AGM today and starting to tick up.



http://www.mediwatch.com/

Unbelievable - look at that chart and no interest over the past 2 days !

This is going to explode when the long awaited news comes out on the US deal.

It'll fall a bit afterwards for profit taking, but I've a feeling that the announcement of the China/Hong Kong SDA approval won't be too far behind.

There's a good probability that we'll see MDW moving past 30p very quickly when the momentum kicks in. I'm sure by that time this board will be so clogged, I won't be able to get a word in edgeways lol!

Hello, overgrowth, so you're here as well - growing all over the place! Looking good here - I like the chart scenery. All seem confident about the US deal and no smoke without fire, as they say. But why 30p?

Eric

Hi Eric - this one's a goodie for 2005 (and 2006 if you're longer term).

I can't claim the credit for these fundamental predictions (I posted them a few days ago - thanks to Irpy on advfn), though they look quite achievable to me:

"I guess 40m market cap is not too unreasonable in the medium term.

A very rough estimate assumes that the US market would amount to, say $17.5m, or 17.5 / 1.9 (exchange rate) = 9.2m, (average of last MDW estimate)and allow 1/2 as much again for everything else (pure guess).

Therefore, annual sales are expected to be 1.5x 9.2m = 13.8m. Since the p/e ratio is nonsensical atm, take the market cap to be 3x annual sales forecast = 41.4m.

The no. shares in circulation is about 91m and so the SP would be 41.4 / 91 = 0.45 or 45p.

Current price is 7.25p which makes this a potential 45 / 7.25 = 6.2 bagger medium term, imo."


I've gone for the more conservative 30p+, but I won't complain if we see 45p in 2005 :-)

Cheers

OG

overgrowth

Impressive as usual and in four minutes flat! Why the confidence that the US deal is imminent? OK the price move suggests something is happening but it could be an order announcement or Hong Kong and China. Suspect I need a bit of the action in any case!

Eric

Eric,

MDW announced FDA approval was gained in the US back in January 2004 and at that time they said that a distribution deal was under discussion and a favourable outcome was expected to be imminent.

Investors waited and waited for this "imminent" deal and then got fed up when they found out that there were legal issues to sort out around the middle of the year.

On the 8th of December Mediwatch issued the following RNS:

"Mediwatch plc (AIM: MDW), the high-tech medical diagnostic equipment manufacturer and supplier has settled legal issues referred to in the Company announcement dated 27th May 2004 which had delayed negotiations for distribution of its equipment in the USA.

Negotiations with potential clients are now resuming, with the aim of introducing an expanded range of Mediwatch equipment to the large and important American market.

Said Mediwatch CEO Philip Stimpson: " We believe that our products are the best in the sector, providing clinicians with innovation, quality and value.

"Moving into the USA will enable Mediwatch to compete for business in one of the biggest health care markets in the world."

With increasing life expectancy and an ageing population, prostate and urological conditions are among the fastest growing health problems encountered by doctors today."

Having had a year to work things out and with the legal shackles removed, and allowing a few days at the start of a New Year to get back into the swing of work and make business visits to the US etc., it makes sense that very soon we should be hearing about the US deal.

Of course, you may be right - it could be the China/Hong Kong SDA (State Drugs Authority) approval - great news as well because MDW already have the distribution partners on board in Asia and have shipped out a full range of products (so I would guess that with the global export experience of the board, they know that SDA approval is a formality).

OG

OG

Thanks for that. Just been splitting the terminal up which seems useful - need bigger screen though. Upside to downside ratio? Up to 40p; back down to 7.5p? Looks a v.g. ratio (10:1). Good patents? Competitive activity? Royalties payments? Expect you've gone to bed though!

Eric

Eric,

Still here - MDW have always operated a collaborative approach with companies operating in a similar field (see RNS's on Sonosite etc. for further info.).

Good point on patents and royalties - I don't have any details to hand, though will endeavour to find them - unless you get there first!

Cheers

OG

OG

Thanks again! Turned in before you! Dipped a toe in this morning though and popped 75K in the closet. Could be a good swim!

Eric

Thanks guys, got some at 8.35p last week and again this week at 10p, have I got the timing right for once!! If I have a large part is down to this thread helping my research. We could all enjoy an excellent year with MDW (hopefully).

andysmith

One good turn deserves another. I picked up your post on YOO decided to have a look and bought some today, already covered the buying price. So thanks to you, plus overgrowth and the rest of the team here. Good time to have found it, I'm sure.

Eric

Eric,
I personally feel that 2005 will be a good year for those willing to risk investing in some smaller stocks with sound fundamentals and products.
There are quite a few like MDW just waiting to take off, my other main hope as you know being SEO. From my understanding MDW has an excellent product for a market that will be massive worldwide, prostrate issues and urology issues are increasing but are now understood more than ever and screening for issues is essential which makes this a sure fire winner.

Here we go back down again, where's that deal?

I'm not in on this one yet but have been tracking for a while. I was disappointed to see the fall today. Anyone know why?

MS

getting weak sellers out!

Profit taking after last weeks rise

Looking to get some more of these - if I can dump a couple of my existing positions - one in profit the other a bit out of the money.

IMHO there are a few companies that come along where you can invest in their growth as well as approve of the market they are exploiting. This is one of them - as far as I am concerned. And, although that may seem an emotional base for my investment it is also guided by a hard nosed assessment of a real and present market for what is a fundamental set of tools for an ageing world male phenomenon.

Aids may be the biggie but Prostate related illness is an equally endemic challenge - for blokes, of course.

Hope we're right about profit takers or traders? but then I only got in a couple of weeks ago and was 20% up!
mg couldn't have put it better, I bet most of us know someone who has been tested for or had prostate trouble. Recovery has high %age and the need for the early diagnosis is paramount, even I've been tested for it. Luckily didn't have it but another problem found that I can now be treated before it was serious. The point, much needed product, that will affect everyone in some way, as Billy Connolly puts it, men reach a certain age when the doctor only becomes interested in your arse!! God could have created a better access, or is it Mother Natures revenge for the smear test/periods/giving birth etc etc.
If they get an approved MRSA test as well!!!
I'm not panicking, in fact if I had some funds left I would top-up.
Heart and head behind this one, great combo!!

andy - some traders were expecting news today and didn't get it, so it looks as though they've moved onto the next "flavour of the week".

MDW's results are due out in the next couple of weeks, also 2 major RNS's are expected and could be announced any time now. At least one RNS should appear just before results or more likely just after is my bet.

I think the MM's will mark the price down early tomorrow to "shake the tree" a bit and scare out some more sellers (they obviously have a whiff of good news to come and need to collect as many shares as they can to sell to eager punters).

Tomorrow morning could well be the best time to top up.

For anyone interested, this is the latest offering from the guy who psyched up the traders:

"The U.S deal is in the bag! and thats that.... On 27. 10. 04 the news about the Bard deal came out!! It was in the bag nearly 2 weeks prior to the news!!. Phone Philip Stimpson and ask him!!!!!!!! 01788 547888. Most of you guys know Jack Shit! about how these guys work!! You jump to infantile conclusions, and bingo, i'm filtered. Believe or not, ho gives a shit! you guys sell tomorrow, and i top up!!! who is """MAD"""??????? the guys who sell!!! MMs love you !!!!!!!!!"

how many other predictions has he made