up another 10% with 3m traded already


gordon geko - 15 Oct'04 - 16:27 - 37 of 41 edit



where too next week ?


Andy - 15 Oct'04 - 17:58 - 38 of 41


gorndon,

well IF the weekend newspapers mention FOGL, we may continue with the rise for a while, but not sure how anyone can predict with any degree of accuracy where the price will end up.

I still feel it has more to go, as there is massive potential here, so may well top up on Monday.


wilbs - 15 Oct'04 - 19:11 - 39 of 41


I agree, there is a masive potential here but not for a few years. DYOR and you will see why. Im gonna buy but will wait till it drops in price.

wilbs


Andy - 15 Oct'04 - 19:44 - 40 of 41


wilbs,

I have DMOR, I have read the prspectus several times.

Potential is what is being traded here, and IF a resource is confirmed, FOGL will race away.

I'm buying now in order to be in at the start, rather than wait for the price to rise against me later, if of course they are sucessful.

Asian Energy is an example of a resource being defined, and look what hapenned there!

I am happy to hold at this level, and as for the price falling, maybe once the initial interest dies diown, unless they release some news of course!

we will see.



wilbs - 17 Oct'04 - 08:34 - 41 of 41


I totaly agree with you andy.

I have bought into many shares too early at a high price only to watch them fall and kick myself as I could of bought them much cheaper.
I will have to keep a close eye on things.

There is a good article on www.oilbarrel.com about FOGL.
Are you also thinking about buying into Hardman, Falkland Island Holdings?

Regards,

wilbs

the oilbarrel article
Falkland Oil & Gas Says Fundraising Oversubcribed
AFX News Limited Wednesday, October 13, 2004


Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd said its offer to raise 2 mln stg via the issue of 5 mln shares at 40 pence each has been oversubscribed. The group said it received applications for 17.45 mln shares, representing 6.98 mln stg. "As a result....applications will not all be settled in full," it said. The minimum subscription under the offer was for 2,500 shares, or 1,000 stg, and all valid applications will receive at least this amount, it added. "Applicants will also receive 12.415 pct of the amount they have applied for in excess of 2,500 shares." In a separate statement, Falkland Islands Holdings PLC said its shareholding will represent 18.1 pct of Falkland Oil and Gas's enlarged share capital.

London-based Falkland Oil & Gas Limited (FOGL) has identified eight leads from existing 2D seismic in its seven licenses off the southern coast of the Falkland Islands, spokesperson Ben Brewerton told BNamericas.

The leads range from 211 million barrels (mb) to 626mb and could contain a total 3.75 billion barrels, Brewerton said. Each of the seven blocks has at least one lead in it.

FOGL identified the leads by re-interpreting 2D seismic work carried out in the 1990s and it plans to redo some of the seismic in December this year, followed by a 3D seismic program in 2005.

The company could then consider farming-in a partner to help fund drilling on specific targets in 2006-2007, Brewerton said.

To fund the 3D program, FOGL announced it has raised 10mn pounds (US$18mn) through a private placement of 25 million shares at 40 pence per share, FOGL said in a statement.

FOGL has announced a public offering of a further 5 million shares at 40p/share, which must be subscribed by October 12.

If the offer is fully subscribed, FOGL will raise an additional 2mn pounds before expenses, meaning that the net proceeds of the placing and offer will be about 11mn pounds. The company would then list on London's junior AIM market with a market value of 32mn pounds.

Dealings in the shares are expected to start October 14. KBC Peel Hunt has been appointed as nominated adviser and broker to FOGL.

FOGL was formed in May 2004 as a joint venture between Falkland Islands Holdings, Global Petroleum and RAB Special Situations.

Shareholdings in FOGL prior to the placing and offer are: Falkland Islands Holdings 28.9%; Global Petroleum 25.7%; and RAB Special Situations 45.4%.

FOGL has a 77.5% interest in seven exploration licenses covering approximately 33,700 sq. km. to the south of the Falkland Islands. Australia's Hardman Resources has the remaining 22.5% interest.

About Business News Americas: Business News Americas is a multilingual news and business information service that covers the most important original stories in 11 different business sectors throughout Latin America everyday. Visit BNamericas to access our real-time news reports, 7-year archive, Fact File company

Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd said it placed 25 mln shares at 40 pence each to raise 10 mln stg before expenses.

The company, which expects its shares to begin trading on the Alternative Investment Market on Oct 14, also announces a public offer of a further 5 mln shares at 40p a share. Assuming the maximum number of shares available are subscribed, it will raise an additional 2 mln stg before expenses.

