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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Tellon - 27 Apr 2004 11:12 - 1057 of 11056

US: April consumer confidence (1500 BST), March existing home sales (1500 BST);

Coming Up...

hilary - 27 Apr 2004 13:23 - 1058 of 11056

BRUSSELS (AFX) - European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said market interest rates in the euro zone are low because of the ECB's success in keeping inflation expectations under control.

Confidence in the ECB's ability to control inflation keeps market interest rates low across the whole range of maturities, he said.

'We are delivering the best yield curve possible for Europe,' he told the European Parliament economic and monetary affairs committee.

Surveys have repeatedly shown that financial markets expect future euro zone inflation to be between 1.7 and 1.9 pct, exactly in line with the ECB's target, Trichet said.

If markets were less confident about the ECB's ability to keep inflation under control, then long-term market rates in particular would rise, with negative consequences for the euro zone economy, he said.

Trichet said the ECB's forecast of a gradual recovery in the euro zone economy has been consistent for several months and was confirmed at the last governing council meeting on April 1, when the ECB left its key interest rate unchanged at 2.00 pct.

Asked about criticism that he and other council members had fuelled expectations of a rate cut at the April 1 meeting, Trichet said fewer than 20 pct of market experts and economists were expecting a rate cut at the meeting and the majority expected rates to be left unchanged.

'We are one of the most predictable central banks in the world,' he said.

Trichet declined to comment on the impact of a possible rate increase in the US, but he said ministers and central bankers at last weekend's G7 meeting in Washington had agreed that the US and euro zone economies each have different 'assets and liabilities'.

The US has a very flexible economy that is able to quickly make use of technological innovation, but it lacks savings, he said.

The euro zone meanwhile has ample savings and capital but still has a lot of work to do on structural reforms, he said.

He said there was also a consensus that the statement on exchange rates at the G7's February meeting continued to capture members' views and the same wording was therefore retained in last weekend's communique.

Asked about the apparent inconsistency of requiring new EU members to join the ERM2 exchange rate system while the UK says it would not join ERM2 ahead of any euro entry, Trichet said two years' membership of ERM2 remains one of the Maastricht conditions for euro entry.

foale - 28 Apr 2004 07:12 - 1059 of 11056

Managed to exit my cable long at 1.7952 very early this am.

Sitting it out now, but with a downward bias in mind for later

Tellon - 28 Apr 2004 07:47 - 1060 of 11056

Still holding my long myself.

foale - 28 Apr 2004 08:03 - 1061 of 11056

Good luck Tellon...this is a market where many can win or lose depending on your time frame...

What else do you trade apart from FX...
I trade CFD's...though am doing much less than usual
in the current uncertain equity market

and have an equity portfolio which is not doing much either atm


Starting to short Cable again

hilary - 28 Apr 2004 08:03 - 1062 of 11056

I've actually gone short Cable myself this morning. It's a trade which isn't in accordance with my strategy so I've only taken a half size position. I'm not entirely confident and am therefore holding a tight stop loss.

He who dares Rodney.

:o)

hilary - 28 Apr 2004 08:05 - 1063 of 11056

Well, well. Tanked as I typed.

:o)

Tellon - 28 Apr 2004 09:33 - 1064 of 11056

Cable - Still Long intend to hold for a while.

Foale, I used to trade Stocks/Shares I think invest is a better word. I did quite well but I found i was making trades when there was no point due to the lack of action. I moved then to Future Contracts on indices mainly FTSE and Dow and then onto FX. I enjoy FX, very much.. I found concentrating on a handfull of pairs and the FTSE and Dow effected my ability.

Anyway to cut a long story short.. FX only now.. Currently through Spread Betting of sorts..

hilary - 28 Apr 2004 09:42 - 1065 of 11056

Stopped from my short for a miserly 5 pips. Serves me right for trying to be clever.

Agree with Tellon that Cable is still a long, although I suspect that upwards momentum could wane soon. A rising support line can now be drawn from the low of Friday to the low of this morning. A break of this line would provide a nice long stop loss and a good level to go short, imo.

foale - 28 Apr 2004 10:01 - 1066 of 11056

Interesting Tellon I have found that indexes and CFD's dont mix

Hilary that line you mentioned getting closer by the minute

Euro much stronger than Cable this am
The failure of Cable at 17965 early this am ..and only one attempt to get there...reinforcing my short stance...
though its by no means clear cut atm


Hilary since I asked Tellon what he traded...
are you a FX and small cap shares kind of girl may I ask

hilary - 28 Apr 2004 10:11 - 1067 of 11056

Support buying on the line takes it at the first attempt. Unfortunately, I have to pop out for an hour so I'll miss the action.

I'll answer your other question when I get back.

Tellon - 28 Apr 2004 11:30 - 1068 of 11056

foale,

The euro buying was weak yesterday, so imo its only catching up today what it missed yesterday. Both are at the same level. Imo..

On the 15min chart we have a wedge formation.. It will break soon its running out of space..

Only Italy numbers out this morning so not much left for the rest of the day maybe Mr Brown can help my "Buy the pound" cause..

Tellon - 28 Apr 2004 11:32 - 1069 of 11056

Oh as for your CFD, I never used Contracts for Difference myself. Spread Betting or Futures contracts mini's mainly. I would have thought CFDs would be similar..

Check out the FTSE Day Trading thread some excellent strategie in there.

Tellon - 28 Apr 2004 13:14 - 1070 of 11056

It looks like a failed triangle. Im already long otherwise I would fade it.

foale - 28 Apr 2004 13:55 - 1071 of 11056

No real news today so its scalp a few both ways
though mostly on the short side

Currently long off yesterdays lows

Tellon - 28 Apr 2004 14:16 - 1072 of 11056

Looks like a break down. My stop loss is at 17780 nearly reached.

foale - 28 Apr 2004 14:40 - 1073 of 11056

Tellon you should be safe there...as its just under the 200 ma...well on my 30 min chart...that and the fig buying gave good support...
I should have gone longer in bigger size

Intersting how the three of us posters you me and Hilary...all trading Cable but me looking over the shortest period...you in the middle perhaps and Hilary looking for the biggest moves over some days/weeks..

I am stopping for the day now....looking at my CFD's in NY time...took out over 200 pips in all today...incl the initial spike up to 1.7953

Tellon - 28 Apr 2004 14:43 - 1074 of 11056

Its all about what your comfortable with.

Tellon - 28 Apr 2004 15:16 - 1075 of 11056

Ive been stoped out of my GBP Long

I have seen my fib lines on EUR/USD & GBP/USD just be broken.

Short GBP/USD @ 17797.5 (Target 11700)
Short EUR/USD @ 11847 (Target 11760)

Short Term Trades.

Tellon - 28 Apr 2004 19:52 - 1076 of 11056

Closed for a total of 100pips.
loss of 150pips on my gbp long.
-50 overall.
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