)