Falkland Oil, which holds a 77.5 pct interest in seven exploration licences covering about 33,700 sq km to the south and east of the Falkland Islands, will have a market capitalisation of 32 mln stg on admission to AIM and net proceeds from the placing and offer will be about 11 mln stg.

Following the placing, Falkland Islands Holdings PLC's interest in Falkland Oil will be 18.1 pct.

Andy why not add Aminex?

Woodside have secured the offshore rig the Jack Bates from Transocean for 2 years. Could this be for FOGL,I can't find out?(hence the sharp rise?).Any one know?

mad pad,

Not sure what is driving the SP up so much.

Woodside are not currently a partner of FOGL, so unless they are about to announce a JV, I can't see why that rig would be for FOGL. Hardman are the Australian JV partner of FOGL in most of the Falkland licences.

A 10p rise today is most welcome however, and a new all time high for FOGL!

Hi Andy, meant to get in this one this week, but can't be in them all or I'll be spread to thin.......

Andy ,got my wires crossed yesterday ,I was thinking of Global Petroleum who hope to drill in the near future off Kenya and are of course shareholders in FOGL.Anyone any idea why the rise?

mad pad,

No worries, you had me confused for a minute there!


What a rise on FOGL today!

20.5p, or 13.62% today, and that onm top of a decent rise yesterday too!

FOGL will have to issue an RNS soon, either to deny there is any reason for the rise in price, or to confirm news.

Incredible - in since float, so looking at 300% + gain.

There is a lot further to go, when oil flows - until then who knows where or why this will go short term. Only 25% of the shares are free, the rest being held by RAB Capital, so any demand will exagerate the SP movement (and vice versa, no doubt).

sd

Stockdog,RAB Capital,Falkland Islands Holdings and Global Petroleum are all major shareholders.

Yes, but RAB hold about 75% under an agreement whereby they do not have to or yet intend to make a full offer for the company, normally required in excess of 70% shareholding. Watch out if they decide to lighten the load on the way up!

sd

Stockdog,

If you bought in the IPO, you now have over a 400% gain!

No I have 400% value, less the 100% cost = a 300% gain! Simple arithmetical semantics.

sd

SD,

Ok!

Either way, a very nice scenario.

I still want to find out what is driving the price up, and I do think FOGL will have to issue an RNS soon.

Andy, me too - I hope the RNS explains why the rise, rather than says there is no reason! I'm feeling quite brave not selling out on this spike. But want to try to hold until oil flows commercially, when I expect SP to be 5 - 10 time today's price.

Tim Bushell's buy of 60,000 (presumably from fellow director Peter Dighton who exercised options and sold the smae amount the same day?) might have drawn attention to this stock, but in itself hardly warrants the big increase of 40% since then.

From the interims on 22nd December:-

Outlook

Complete 2D Seismic Survey - recording, processing and interpretation
in first half 2006

Introduce new participants by farm out in first half 2006

First exploration well targeted for 2007

There's not much more to be gleaned from the seismic other than the Chairman's encouraging remarks and drilling in 2007 is still some way off, so my guess is that news of (first) farminee is imminent and rumours are flying.

sd

Stockdog,

Yes, that's a fair assessment IMO.

When I spoke to the CEO at a presentation last year he said that their announcements were diliberately conservative, and they had found some amazing targets, and if they could obtain a rig there were some targets they would possibly drill from the 2D seismic!

No RNS this morning, and a tad down, so maybe people are selling due to the lack of an RNS today?

I'm holding for drilling is my current theory.

sd

Among the small caps, rumours of a link-up with an Indian oil company saw Falklands Oil & Gas advance 20.5p to 171p.


http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1709740,00.html

Interesting, Andy - Indian state oil or independent? Would they be a farminee or just substantial source of the capital needed for full drilling program next year? Anyway this is close to what I was driving at earlier.

sd

stockdog,

I am hoping for a farminee with access to a deep water rig, as well as being a company of substance financially.

I see we are stirring again today, now up 7p!

Andy
very deep water!
scary old spike. do you think it will fall back sharply or consolidate where it is?
sd

stockdog,

Wiithout news I think it will slide back somewhat, but there does appear to be a rumour, as two national newspapers have reported different rumours, so we shall have to wait and see.

One rumour I have read is that two or more of the Falklands explorers may merge, but I hope that isn't the case, as that would certainly result in the price falling IMO.

We need a deal of substance to maintain this price IMO.