Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Too right , gave myself a day off today :-)

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Forex News and Market Trend Wrap-up Thanksgiving Week, Dubai World, UAE Support, JPY Strength
Posted by Henry Liu on November 30, 2009 under Currency Trading Tips, General | Be the First to Comment

Last week was indeed a volatile week due to the low liquidity. And as I have warned in my last Weekly Outlook report about the excessive market movement from my previous experiences over the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays, this Thanksgiving didnt disappoint and certainly lived up to its reputation and then some

As a week that started with some mild risk appetite sentiment, but then the market started to take hints from FOMC Minutes on the Federal Reserves bearish tone over a continuing decline in the Dollar and unemployment rate, which echoed Fed. Fishers comments just a week ago, we saw USD getting sold off broadly against all majors, including the JPY

Fast forward to the opening of market this Sunday, (it is important that we put current market condition in the right perspective) JPY has made a 14-year high against US Dollar, largely due to the unwillingness of the current Japanese regime to intervene, but some of the capital flows out of riskier assets into JPY for the end of year asset allocation might also be partially responsible.

As Japanese officials are worried about the impact of the strength in JPY to its economy and equity market, BOJ might not have much of a choice in maintaining its new non-intervention policy. We should be paying more attention at chatters from Japan over this issue, as BOJ usually does not intervene during a strong rally, but as the rally recedes and market retraces, thats when BOJ jumps in

Important news that helped to push JPY back to this high level has to do with the possible default of Dubai World. As I have tweeted about this over the holidays, there are several articles written by Bloomberg on this subject, market took this as a strong risk aversion event, and stock market crashed while JPY strengthened in this low liquidity trading condition. As rumors go, investors were speculating that this fiasco in Dubai might escalate into a sovereign bankruptcy, as Dubai World has over 80 Billion USD of liabilities. However, with UAE stepping in to support Dubai, market is quickly reversing from the exaggerated move that took place last week.

If you dont know about Dubai world, here is a link on YouTube on their construction plan:

http://www.youtube.com/user/henryliuforex#p/f/0/kTyks-IRFPY

So what is likely to happen next after this huge and exaggerated Thanksgiving crash? I think we should remain cautious in the weeks to come as the liquidity starts to die down and big money moving out of the volatility into more secure instruments such as the JPY and USD. It is possible to see a limited reversal of what took place last week, but unless BOJ intervenes, we will probably not see the levels that JPY traded just a few weeks ago until 2010. However, the overall direction for the JPY is still unchanged in my opinion; if anything, Im looking to buy more EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY at their recent support levels as I am certain of the markets reversal and weaker JPY in the long term.

Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010

Britain risks becoming the first country in the G10 bloc of major economies to risk capital flight and a full-blown debt crisis over coming months, according to a client note by Morgan Stanley.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6693162/Morgan-Stanley-fears-UK-sovereign-debt-crisis-in-2010.html

Scaremongering for political purposes imo MM.

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Still yet to read this thread and Dil's pm.

Reuters quotes a Japanese government agency as saying a quake has struck eastern Japan. No word yet on intensity.

Be aware that heavy earthquake damage has led to JPY strength in the past. Japanese insurance companies park lots of cash in higher-yielding overseas assets and are sometimes forced to bring cash home if claims are large enough.

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Morning all.
According to the radio news, a three metre wave has hit one of the solomon islands.

Was it Stacey Solomon?

:o)

Who??!

tyketto: get with the zeitgeist!

Nah.
After doing a Google,I still don't see a reason to buy a telly.

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jeff, have you tried the virtual mt4 thingy?

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